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“If we look at Google data on Lithuanian population mobility statistics, it shows very clearly that the second quarantine in Lithuania was effective only for the first four or five weeks. Since then, population mobility has been increasing.
Currently, the movement of the population to grocery stores has been growing very fast, which means that there is a risk that people have started to get to know each other more at home, in nature or have started visiting relatives more ”Izzorodin said to Eltai.
According to him, the growth of corporate debts with Sodra also indicates a lower business health.
“In both January and February, there was a serious enough growth in corporate debts with Sodra. This applies to both companies operating in the domestic market and companies operating in export markets. This means that companies they feel some financial pressure for this quarantine, “said the economist.
“My position is that the quarantine should be relaxed and companies should be opened because the company has been in quarantine for too long. The option would be to do mass testing of residents and employees to open a range of services, cafes, restaurants.
Yes, I agree that it is not possible to open the economy at full speed. This should be done gradually and observe the progress of the COVID-19 morbidity rates, “added Izgorodin.
According to the economist, when it comes to testing, the example of Denmark can be trusted, which, according to him, tests 8 times more actively than Lithuania.
“Denmark has a very low rate of positive tests from all tests because they do a lot of tests. Consequently, if we do a lot of testing, we will achieve two things: first, we will protect consumers from potential diseases, and second, mass testing would allow us to move to a lighter quarantine scenario.
The state must reimburse the business testing costs very heavily to be able to evaluate its employees not only from the companies that were directly affected by COVID-19, but also from the entire business, ”said A. Izgorodin.
Speaking about long-term negative changes in quarantine, A. Izgorodin said that they are available on the labor market.
“Once the normal recovery begins in Europe, it will probably be very fast, as household deposits in both Lithuania and the euro area will reach record levels. This means that when people start consuming, domestic demand automatically it will grow very strongly and it will take a large number of workers to satisfy it.
This will be a big problem for Lithuania, because now many emigrants from Ukraine, Belarus and other countries have left and it will be quite difficult for them to return, because the countries are also behind with vaccination, “said the economist.
According to him, the lack of employees means higher wages, which can lead to some companies losing competitiveness.
“I would not say that this threatens exporters, because the industry is constantly investing in increasing productivity, but the sectors that operate in the domestic market may face a great problem of labor shortage, which will not be possible to solve quickly,” Izgorodin said.
The government decided on Friday to extend the quarantine until April 30.
Currently there are shops, hairdressers and beauty salons, museums and galleries with independent entrance from the outside. The activities of cafes, restaurants and sports clubs are still limited.
