Predicted wave size growth: should increase for another 4 weeks

The president on Friday with members and guests of the Council of Health Experts, geriatricians, sociologists.

“Together, we discuss two main topics. The first topic is undoubtedly the day of the third age that is celebrated today. As the president has been told, this target group is of special importance and has made a number of proposals to increase your well-being.

Today, the epidemiological situation and the level of vaccination of this group of society is of vital importance, and it continues to be a great challenge for the entire country, so the issue of the elderly was the main one ”, said Irena Segalovičienė, Senior Advisor to the President. .

According to the counselor, the meeting pointed out that there are enormous inequalities in information for older people, and that it is necessary to increase the quality and effectiveness of information and develop a system of access and individual counseling to address all fears, myths, problems of health and effectiveness of vaccines. .

“The second very important group of proposals is related to management issues. In Lithuania, experts see the need to strengthen management decisions and coordination at the state level.

Undoubtedly, there is great inequality and room for improvement: methodological solutions for the problems of vaccination of the elderly prepared at the state level, sets of tools that could be used by municipal specialists and, therefore, guarantee a good information and a good consultation mechanism, ”said I. Segalovičienė.

According to the Chief Advisor, experts are also proposing decisions to make free rapid antibody tests available to our seniors, thereby helping them determine their level of immunity and advising on their immunity, and assisting in making decisions about vaccines.

The second topic that did not receive less attention was the evaluation of the effect of the vaccinated population.

“It is believed that vaccines have already saved many people. It can be assumed that the number of people is equal to the size of the city of Pagėgiai: 900 to 1500 people. This is a very important message, and the importance of vaccines in such an epidemiological situation it is growing, ”said I. Segalovičienė.

Presidency: the situation in Lithuania is very bad

Examining the epidemiological situation, the President’s senior adviser regretted that the situation in Lithuania was very bad.

“It just came to us then. In Lithuania, these figures are very high. Every day a double-digit number of people die.

The second important parameter is our vaccination rate. They become ultra slow. We do not vaccinate the first dose with up to two thousand people a day. Meanwhile, today we have 73% of people vaccinated with the first dose.

The third parameter indicating indications of great concern is 65+ m. the level of human vaccination to date. It should be higher, especially compared to other EU countries. Or 80 m. Vaccines for people 12 years and older are significantly too low: only 65% ​​in our country, while in advanced countries we even see results equivalent to 100%. vaccinated elderly, ”said I. Segalovičienė.

The president’s senior adviser pointed to data released by the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, showing that although all countries deal with the delta strain uniformly, Lithuania is among the leaders in terms of COVID-19 and the second in terms of deaths.

The presidency did not spare the criticism of the Minister of Health Arūnas Dulkis.

“The Government is responsible for the result and it is the Minister who coordinates the health field. The results speak for themselves. The results are poor, especially compared to other countries. There are really many systemic and administrative gaps that cost us death, ”said I. Segalovičienė.

Predicted wave size growth: should increase for another 4 weeks

Rector of the Vytautas Magnus University (VMU) prof. Juozas Augutis said that during the meeting the situations of last year and this year without vaccination and with vaccination were compared.

“Although we are not satisfied with those rates, this situation is also significantly better than it would be without the vaccines,” said the professor.

He said there were around 500 sick hospital workers at the height of the pandemic last year.

“Today when we get to the same number of cases, we have 80 doctors and nurses who cannot be at work,” Augutis said.
Therefore, according to him, it can be said that without vaccination today we should approach 4 thousand. new cases of coronavirus.

“If we had not had vaccines, about 60 thousand. “This year alone, the base is August and September, we should have more cases,” said the rector of the Vytautas Magnus University.

It also found that the vaccine saved about 2,000. lives in the country. And although it is difficult to predict a pandemic, as J. Augutis pointed out, according to him, looking at the previous waves, it can be estimated that the rising wave should continue for about 4 weeks.

“Somewhere at the end of October it should reach its sharp peak and, as in previous waves, a decline would follow. The height of the wave will also depend on the protection measures that are put in place, but it can be said with some certainty that we will not reach the average weekly average as last year, (…) although we will see significantly higher or lower individual cases ”, said the professor.

The use of masks in the interior at this time is justified.

Augutis said wearing the masks indoors during this period is justified.

“However, at such a high level of cases, I think it is justified and those three or four weeks should be tolerated,” he said.

According to the professor, there is a clear correlation between unvaccinated older adults and mortality in the group of older adults. Another reason, he said, is the general poor health of the population.

“Maybe it is not that there are gaps, but we should catch up and greatly strengthen communication, going home with those groups. Recommendations are listed, they will be provided. I would not call it a mistake, but we can see what the situation is like. and we have to make some decisions as we get out of it, ”J. Augutis said of the government’s efforts to manage the pandemic.