Putin, who had big plans, disappeared during the pandemic, but does not feel the existential threat.

In late April, when most of Russia was in quarantine, a telephone survey by the Levada Center showed that only 59 percent of Putin’s work was positively evaluated. Russian Putin has not seen such low ratings as president: in June 2000 and November 2013, his work was positively rated at 61 percent. Russian

53 percent. The country’s population reacted positively to Putin in September 1999, when he was still a little-known prime minister.

Laurynas Jonavičius, Professor, Political Scientist, Institute of International Relations and Political Science, Vilnius University (VU TSPMI) 15min Putin said such Putin’s ratings, however, are not too low. However, he attributes the decline in the president’s popularity primarily to leadership not demonstrated in responding to the challenge of the pandemic.

“And the lack of leadership is probably related to ignorance of how to behave and the inability, due to the peculiarities of the regime, to take all measures that can help stop the pandemic,” said L. Jonavičius.

According to the political scientist, in Russia it is common for Putin to solve problems in a few words.

“Putin has almost moved away from tackling the virus, sharing all the responsibilities with the regions, so it is normal for people’s eyes to turn to other actors.” 15min Professor VU TSPMI said.

In Russia, more than 187 thousand. infections and 1,723 deaths related to COVID-19. In the past six days, more than 10,000 cases have been recorded per day. new cases

In Moscow, which became the epicenter of a pandemic in Russia, the quarantine lasted until May 31.

Limited freedom of governors

Tatiana Stanovaya, director of the Political Agency R. Polititik, writes in a recent report that the pandemic has revealed this reality: Putin is increasingly distancing himself from the day-to-day affairs of the government and prefers to delegate many issues to others, including governors.

According to Jonavičius, in Russia, regional governors can do “more for less” if they remain loyal to Moscow, and their actions do not harm the stability of the Putin regime, for example, do not cause separatism or economic problems.

“Putin has centralized the entire system since about 2004, mainly informally, but the appointed governors must obtain the approval of the president, they can be fired at any time, the president or his administration can limit the powers of the governors as much as (Moscow ) want and when you want “. 15min said the political scientist.

According to L. Jonavičius, during the pandemic, governors gained more freedom to fight the virus.

“But I don’t know if they are very happy because probably not everyone knows how to do it either.” Perhaps someone will take advantage of freedom and take action, but that does not mean that there is a greater opportunity to make broader political decisions and, above all, on their own. From Moscow’s point of view, this is taboo.

And the Kremlin will be very strict to guarantee that more freedom in health matters does not become more freedom to increase its influence, “said the political scientist.

Stanovaya writes that while under the Putin government, Russia’s elite may appear fully consolidated, and this impression is only reinforced by an attempt to reset the presidential mandate, the reality is different.

“Competing groups fight not only for influence or ownership, but also for ideology. This poses an even more serious problem for Putin, as the views of the loudest and busiest elite segment are much more radical than his.

The fragmentation of the elite is such that there is almost no consensus on key issues. “Each player acts on his or her own corporate and political agenda, and Putin’s growing withdrawal from everyday decision-making means they have more freedom to maneuver.” T. Stanovaja writes in the last report.

“The biggest shock“

On April 22, a referendum would be held in Russia on constitutional amendments that would allow Putin to remain in the presidency. Currently, the Russian constitution does not allow the president to take office for more than two consecutive terms, which means that in 2024 Putin would have to resign.

Stanovaya writes that Putin sought to create a new political regime that was more conservative, more ideological, and more anti-western.

According to the analyst, plans to reconfigure the Russian political system have been hampered by the drop in oil prices caused by the coronavirus. A referendum was postponed to “approve” the constitutional amendments as the Kremlin tried to deal with the virus and the economic crisis.

“These two challenges are the biggest shock the Putin regime has faced and are likely to increase public discontent,” Stanovaya said in a recent report.

L. Jonavičius said that this Force Majeure The situation shows that “the system does not work very well”, but the stability of the regime will depend on the long-term consequences, on how this pandemic will affect the economy.

“The entire world is in a similar situation. Putin is not, in essence, very exceptional. The problems are similar everywhere, all leaders have to deal with them, so I really wouldn’t dare speak about the existential threat. for the regime right now. ” 15min L. Jonavičius said.

Nathan Hodge, head of The Wall Street Journal’s Moscow office, also sees no existential threat to the Putin regime. He writes to CNN that “the Russian president is satisfied with the positive coverage on state television, which shows him as a competent and cold-minded leader in responding to the crisis.”

In an interview with the Ukrainian news agency UNIAN, Russian political scientist Natalia Shavchukova said that Putin had “lost” Moscow, Saint Petersburg and several other major cities. And the opposition is said to be penetrating the outermost regions.

Ms. Shavchukova said that the powers of the police, the National Guard and the security services were already expanding in Russia.

“It just came to our attention then.” The experience they gained with QR codes during the outbreak in Moscow, the Moscow region and other areas will, of course, benefit them, “the political scientist told UNIAN.