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Professor Mindaugas Stankūnas, a member of the Council of Health Experts, stated that preliminary calculations have been made and three scenarios have been prepared, indicating how the course of the pandemic in Lithuania may change.
The professor emphasized that these scenarios could come true in the near future, but this will not necessarily happen. M. Stankūnas divided the scenarios presented to President Gitan Nausėda into optimistic, average, and pessimistic.
Optimistic scenario: decrease in cases
According to him, according to the optimistic scenario, a small increase in cases can be observed in the near future, similar to that already observed.
“We could expect between 500 and 600 cases per day,” he said, adding that in this scenario, the number of coronavirus cases in Lithuania would start to decline as early as mid-April.
“We don’t really expect a decrease like in January, February. In our opinion, this scenario is very desirable, but unlikely,” said M. Stankūnas, clarifying that the optimistic scenario would be likely if additional quarantine measures were introduced, which will work. ” .
Average scenario: up to a thousand. cases per day
According to the professor, the average scenario would mean an increase in the number of cases in Lithuania, which may exceed a thousand in mid-April. limit of cases per day.
“Although it seems like an increase, we think it would be a very good option, considering all the circumstances and the situation in other countries, etc.”, explained the professor.
Pessimistic scenario: the third wave of the virus
According to the pessimistic scenario, the third wave of the pandemic would appear in Lithuania in April. “It just came to our attention then. Preliminary calculations show that the number of new cases can reach 3,000 cases per day. This scenario is likely if the British strain becomes dominant and turns out to be much more contagious than the British strain. coronavirus currently prevalent in Lithuania, ”said M. Stankūnas, adding that the increasing mobility of the population will also contribute to the deterioration of the situation.
The professor assured that this scenario could be avoided. “Now the race against time begins. It is very important that most of the population is vaccinated as soon as possible. This is the main weapon at the moment ”, explained the professor.
New cases of the disease will not decrease until May
When asked whether local quarantines should be expected in the country, M. Stankūnas said that experts have prepared epidemiological forecasts only until May, because “the situation is volatile and may deviate in another direction.”
However, even in the “optimistic” scenario, the number of cases is not expected to decrease until May, therefore, according to the LSMU professor, the number of cases is likely to increase in May as well. When asked about the possibility of introducing local quarantines in those municipalities where the most dangerous strains of the virus have become widespread, M. Stankūnas said that he could not rule out that possibility, but assured that any solution should be carefully considered.
“Having learned from our end of autumn, beginning of winter, I think that we should not repeat the mistake and seeing those signs, we should take this information with care, all the options to handle that situation should be discussed, because to think that what is happening Now in Poland or Estonia before it will not occur to us that we are protected, to think that we have already suffered in December, in January, would be a big mistake. I think we should consider all the options, “explained M. Stankūnas.
