Professor Usonis on the second predicted wave of the virus: today we can already tell where we made a mistake



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“Today, we can say very clearly that it is not true that COVID-19 cannot spread in hot air. As we see, it is spreading in Greece, Spain and with us”, says V. Usonis in the program “Delfi diena” .

“We rejoiced a little too early in the early summer, when the number of new diseases dropped dramatically, when we all started talking about the first wave receding, but it really wasn’t. Epidemiologists clarify that so far 7 months have passed since the pandemic began and that is the initial wave of the pandemic. It means that we can meet an infected person anywhere and infect ourselves, ”he says.

The professor reiterates that it is still necessary to consider whether it is necessary to attend events or even more so fly, especially for people who are at risk.

Are adolescents most at risk?

Ahead of concerns about the children returning to school in September, the teacher says it is causing a lot of debate around the world, but the researchers’ data remains conflicting.

“It just came to our attention then. Children in preschools are said to be relatively safe to meet the requirements that now exist. Children under the age of 10 are said to be relatively safe and rarely transmit the virus to their families The greatest risk, adolescents from the age of 10, can often infect themselves and are active spreaders of the infection, “says V. Usonis, but emphasizes that these data have not yet been conclusively proven.

Prof.  skilled.  Dr. Vytautas Usonis

Prof. skilled. Dr. Vytautas Usonis

© DELFI / Domantas Pipas

According to him, nothing is yet known about the seasonality of the coronavirus, how the virus behaves in autumn, winter, spring and summer, but, says the doctor, we must be prepared for such a scenario that the number of diseases increases in autumn.

“Nowhere in the world has it been a year since the virus appeared. It will be December in China and March in Lithuania. So far, we apply a lot of experience with other viruses. Americans have been looking at the seasonality of another coronavirus infection. for 8 years and have shown very clearly that seasonality is present: morbidity increases in late autumn-late November-December, peak in February and gradually decreases until April-May, and summer decreases. We do not yet know if the coronavirus It will behave in the same way, but we must be prepared for it, ”explains V. Usonis.

Do not advise rushing the investigation.

If you discover that you have had contact with a patient, the teacher does not recommend taking the test immediately, as its results can be misleading.

“In the respiratory tract, the coronavirus appears about two days before the onset of symptoms. They start from the fifth to the sixth day, with a maximum incubation period (when the virus is already in the body but not in respiratory secretions): 14 days. If we knew that a person would get sick on the fifth or sixth day, it would make sense to do that test on the third day. If a person falls ill on the tenth day, the test on the third day will be negative and misleading. “

Therefore, according to V. Usonis, it is an appropriate recommendation that people who have been in contact with infected people be isolated and examined only at the first symptoms of the disease.

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