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The Government Council of Experts proposes not to release the quarantine restrictions for the time being, Ramunė Kalėdienė, the head of the Council of Experts’ quarantine group, told BNS on Wednesday.
“We follow the strategy that we can still ease the restrictions by easing them as soon as we go from worst case to least bad. We should wait for that scenario to take hold, ”LSMU professor R. Kalėdienė told BNS.
“The Council, after a great, very intense debate, taking into account the experience of other countries, (…) these days we still have not made any proposal for the release of anything next week. “We suggest waiting for the lower limit of scenario C,” he said.
Earlier, ministers announced plans at a government meeting on Wednesday to consider allowing beauty centers and non-supermarket stores to operate with a separate entrance from the outside.
According to R. Kalėdienė, according to experts, these exemptions could only be applied at the lower limit of scenario “C”: 150 cases per 100 thousand. population in 14 days.
Currently, this indicator in Lithuania reaches 414.9 cases.
“Every week we promised to review, to review what can be done,” said R. Kalėdienė.
Neither the Government nor the Ministry of Health have yet responded to BNS on what quarantine proposals will be made and how the experts’ suggestions will be taken into account.
It is suggested to wait and be careful.
The Minister of Health, Arūnas Dulkys, announced this Saturday that Lithuania, depending on the situation of the coronavirus in the country, has already gone from scenario D to scenario C, which means that it is now possible to gradually relax the quarantine measures. On Monday, Vaidotas Zemlys-Balevičius, a data scientist and member of the Independent Expert Advisory Council formed by Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė, called for a cautious release from quarantine in the Delfi rytas program.
He recalled that the quarantine scenario C is still strict enough.
“Let’s remember that Scenario C still has enough restrictions, some kind of (liberation, aut. P.) And total freedom is not even foreseen in this scenario.
We shouldn’t expect to be able to live like summer. But scenario C and the general trajectory of managing a pandemic are on the side of improvement. Hopefully we can release it a bit later. But it has to be done carefully enough, ”said the data analyst.
Last week, the morbidity figures increased a few days. This is due to further research. V. Zemlys – Balevičius stated that increasing the scope of testing would increase morbidity indicators.
“It is worth mentioning that the scope of the tests has decreased. Last week there were two days in which the number of days went out of the trend. This was due to the increase of tests in the main cities. What happened there is a good question.
It just shows that if you test more, you can detect more of those cases. Which means that the current figures on the basis of which we enter Scenario C are more indicative. If we upload the tests, it is very possible that they will jump, “said V. Zemlys-Balevičius on the” Delfi rytas “program on Monday.
The data scientist recalled, however, that the proportion of positive studies has now leveled off, but dropped from 20% during peak hours to 10% in recent days. And in some municipalities, that number has dropped below 4 percent.
“It just came to our attention then. Whatever the numbers are, they are,” the expert said.
V. Zemlys – Balevičius stated in the program “Delfi rytas” that the municipalities of the country that show extremely good morbidity rates do not follow a “magic recipe”.
“If all the institutions of the municipality work and cooperate without problems, the epidemic is managed: they monitor cases, put out chimneys, take security measures, then those good results are successful.” The strict restrictions we have allow us to reduce the number of infections overall. And then you have to catch the sick. In those municipalities, the number of these positive cases is not so high and the epidemic can be controlled ”, he said.
According to the interlocutor of the show, it is easier to manage the situation in small municipalities, but it will also be possible to do so in larger municipalities. He said this required more resources to track cases.
The Jurbarkas district municipality, which probably has the lowest morbidity rate in the entire country, announced on Friday that it will ask the government for quarantine in its municipality.
According to V. Zemlis-Balevičius, such a decision may create additional risks.
“It is necessary to understand that in Lithuania municipalities are closely related to economic activities. That is, if we vacate a municipality and, for example, hairdressers can start operating there, one can expect haircuts from other municipalities there. Then it will bring that virus back and the situation there will get worse, “he predicted.
“In three weeks, everyone can be released. So why bother with a municipality now? (…) There is both for and against such a consideration. This is where the government must decide. I think it can be done to take one or two municipalities and see what happens there. But you need to understand the risks, “said the data scientist.
“Maybe we’d better drop the numbers all over Lithuania?” He suggested.
V. Zemlys-Balevičius also recalled another important factor: hospital employment. Although morbidity rates in the country are falling, it is the hospital employment rate that is still not very good.
“It just came to our knowledge then. (…) The signs are such that the number of cases decreases, we are going to scenario C, but we must think very well about the launches. And those releases that will take place must be very controlled, the situation it is closely watched to see if we don’t do it too soon, ”said data scientist V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
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