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A. Kubilius wrote on Facebook that the current government is doing quite well in managing and fighting those major crises or challenges that have befallen Lithuania this year.
As the MEP points out, no government has been able to hold two consecutive terms since the 1990s. Until 2008, no government could last the entire 4-year term. Since 2008, this political tradition has changed, with three consecutive governments not working for a full four-year period, but not winning the next election.
“Paradoxically, it is worth noting today: despite all the protests, riots and demands to lead the government with the entire Seimas, the time has come for a new European tradition in Lithuania: a well-functioning government has every opportunity to rule. the country for two consecutive terms, winning regular parliamentary elections. And the most important thing is that this Government of Ingrida Šimonytė has every opportunity to start creating such a tradition in Lithuania, “wrote A. Kubilius.
Dry will not come out
The political scientist of the Mykolas Romeris University (MRU), Rima Urbonaitė, affirmed that in the statement of A. Kubilius she sees more conversations about the desired scenario, than about the probable one, because the real assumptions complicate the situation.
“It would be strange if a politician representing one or another political force, who is currently in the ruling majority, did not try to inject the idea that there may be no end, that they are ready to execute another term,” R. Urbonaitė judged.
“On the other hand, it cannot be ignored that the general ratings of the Government and the Cabinet are not very good, that this Government will associate people with crises, both migrant and COVID-19,” he added.
In addition, the political scientist points out that people have started to talk more about the price increase, which is always accepted negatively.
“We really cannot say that the current situation creates many preconditions for the government to dry up and remain the ruling majority after the 2024 elections. On the other hand, the crises are not over yet, we cannot assess the last stage of crisis management “, he emphasized.
What groups will fall?
Ainė Ramonaitė, a political scientist at the VU Institute of International Relations and Political Sciences, said she saw preconditions for how support for I. Šimonytė’s government could decline, but the political scientist does not see where support could increase.
“The conservative electorate is made up of several different groups, one of which is the Christian electorate, although the current party government is more liberal. The Christian flank is clearly dissatisfied with the coalition itself and the initiatives that arise from it: the Istanbul Convention, association issues, so that part may fall only because the Union of Activity now immediately associates with the Party of the Freedom ”, said A. Ramonaitė.
Another part of the conservative voters is a business group that expects more favorable conditions for business, according to A. Ramonaitė, it is also disappointed.
“It can be seen that there is a lot of discontent in this group due to various restrictions, problems caused by the passport of opportunities, unjustified expectations for crisis management. And in general, due to the lack of various promised reforms, playing with crises, “said the political scientist.
A. Ramonaitė considered that at least these two groups of voters will participate in the next elections.
“The most loyal voters remain, who remain silent only because they understand that criticism of the government can be favorable to Russia. But it is also a question of how long that silence and that patience will last, ”said the political scientist.
At that time, the younger electorate, according to A. Ramonaitė, was divided between the Freedom Party and the TS-LKD.
“Such an assessment of A. Kubilius seems to me too optimistic and perhaps even utopian,” said the political scientist.
A. Ramonaitė does not rule out that the Conservative then leads the historical void, and the distrust of the Conservatives characteristic of a part of society only deepens the problems of this Government.
Ratings should improve
Vladas Gaidys, director of the Vilmorus Market Research and Public Opinion Center, said the government’s cabinet of ministers Algirdas Butkevičius had a similar negative rating in 2016.
“The rating of Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė has now dropped significantly. A. Kubilius was lower in 2009-2011,” he noted.
However, V. Gaidys emphasizes that the ratings of many politicians and many institutions have recently declined.
“There are very few politicians left with a positive balance,” said the sociologist.
V. Gaidys said he saw no reason for a further deterioration in the government’s ratings; according to him, they were more likely to “correct” as Vilmorus’ previous poll was conducted at a very unfavorable time for the government.
According to the sociologist, distrust towards governments is typical of other countries of the European Union, with the exception of the Scandinavian countries.
You must find a consensus
At that time, Lauras Bielinis, a professor at Vytautas Magnus University (VMU), when evaluating the relationship of the conservatives with the media, considered that the party lacked a unified speech strategy.
“It just came to our knowledge then scattered. There is no clear, unified strategy for talking, and this leads to a kind of misunderstanding, an inability to understand what they ultimately want to achieve. They should work hard to speak to the media, “said L. Bielinis.
Furthermore, as the political scientist emphasizes, the rulers must find an opportunity to speak with President Gitan Nauseda.
“There are many connections, interfaces, where the decision must be made mutually, first of all foreign policy, but also domestic policy. Governors must be able to communicate with the president.
And the president is apparently angry too. If you are not angry, at least keep in mind that there are no fanatics in the ranks of the rulers. Without speaking, they only deepen the chain of misunderstandings that occur during decision-making and implementation, ”said L. Bielinis.
