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V. Zemlys-Balevičius, a member of the Council of Health Experts, reviewed the spread of COVID-19 at a remote press conference on Tuesday after a meeting with President Gitanas Nausėda.
The investigator said he received information from the NVSC on Sunday about the outbreaks and types of COVID-19 cases.
“It just came to our attention then. For example, we have a fireplace: the type and description of the fireplace contradict each other,” he said.
Photo by Sigismund Gedvila / 15min / Vaidotas Zemlys-Balevičius
V.Zemlys-Balevičius stated that 50 percent. Information collected by the NVSC on COVID-19 cases is not analyzed.
“We have 50 percent. Cases that have not been fully investigated. This means that any additional analysis, which tells some kind of trend, etc., does not make much sense, because then 50 percent. Lies the underwater waters where not we know where [virusas] it’s coming, ”he taught.
It is said that slowing down is not enough
The Council of Health Experts formed under the Presidency drew conclusions on the spread of COVID-19 based on the remaining data, said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
“Eliminating that 50 percent. Of unexplored cases, family cases stand out: there are about 20%. Some of what I would say, family cases, would not be investigated, because if we say that it was infected in the family, then someone he had to bring the virus to the family.
And the rest of the cases stand out in the workplace, that workplaces are a constant source of infections and areas of higher risk, hospitals and care institutions, ”said the mathematician.
The researchers said they recommended paying attention to these places by introducing new quarantine restrictions.
“Our recommendations to strengthen the quarantine, that workplaces and high-risk areas should be taken into account, are what we can see in the data.
“.
He expressed support for the Lithuanian Education Workers’ Union proposal to switch completely to distance education.
“We have noticed that the quarantine measures are not working, it is necessary to strengthen them. Of the current vectors from which infections come, lavage bodies are one of them. Unfortunately, we may not know it, but we can suspect that there are educational institutions after the family cases and after the unexplored cases. I would support this restriction, especially when the education unions say, “commented V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
We have noticed that quarantine measures do not work, it is necessary to strengthen them.
I think we were late with the quarantine
When asked why he thought the quarantine measures were not working, the researcher said that the introduction of the second quarantine would slow the growth of COVID-19 cases, but that was not enough.
“We see that the first quarantine had a constant decline in all indicators throughout the period, from the beginning to the end of the quarantine. And with this quarantine, we see that initially there was a positive effect, a decrease and then a rebound.
The number of cases has stabilized, certainly there is a slowdown in growth, but we want to say that we have about 2 thousand. cases: the weekly average is approximately 1.9 thousand. – and the slowdown is not enough for us. Of those 2,000. 6 or 8 percent of people who get infected every day. goes to hospitals, “taught V. Zemlys-Balevičius, adding that the number of places in hospitals is limited.
Management measures for the COVID-19 epidemic, he said, should be such that the number of cases drops to at least 300 per day.
Luke April / 15min photo / Quarantine
Why is it not working and what should be applied? Of course, I, as a data expert, can say: first of all, basic hygiene is organizing the data so that we can more accurately answer where those cases come from, apply specific measures <...>. We can wave an ax when we can apply a surgeon’s scalpel ”, commented the mathematician.
He assumed that the management of COVID-19 in Lithuania was more difficult than in other countries, because we introduced the quarantine too late: “If it is too late to introduce the quarantine, we are late, there is a worse scenario.”
States that introduced the quarantine later must now, according to the scientist, take tougher measures and wait longer for them to take effect.
Judging from the data collected, V. Zemlys-Balevičius stated that he could not say whether the peak of COVID-19 cases is now registered.
“I want to thank all the people who follow the restrictions, because thanks to them we control the situation. And if we go down or up, <...> it depends on the media and the public when the public complies with the quarantine conditions. Now we have a slowdown, but we cannot tell if it is a peak from the data, “said the scientist.
Audronė Jakaitienė, a professor at Vilnius University School of Medicine, who also participated in Tuesday’s press conference, said that predictions made by scientists about the spread of COVID-19 have been confirmed.
“Trends are on the rise, but their growth has slowed. We can see this both in the number of active infections per day and in hospitalized patients. [pacientų] dynamics of numbers. The forecasts we made in the past are in line with the current development scenario, albeit with some errors, ”he said.
The researcher stated that the so-called reproductive number R in Lithuania now reaches 1.03.
“Analyzing the data from the municipalities, the situation in Lithuania is heterogeneous. About 80% of the municipalities have a score higher than 1 since the introduction of quarantine, which means that the virus is spreading in 80% of the municipalities. But the good thing is that the spread is constant percent “, – noted A.Jakaitienė.
He stressed that the quarantine measures introduced are working, but that new ones are needed.
“A little more stringent is needed, and especially in people’s gatherings, educational institutions, workplaces, health care and care institutions,” said A. Jakaitienė.
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