Professor: The end of any pandemic generally depends on several factors.

The first is how much we know about the virus itself. The more we know, the sooner we can get rid of it. This knowledge is essential for the development of effective and safe vaccines. Because the new SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is very similar to the previously studied SARS and MERS coronaviruses, it helped speed up the vaccine development process.

The second important factor is the ability of the industry to produce large quantities of vaccines. Vaccine development is only the first step toward the end of a pandemic. Vaccines should be mass produced, distributed worldwide, and grafted. All people should be vaccinated at the same time. How to do it? The logistics required to produce a vaccine may take longer than vaccine development and research. The sooner we can do this, the sooner we will get rid of the pandemic. One of the vaccines currently under study is the Oxford vaccine, which has reached Phase 2 and Phase 3 studies in humans. The team investigating him believes that the vaccine could be ready in September this year. Perhaps this is a hasty conclusion because vaccine development is a complex science. Vaccines can be disappointing in the final stage, all the work done will be wasted and everything will have to start again. Optimism is provided by the fact that more than 160 companies are developing vaccines. If some are disappointed, others can be effective. Some experts believe that the first coronavirus vaccines could be developed in 2020. in December. It will take another six months to see if the vaccine is effective. If vaccines are effective, increased logistics, including mass production, would likely take another 3-6 months. This means that the vaccines are likely to be ready for distribution in 2021. in between.

The third factor is the properties of viruses. Viruses can mutate and their aggression can decrease or increase. If viruses mutate and become more aggressive, all of the vaccine development work will be wasted. As a result, the pandemic will be very long. If viruses mutate in the opposite direction and become less aggressive, COVID-19 disease will be milder, less deadly, and this will help end the pandemic with fewer deaths. As far as is known, coronaviruses mutate slowly, the most important parts of the viral genome do not mutate, which means that the aggressiveness of the virus does not increase. Therefore, scientists believe that one vaccine may be enough to end a pandemic.

The fourth factor in ending the pandemic more quickly is people’s desire to maintain physical and social distance. When countries open, millions of people do not keep a physical distance and many people become infected. As the number of patients increases, the capacity of the health care system may not be sufficient, so the pandemic will be overcome later, since the main resources and energy will be dedicated only to the treatment of new patients. These resources could be used to develop vaccines, their mass production, and, of course, other health problems. Therefore, the greatest possible care should be taken to maintain physical social distance until an effective and safe vaccine is available to everyone.
The fifth factor is the desire to wear a face mask. Wearing a mask can prevent a large increase in the number of infections and the allocation of resources to treat new patients (often at the expense of other patients). It does not require much effort. Recent research suggests that masks can stop the spread of viruses in society. Viruses can become infected by chatting. Aerosols containing viruses can stay in the air for up to 14 minutes, so if everyone starts wearing a mask, the spread of viruses will decrease. This means fewer patients and, consequently, more funds for vaccine development, mass production and distribution. As a result, the pandemic would end sooner.

There are many models to end a pandemic, and their reliability depends on the integrity of the information used, so most of them have not worked. Amid the pandemic, the number of new cases of COVID-19 reached 70-80,000 per day, and with the facilitation of quarantine, this number increased to more than 150,000. during the day. In other words, the number of new cases has increased significantly, with numbers exceeding all prognostic models, so these models should not be relied upon to predict when a pandemic will end. One thing is clear, if the curve for new cases were to jump again and a second, larger wave were to begin, healthcare systems in almost every nation would have a hard time dealing with new cases and it would all go back to square one in the fight against coronaviruses. . In other words, a new quarantine? What would be its socio-economic consequences?

The last factor in ending the pandemic faster is research. Three factors are important here: 1. how many infected people identify and isolate themselves; 2. how many contact persons are identified and quarantined; 3. how fast everything is done. By successfully testing and searching for contacts, we can ease (or waive) restrictions and revive the economy faster. We need to examine all people who experience symptoms and those who have been in contact, even if they do not experience symptoms of the disease. Positives should not exceed 3%. Test results. We need to identify as many infected and exposed individuals as possible in order to isolate or quarantine them. If we do all of this really fast (in about a day), that can only be enough to control the epidemic: the epidemic is controlled if 60% can be isolated. patients as soon as they experience symptoms and trace at least half of their contacts as soon as possible before they become infected. Both quantity and speed are required.

The pandemic will end vaccines. When will it be? Only God knows. The course of the pandemic will depend on compliance with physical measures of social distance and research in the coming months. It is the contribution of all of us to a faster response to the pandemic. SARS-CoV-2 is likely to continue to circulate in the human population and to synchronize in a seasonal pattern with decreased disease severity. We may have to live in a viral neighborhood for the rest of our lives.