Prepared for nuclear war, and then a pandemic ensued: the consequences could be felt worldwide

05/03/2020 World



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In February of this year, when the world had not yet crossed the threshold of a coronavirus pandemic, an exercise simulating a nuclear conflict was conducted at the US strategic headquarters. USA At Ofut Air Force Base in Nebraska.

This in itself was not an exceptional case: such simulations are developed by all nuclear states, including the United States, but are rarely made public. The scenarios for such exercises are even less publicized. But this time, the Pentagon revealed a lot: the exercise involved the United States Secretary of Defense, Mark Esper, one of the most important people in the chain who makes decisions about the use of nuclear weapons.

During the crisis modeled on the exercise scenario, Russia first attacked and used a tactical nuclear weapon against a US base in Europe, a NATO state. The Americans responded with a “limited nuclear energy weapon”, presumably from the Trident intercontinental missile launched from a submarine with the W76-2 low-powered nuclear warhead, which the US Navy. USA Has been using since the beginning of this year. The US Army USA And the Pentagon leader continued to be satisfied: the decision-making chain worked, the weapons also worked as planned, a successful response had been given, and the public message was supposed to be a deterrent to Russia. But things took an unexpected turn.

Infection in nuclear facilities.

Within months of the exercise, the first coronavirus case was recorded at Ofuto Air Force Base, where key decisions about nuclear warfare would be made. Ofut was not the only US base associated with nuclear weapons, all but one reported cases of coronavirus.

Urgent measures have been taken, including censorship: according to the Pentagon, the US Navy. USA And military bases no longer report the exact number of infections. Public information about the actual number of patients in a strategic facility, be it a nuclear weapons base or a warship, could threaten the country’s national interests.

However, given the crippling effects a virus outbreak can have in an isolated area, there is no doubt that it has been the most serious threat to date since the Cold War. And not only the United States, all the states with nuclear weapons.

Until then, countries that have suffered from epidemics more than once face a real problem for the first time in modern times, where an invisible adversary can undermine nuclear capabilities.

Proponents of nuclear disarmament say the coronavirus pandemic has shaken decades of unwavering claims that nuclear weapons have helped maintain global stability and avoid a major clash between major countries. However, nuclear weapons advocates are trying to give the impression that there are no pandemics and that the arms race is only gaining momentum.

He began to show muscles more frequently.

These declarations are backed by the actions of the most important nuclear states in the world, in the first place the United States, Russia, China, France and the United Kingdom. For example, in recent weeks, after acknowledging that the coronavirus was detected in all bases where nuclear weapons are stored, the Pentagon has repeatedly commented on what the public does not usually mention: preparing for nuclear war.

“The US nuclear forces are not adversely affected by a pandemic and are ready for a deterrence mission,” said Admiral Charles Richard, commander of the US Strategic Command. , Reiterating in early April that the general of the US Air Force. USA Timothy M. Ray said that EE. USA He was ready to use nuclear weapons at any time. during a counterattack.

The United States can launch intercontinental missiles from land mines, submarines, or use cruise missiles and bombs from planes. Mines have the least protected objects on land, making only a small part of the US nuclear arsenal. USA (400 missiles with 800 heads) is stored in the mines.

The submarines are the most difficult to detect: The United States has 14 Ohio-class submarines, each ready to launch dozens of intercontinental nuclear missiles. However, as the USS Theodore Roosevelt example shows, only one case of the virus on board could end tragically, with the first coronavirus cases confirmed in March and the uncontrolled spread of the infection, the US plane was essentially decommissioned, more than 600 crew became infected. and the captain who warned of the danger was dismissed.

And if the aircraft carrier is a symbol of the power of the United States, it is submarines and aviation that are the true military powers of the United States that can provide nuclear deterrence and, if necessary, the use of such weapons.

As a result, the United States has recently adopted similar tactics with aircraft capable of carrying nuclear weapons. For example, in mid-April, the United States conducted an exercise in the Pacific Ocean to simulate the massive takeoff of B-52 bombers from the island of Guam.

They took off and did not return, thus disrupting the ongoing deterrence mission of these giants and dozens of nuclear missile planes in Guam.

However, the United States soon staged another spectacular spectacle instead: A B-1B bomber from the continental United States flew near Russia-controlled Kamchatka. The original purpose of this bomber was to use nuclear weapons, but the low-flying B-1B had not carried out such a mission for some time. This has led to rumors that the United States has resumed the nuclear mission of these bombers under a new order: US forces must be less predictable and deploy rapidly as circumstances change.

On the other hand, such a demonstration of power during a coronavirus pandemic is also seen as an attempt by the United States to show other countries, especially China and Russia, that the United States is not only a nuclear power, but that, despite of the myriad of infections in the United States, use your deadliest weapons.

Can no longer tolerate even small things

It is easier for Americans to be less predictable than, say, the United Kingdom or France, which have only four submarines with intercontinental nuclear and ballistic weapons.

This means that two ships must be ashore at the same time, repaired or preventively maintained, and the other two must be at sea. And that leaves no room for error or even truth in terms of ship crews.

For example, two French submarines left the ports before Paris was quarantined on March 17, and the ship’s crews were not even aware of the radical change in their country and the world. The longest mission at sea was also caused by coronavirus cases on a French aircraft carrier.

At that time, the Royal Navy nuclear powered submarines followed similar procedures and were reminded that misdemeanors that would be overlooked before a pandemic would not be tolerated. This is illustrated by the example of the HMS Trenchant submarine: After a difficult training period of several months, the returning sailors held a party at the base.

And while the captain, who had organized a party of impressive music, steaks and revelry, claimed that it all happened on the deck of the submarine and on a well-insulated dock: the sailors followed the quarantine rules, the fleet administration took it more seriously and fired the captain.

“They simply have no margin for error. If at least one crew member were infected with the coronavirus, the captain would have no choice but to return to port or risk the lives of all crew members: the submarine is a neck of bottle, the virus could spread very quickly, “said Sebastian Brixey, director of the British-American Security Information Council. Williams

And if one ship were forced to return to port, the entire United Kingdom, which once had the world’s most powerful fleet, would have a single ship to become the final pillar of nuclear deterrence should the need arise. It is easier to hunt one ship than two, in which case London would really lose its nuclear capability.

Russia is aware of this risk and had to quarantine the entire crew of the Oriol nuclear submarine in late March. The Russian fleet has 10 submarines that carry the country’s strategic arsenal: intercontinental nuclear missiles.

Prepared for nuclear war, and then a pandemic ensued: the consequences could be felt worldwide

© Twitter photo

However, with the rapid spread of the coronavirus in Russia in recent weeks, it is questionable whether Russian submarines are capable of carrying out their tasks. Accompanied by tragic incidents and disasters, the Russian submarine may not be at sea all the time, but it is not safe in Russian quarantined ports: the infection has not even peaked in the country, and more than 1.2 billion have have been officially confirmed only in the Russian armed forces. infection cases

The virus revealed serious gaps.

However, such dangers are negligible compared to the damage that would be caused by the use of a nuclear weapon itself. For many years, this was only a theory: Without the use of two nuclear bombs in 1945, the modern world could only rely on military and scientific research and deliberation on what the use of nuclear weapons would mean in the world.

However, the coronavirus pandemic revealed unexpected deficiencies. The UK, for example, was directly faced with a decision-making dilemma after coronavir put the country’s prime minister, Boris Johnson, on a bed of illness in late March.

It is he who is responsible for deciding whether a country should use nuclear weapons. The decision has now been entrusted to his undersecretary of state, Dominic Raab, a default administrator during the crisis, although such information had to be kept secret.

At that time, the information that was not a secret: how many intensive care beds, how many artificial lung ventilators and other critical equipment in hospitals in each country, turned out to be much more important during the real crisis. But that is a small consolation when it turns out that many countries that faced a pandemic scenario for the first time in real time, instead of exercising, have a large number of infected people, tension and stress in the doctors. However, the lack of equipment during such a pandemic is only a minor drawback compared to the use of nuclear weapons.

Prepared for nuclear war, and then a pandemic ensued: the consequences could be felt worldwide

© DELFI / Kiril Tchaikovsky

At least that’s what scientist Tom Sauer, who teaches at the University of Antwerp, and Ramesh Thakur, director of the Center for Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Disarmament at Australian National University, are two of the world’s leading scientists to reduce nuclear weapons threat.

“No country had enough beds in intensive care units to control patient flows during this coronavirus. The pandemic also shows the power of the nuclear weapon. The almost universal response to the panic created by COVID-19 allows us to calculate the number of beds required. For example, in the case of nuclear war. Is the number of beds sufficient? No, far from that, “the researchers point out.

And while they acknowledge that the likelihood of such conflict is slim, even the occasional use of nuclear weapons or a limited exchange of tactical attacks, exactly as the United States simulated during the February exercise, would be catastrophic for any country’s health system. After all, it is one thing to show exercise skills and abilities, it is quite another to see a real situation.

The example of the coronavirus pandemic shows that even the most powerful country in the world is unable to cope with a crisis of hundreds of thousands of patients at once: nuclear weapons, even low power in one fell swoop, cannot only kill millions but create even more injuries. . And this would mean that a particularly large number of intensive care units would be needed at the same time.

And that would be in developed countries. And what would happen in countries with less rich, modern and well-equipped health systems?

For example, India and Pakistan, which almost once were on the brink of nuclear war and both have nuclear weapons. Scientists estimate that Pakistan’s most powerful nuclear weapon – 45 kilotons or several times more powerful than a bomb detonated over Hiroshima – would kill 358,000. population and would injure an additional 1.28 million if it detonated over Delhi.

And this is the lowest number implied, as there are about 4 million people living near the epicenter. People: Some of them are unlikely to survive without the help they need. But even in developed countries, such as Belgium, the number of intensive care units and beds in them is now critically small, around a few thousand.

“No society is ready for such a catastrophe and cannot be prepared,” the researchers emphasized.

Prepared for nuclear war, and then a pandemic ensued: the consequences could be felt worldwide

© Zuma Press / Scanpix

“Nuclear cataclysm is almost inevitable in the long run, because to maintain peace, deterrence and safeguard mechanisms must always work, and a single mistake is enough for a catastrophe.” The leaders and decision-makers of nuclear states do not always feel safe with their rational actions, ”the authors note, noting that 2020 has become a year of new nuclear competition.

The United States and Russia are developing their medium-range nuclear capabilities, and Moscow has already made clear that Trident missiles deployed in the United States with low-powered nuclear warheads do not impress Russia. And there is no difference: a nuclear weapon, even a tactic, remains a nuclear weapon.

“Every year the probability of such a conflict increases.” If the President of the United States, Donald Trump, does not renew START, a treaty with Russia on strategic nuclear weapons, by the end of this year, for the first time in 50 years, the world it will not have a bilateral agreement that guarantees verification procedures, “the researchers warned. It would not only mean a new arms race in which the Pentagon is already planning to spend around $ 50 billion. dollars for the maintenance and modernization of weapons nuclear, but also fewer resources to combat a pandemic that has proven to be a much more dangerous adversary than other nuclear-weapon states.

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