Recent ratings: change in attitude towards “peasants”

Rating Variations

The most interesting change is in the match leaderboard. A certain delay with respect to the Union of the Homeland – Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD) has reduced the difference between the LVŽS to a minimum.

Ignas Zokas, Director of Public Opinion and Market Research at Spinter Research Delphi He said that the clearest thing in this public survey was the growth of LVŽS.

“As the political autumn approaches, it can be said that the ruling peasants leveled their positions with the conservatives, who had been at the fore for some time, they too went ahead in terms of the nation’s sympathies. Now it can be said that these positions before the elections are quite balanced, this fight will be quite interesting, “said the sociologist.

According to him, there is currently no notable opposition to political options, but the poles are quite clear. He also predicted that an interesting election campaign and a possible second wave of coronavirus must be adjusted.

In June, 16.4 percent would have voted for the National Union. of those surveyed, in July this number dropped slightly to 16.1 percent.

The result of LVŽS, although within the margin of error, increased. In June, 12.9 percent would have voted for this party. survey participants, and in July this number increased by almost three percent to 15.6 percent.

In the third position of the party leaderboard is the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party (LSDP). Since June, when they would have cast 8.8 percent of the votes for them. survey participants, the result improved to 9.8 percent in July.

Fourth in the party classification table is the Liberal Movement. In June, 5 percent of those polled would have voted for this party, and in July, the result increased to 6.2 percent.

Fifth on the list for this poll is the Labor Party. His rating has stayed about the same since the last poll, with 5.2 percent voting for the party in June. surveyed, and in July – 5.3 percent of respondents.

Who is more in favor?

Kęstutis Girnius, associate professor at Vilnius University Institute of International Relations and Political Science (VU TSPMI), also stated that the clearest message from these ratings is the equality of results between conservatives and peasants.

“The most outstanding thing is that the peasant rating has strengthened, now the difference between them and the conservatives is only half a percent. The Social Democrats have improved somewhat, very modestly, and the Labor Party. So, in other words, the dominance of the left seemed to have turned a bit in July, more to the left than to the right, ”he saw trends.

According to the political scientist, although the result at the party table should make farmers happy, other data should concern them: it is not clear how long this trend will continue.

“I think farmers should be comforted by the fact that as the popularity of Socdems grows, they have almost reached 10 percent. And peasants and society are more likely to find common ground. “There is some basis for a coalition government,” he said.

K. Girnius Delphi He said the summer political season and the fact that the opposition is hard to see did not allow the conservatives to cultivate the result they had.

K. Girnius, associate professor at VU TSPMI, also did not want to participate in predicting the winners of the Seimas elections.

“The survey was carried out in the second half of July, it has not yet accelerated the electoral campaign, although it is not clear how it will be in these conditions. However, it seems that there is no major advance among the right wing forces, which is more likely to be formed, ”he assured.

The opportunity for the right is the performance of the Freedom Party in the elections.

“If the Freedom Party does not exceed the 5 percent limit, then it will definitely be useless for the right side to wait for the formation of a coalition. I think the Socdemas think rationally and understand that they have more similarities with the peasants and it would be a bit easier to live with them than with conservatives, “said the interlocutor.

Speaking about the survey method, I. Zokas, director of Spinter Research, said it could also affect the results.

“The way the poll is conducted can also affect party ratings. Let’s say we always get more support for conservatives and peasants on the Internet;” face-to-face “polls are usually favorable,” he said of the trends.

Draw a possible coalition form

Professor Lauras Bielinis from Vytautas Magnus University (VMU) stated that LVŽS’s growth in the party leaderboard was determined by the controlled crisis.

“Let us not forget that the peasants are the political force that has taken responsibility for the welfare of Lithuania and the management of the pandemic situation. They work and do it with enough energy. Not everything may have been done completely, there may be mistakes, misunderstandings , but that activity has paid off, the public sees them, appreciates them and causes a very clear public relations effect, “he said about the latest ratings.

He said that it was already quite obvious that the great fight of the next Seimas elections would take place between conservatives and peasants.

When asked if we can already see the framework of the future coalition, L. Bielinis said that although unpredictable dichotomies of single-member electoral districts cannot be forgotten, the situation is now more favorable for the peasants.

“Now we see that the situation is more favorable for the peasants, because the Social Democrats have a fairly high percentage, the Labor Party too. The farmers can communicate with them and are genetically closer. Regardless of how we talk about the possibility of companies cooperating with the Unión Patria. That possibility exists in theory, but is very difficult in practice. ” Delphi said L. Bielinis.

5 percent of the cartel would not jump

Other parties evaluated in the survey would not cross the 5 percent barrier.

The Freedom Party has not changed the poll result since June, with 4 percent of respondents voting for the party in both June and July.

The new party “Freedom and Justice” is located next to him in the party classification table, in June 3.2 percent of respondents would have chosen this party, the July poll shows that the result has increased a little – to 3.8 percent of respondents.

The following table lists the Polish electoral campaign in Lithuania: the Union of Christian Families (LLRA-KŠS). Since the June poll, support for this political force has declined somewhat, with 3.7 percent voting for the party in June. surveyed, in July – 3.3 percent.

Since the last poll conducted by Spinter, the Center party “Gerovės Lietuva” has also improved its result. According to a poll carried out in June, 1.7 percent would have voted for this party. of respondents, and in July – 2.4 percent of respondents.

4 percent of those surveyed said they would vote for another party not on the list, 11.7 percent. respondents said they would not vote, and 17.8 percent. respondents did not answer the question or did not know why to vote.

Zok said that the 5 percent of the parties that did not cross the sign still had a chance.

“As for the smaller parties, this is the new entity” Libertad y Justicia “; you can see that the party did not completely separate its old electorate from those remnants. They are likely to be contenders for exceeding the 5 percent cartel. “, – Delphi spoke to the director of Spinter Research.

Alarm

The situation of the most suitable candidates for the post of Prime Minister in July, although without major coups, changed slightly.

Ingrida Šimonytė, a member of the Seimas and leader of the Union of the Fatherland list, remains the leader of the list, although her result has decreased since the poll conducted in June. In June, 18 percent of respondents named her the most suitable candidate for the prime minister’s post, and in July, the result fell to 15 percent.

A similar trend is observed in the valuation of Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis, although his position on the list did not change, he remained second, but the result also melted. In June, 16.7% named S. Skvernelis as the most suitable candidate, and in July, 13.5%. surveyed.

When evaluating the change in these results, I. Zokas said that they are mainly influenced by the political summer season.

“We can interpret that there is more summer influence here,” Zokas said.

K. Girnius, a political scientist at VU TSPMI, said the most suitable candidate for the post of prime minister, LVŽS, must also see a red flag.

“But if I were a peasant, I would not be very happy either, because I. Šimonytė is still ahead of S. Skvernelis in the table of what is best suited to be Prime Minister. (…) So, the popularity of the party is growing, but the popularity of its leader has stopped and is not advancing, “he said.

“I do not emphasize this result, but it is interesting that in July the qualifications of all the people on that list, except I. Šimonytė and S. Skvernelis, increased. This can be demonstrated by the general conviction that they are clear candidates, but there is no a lot of enthusiasm ”, said K. Girnius.

L. Bielinis saw these changes as a mandate of confidence given by the public, but a lack of clarity.

‘ME. The personal results of Šimonytė and S. Skvernelis are entirely related to the parties. Both have declined as a result, but here we must realize that both are seen as quite supportive of being able to run for prime minister. (…) The public is waiting for a decision when it is very clear from both – I go to politics because I want to be the prime minister, ”said the political scientist, explaining that then it will be clear to the people whether they want a prime minister or not.

The remaining top candidates got support

The results of all the other politicians on the list have increased.

Third on the list is the leader of the National Union, Gabrielius Landsbergis. In the latest poll, 3.2 percent named him the most suitable politician to hold the post of prime minister. of those surveyed, and in July this result rose to 5.8 percent.

He is followed by the former Minister of Transport and Communications Rokas Masiulis. 4.1 percent wanted to see him as prime minister in June and 4.8 percent in July. surveyed.

The Social Democrat Vilija Blinkevičiūtė continues to hold relatively high positions, her result was 3.4% in June and 4.3% in July. surveyed. The assessment of the mayor of the city of Kaunas, Visvaldas Matijošaitis, as a possible prime minister was 2.4% in June and 3.1% in July.

The Minister of Health, Aurelijus Veryga, is also on this list. Since the last poll in June, his result has been growing: 1.5 percent wanted to see him as prime minister in June and 2.9 percent in July. survey participants.

Eighth on the list is Labor Party leader Viktor Uspaskich. In June, its result was 1.8 percent and in July, 2.8 percent. surveyed.

The ninth and tenth places on the list are shared by two politicians: the Social Democrat Vytenis Andriukaitis and the leader of LVŽS, Ramūnas Karbauskis. In June, V. Andriukaitis received 1.9 percent support. of those surveyed, R. Karbauskis – 1.7 percent. surveyed. In a July poll, both politicians reached 2.6 percent. support from respondents.

The government’s assessment has improved

According to those surveyed, the government’s assessment is also more positive.

The proportion of people who evaluate the Government’s activities positively and quite positively has increased since June, when it was 36.7%, to 38.5% of those surveyed.

Respectively, during this period, the proportion of those who evaluated negatively and quite negatively the activities of the Government also decreased from 55.6 percent. of those surveyed in June to 53.6 percent. in July.

The proportion of those who did not know how to answer the question or did not answer was 7.7% in June and 7.9% in July.
K. Girnius said he was surprised by this result.

“The negative evaluations are stronger, one would think that in the current context of coronavir control, the economic recession, perhaps the smallest in Europe, to have such indifference would be a bit worrying,” he said.

“If you overcome the crisis and still have a negative view of the government’s work, it surprises me.” Delphi said K. Girnius.

Vytautas University political scientist Magnus L. Bielinis noted that the number of people who positively evaluate government activities has only increased.

“It just came to our knowledge then. Quite stable here, the attitude towards the Government is related to the situation that has stabilized in society: the solution of the pandemic problem, the directions of economic and social problems that are acceptable to In this way, the public reacts and shows a sufficiently stable attitude towards the Government, “said L. Bielinis.

From July 16 to 26, 2020, the market research and public opinion company Spinter tyrimai conducted a public opinion poll commissioned by the Delfi news portal. The study included residents aged 18 to 75 years.

Combined survey method used: 50 percent. Face-to-face survey, 50 percent. The Internet.

In the case of a face-to-face interview, the interview is conducted by a professional interviewer. Make a conversation with the interviewee according to the prepared questions, recording the answers in a questionnaire.

In the online survey, a link to the survey is sent to the respondent, which the respondent independently completes at a time that is convenient for them. The link is unique, that is, the questionnaire cannot be completed more than once.

The survey polled 1,013 respondents. The distribution of study participants by sex, age and place of residence is proportional to the distribution of the population in Lithuania.

The error of the research results is 3.1%.