Professor Laiškonis on the third wave of coronavirus: Quarantine may need to be tightened rather than relaxed

We spoke with Alvydas Laiškonis, professor and infectologist, about the impending third wave, the African strain of coronavirus, and other news.

The African variety may also become dominant in Lithuania.

Quarantine measures are being strengthened in several countries of the European Union, since in most of them the number of new infections begins to grow again. According to the professor, due to the deterioration of the situation in Lithuania, it is not yet possible to introduce new mitigations; It is still necessary to wait and see how the situation in Lithuania and throughout Europe will continue to develop.

And if the number of new cases continues to grow, according to the interlocutor, we will have to think about hardening the quarantine.

It seems that not long ago, as soon as the news about the new British variety spread, specialists said that in Lithuania in the near future this variety may become dominant. At the time, it was still hard to believe that this could actually happen. However, now in Vilnius this variety is beginning to dominate. Can the same happen with the African variety?

“It just came to our knowledge then. The first cases in Lithuania have already been identified, but they were found randomly from specially taken samples. However, if we take a few hundred samples, we will find more of this variety. Of course, someone brought it to Lithuania, it couldn’t have appeared otherwise. The number of South African varieties in Lithuania will definitely increase. Now we need to take more samples, do more sequencing and then we will find more cases of the variety, “said Prof. A. Laiškonis.

However, even if the African strain vaccine doesn’t work, the vaccine is worth it. Because when it becomes infected, the course of the disease will be much easier.

“The vaccine protects against serious forms of the disease. It will not protect against a possible infection, but the disease will not be serious, mortality will be lower, which requires vaccination, “said the interlocutor.

Open schools and next Easter can become the Achilles heel

When the quarantine lasts much longer than expected, it becomes extremely difficult or even impossible for various companies to survive. The latter are pressuring the government to adopt quarantine measures as soon as possible to make them work. However, according to the professor, it is not yet possible to succumb to such pressure, because the new launches would be one more blow to the epidemiological situation.

One factor that could make the situation worse is next Easter.

“People still move and shop during Easter, so the business needs releases. However, there may be a recurrence of the late-Christmas situation where people go to their heads to buy something, even if it’s not a necessity. When you open stores, the virus can start to spread even faster.

It should be noted that we have now opened schools through which the virus can also begin to spread, as children often suffer from asymptomatic diseases. This can be dangerous. An experiment was done with a school, everything was fine, but allowing most of Lithuania to go to school, in my head, was reckless, too early. The children were happy, the parents were happy, but what will happen in 12-15 days? ”, Considered prof. A. Laiškonis.

Although we spoke a few weeks ago that Easter may not be remote and that it will be possible to get liberations from the movement, now that the situation is getting worse, it is no longer worth waiting.

Unfortunately, movement restrictions cannot prevent the spread of the coronavirus, because people are still figuring out how to avoid them. Therefore, everything, as the professor said, depends on the conscience of the people themselves.

“The police will not be able to control everyone who is going somewhere; people felt freer in quarantine and began to move. Still, they find a variety of paths in the open air they can pass. They will not support the police at all. The restriction of movement is highly conditional and depends more on the conscience of the people. We live a difficult Christmas, we also live Easter. You can also have fun through social networks, you do not have to drive, “urged the infectious disease doctor to refrain from movement.

The third wave will be, the only question is when and how big.

According to the interlocutor, the third wave of the Lithuanian coronavirus will not be overlooked.

“We are not isolated from Europe. It is impossible to do an absolute quarantine, the movement continues, people travel and move. It is reported now that airlines are increasing the number of flights. We will not avoid the third wave. We have to think about the fact. that it will be with us, the only question is what size and when it will arrive ”, said the professor.

And again, the vaccine can save the uncontrolled spread of the new strain. Unfortunately, it will not be available that quickly, as it will take at least a few months for it to change with the new coronavirus before any tests and trials are done.

Teacher. According to A. Laiškonis, the foreign press already writes that some pharmaceutical companies are beginning to work with the modification of the vaccine to expand the range of vaccines.

By the way, according to the interlocutor, many countries of the European Union are currently facing the problem of slowing down the rate of vaccination. Needless to say, this increases the risk of infectivity and higher mortality.

AstraZeneca also does not contribute to faster vaccination rates, as the company does not meet the delivery schedule to the European Union.

“The Americans are beginning to question the data provided on whether they are too old. They asked AstraZeneca to resend their documents. Also, you should not react with total indifference to cases of thrombosis, it is necessary to continue collecting the material”, said the infectious doctor.