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After releasing the latest data related to COVID-19, LSD warned that a third wave of coronavirus transmission was currently starting in the country.
“It appears that we are initiating the third wave of the pandemic. Lithuania’s trajectory has changed in the space of two pandemic indicators and has returned to the old tracks it was driving in October,” the report says.
Although such a message may seem like a terrifying prophet of the near future, Vaidotas Zemlys-Balevičius, a data scientist with the Government’s Expert Advisory Council, said he was confident that such a message would be something of a wake-up call. call everyone.
“We have a high enough epidemic level that we cannot afford to relax. So it is better to panic sooner rather than later,” he told the portal.
As LSD itself later revised its turn, the institution wanted to draw attention to the worrying trend of an increasing proportion of positive tests.
“Our goal was to get the attention of epidemiologists, who should continue to comment,” said Birutė Stolytė of the department.
According to the Department of Statistics, the number of new daily cases is no longer decreasing, the proportion (percentage) of positive diagnostic tests is growing.
“This pattern has been going on for a whole week, but now there is no question about it,” the report said.
Evaluate as a benchmark
When asked why the third wave was suddenly talked about during a pandemic, the scientist explained simply.
“We have a curve that is falling. There must be a zero period before the wave rises and the start of a new wave is that zero period. When you hit zero, that’s the start of the wave. I’d say it’s more about semantics when defining the beginning of a wave.
That swell is a normal process. Normally we should get close to zero cases and then go up again. But we did not start from zero, our speed stopped, so we have to reach the limit from which, it is a question of where we will go ”, he explained.
According to V. Zemlio-Balevičius, it is possible to ignore this and hope that everything is fine: the stop is temporary and we will continue going down.
“But there is no reason to say so. On the other hand, we can say that we make decisions based on data and they show that we have stopped. And the stop is the beginning of the third wave. The size of that wave is up to us: whether it will go away, it means it won’t, or whether it is a real start.
I am of the opinion that we do not have to influence each other, as was the case in October, when that increase was marked and no action was taken. Maybe we will let you know before, start to respond normally. This does not mean that we should panic, but let’s say that the situation has changed, “said the researcher.
According to the interlocutor, the details are currently being debated instead of looking at the bottom.
“What a difference, be it the third wave or the second, maybe just the first, the problem is that the speed of the epidemic has stopped. So let’s waste energy on solving the problem, not arguing, on how to name it, “added V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
NVSC: this is a continuation of the second wave
The National Center for Public Health (NVSC) says that the fluctuations observed in certain indicators are a continuation of the second wave of coronavirus.
“According to experts, although fluctuations are observed in certain epidemiological indicators, a continuation of the second wave is still visible,” said the comment sent to BNS on Monday.
The Department of Statistics warned this Monday that the third wave of the spread of the coronavirus in the country is currently beginning.
“It appears that we are initiating the third wave of the pandemic. The Lithuanian trajectory turned around in the space of two pandemic indicators and returned to the old tracks, which were boosted in October,” the department said in the report.
According to him, the number of new daily cases is no longer decreasing, the proportion (percentage) of positive diagnostic tests is growing.
Public health experts, for their part, say the recent decline in the number of cases may be due to “the decline in laboratory tests, so the situation should be viewed with caution.”
Certain indicators are concerning
The fact that it is too early to talk about the third wave was confirmed by the country’s chief epidemiologist, Loreta Ašoklienė. However, he noted that some alarming signs were being observed.
“The situation is related to the fact that we see that the decline in the number of new cases has stopped, the number of new cases is no longer falling as fast as we were used to. (…) The most worrying thing is the percentage of positive studies that has increased. “We had 7.1 percent a week ago and now we have 7.8 percent,” he said.
According to the epidemiologist, although the rate of new cases in the last two weeks is 100,000. The population is smaller than last week, but the average number of new cases in the last seven days is similar to that of a week ago.
According to the epidemiologist, this morbidity situation is related to the mobility of the population that occurred after the release from quarantine conditions.
“During the past week, the mobility of the population has increased and has practically returned to the period before the quarantine, which is the most worrying. We have been following the changes in mobility since last Monday, people began to move more, the increase in mobility has been maintained practically every day of the week, “he said.
263 cases and 6 deaths
263 new cases of COVID-19 were identified in the country last day, six people died, the Department of Statistics said on Monday. Hospitals are currently treating 992 COVID-19 patients, 95 of whom are in resuscitation, 815 patients are receiving supplemental oxygen, and 58 patients are receiving artificial lung ventilation.
In Lithuania, since the start of the pandemic, COVID-19 has affected 194 thousand people. 333 people. Incidence of coronavirus infection in the last 14 days 100 thousand. the population reaches 242.9 cases. At that time, the percentage of positive tests reached 7.8 percent in 7 days.
Statistically recovered and there are currently 179 thousand alive. 624 people, declared – 131 thousand. 245 recovered. Statistically, there are currently 8,122 sick people, the declared number of patients is 56 thousand. 501.
A total of 3,178 people died in Lithuania from COVID-19. 6,180 deaths have been linked to this infectious disease, directly and indirectly.
There was no vaccination on the last day. In Lithuania, the first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine was administered to a total of 121 thousand people. 150 people, both doses – 67 thousand. 14 people.
Last day 2,952 molecular tests (PCR) were carried out on the presumed coronavirus in the country, for a total of 2 million cases since the beginning of the pandemic. 44 thousand 653.
In addition, 58 antigen tests were performed daily. A total of 29 thousand of them were made. 588. The proportion of positive diagnostic tests in the last seven days reached 7.8%.
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