Political scientist: this is the biggest challenge Lukashenko has faced so far

Alexander Lukashenko did not expect to meet such a large and diverse group of opposition candidates. Not to mention, those candidates were not expected to receive such public support. And when it seemed that all the main rivals – Tichanovsky, Babarika, Cepkalas – had already been slaughtered, planted, and taken out of the ring, an unexpected rival entered the fray. Svetlana Tichanovskaya is a woman who could cost the President of Belarus a serious nervous disorder.

“In all this context, Tikhanyovskaya’s candidacy seems unexpectedly strong. This is because the government did not appreciate her, looked at her from above. This was also seen in Lukashenko’s rhetoric when he spoke of female candidates. On the fact that the constitution must establish that only after performing military service can he run for president. He acted as always chaotic, ugly and offensive, “Vytis Jurkonis, a political scientist and professor at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science at the University of Vilnius.

It is clear that Tichanovskaya was expected to be intimidated by the imprisonment of her husband and the threat of deprivation of custody of the children. However, the Lukashenko regime underestimated not only his character, but also his simple Belarusian state of mind. “I think Tikhanyovskaya was underrated enough, and when it came to character traits, thinking that it would be possible to click the children’s line, that pressure was really,” Jurkonis said.

Unexpected “snowball”

He was seconded by Andžejus Pukštas, Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at Vytautas Magnus University. “He probably didn’t consider it a threat because the man was jailed and he still thought he would be a niche candidate, not a competitor. At the same time, he wanted to show that there are supposedly competitors, to maintain such an image of democratic elections that supposedly has some rivals. He probably thought his main rival was Babarika, well, and maybe Tikhanyovsky. And they were pre-incarcerated. And he thought that others would be such candidates. “I really didn’t expect that wave to go up,” said the interlocutor.

And the wave went up. Tihanovskaya was attended by the wives of other arrested candidates, and opposition demonstrations drew crowds of tens of thousands every day. “In my opinion, a snowball effect is happening here, that wave of support for Tikhanyovskaya has been growing every day until now, although there is more voice of protest against Lukashenko. Nobody knew much about Tikhanyovkaya and it is not very unique” said A. Pukštas.

Ms. Tichanovskaya is also a unique candidate in the sense that the winner promises to resign and hold new free elections in which the people of Belarus can freely express their will. “Its great plus is that it appears that it only comes to change the regime, that after a time, half a year promises to call new elections, in reality it would be like a candidate-leader of change,” said the interlocutor.

The latter had been bothering Mr. Lukashenko for several weeks. But no less annoying are ordinary Belarusians, already engrossed in the farce of democracy. The country is awaiting elections without independent international observers, on the eve of which Ilya Shapotkovsky, the organizer of the public initiative to monitor the integrity of the elections, has been arrested, the main opponents have been jailed and the chiefs of staff Rivals are constantly terrorized by security officials. However, such an enthusiastic pursuit of rivals could take Lukashenko to the other extreme: anger the common people and unite the hitherto fragmented sides of the Belarusian opposition.

“There is no doubt that in the face of threats there is more focus. But compared to 2006, when there was a united opposition candidate, that unity is of an entirely different nature. Then everything was taken very seriously, there was an opposition convention and everything else. Especially from Tichanovskaya herself, she doesn’t want power, and I think that’s impressive. It basically comes with a message without a great ideological platform or specific partisan support, but more than a candidate for different people. The program is not complicated enough and I think some people are quite impressed with it, “said V. Jurkonis.

An outdated plate is no longer convincing

Flagrant violations of democracy are not the only thing that has angered the people of Belarus. “But also the rhetoric that attracted 15 years ago, and says practically nothing new. That rhetoric is repeated in the late 1990s. Not only is he repetitive, he already seems tired, tired and nervous himself. And especially that of his speech in the great hall, which was seen by the entire political and economic elite that was shown on television, is not attractive either. Tired, tired and old-fashioned, it is definitely not where it was 10-15 years ago, ”said A. Pukštas.

Of course, when we talk about Belarus, popularity or votes alone will not be enough. Minsk has enough administrative resources to count the votes that Lukashenko will need. “Well, maybe she would be a serious opponent if there were real elections in Belarus. But it must be said that elections, as we understand them, do not exist. What is also seen during the election campaign. And the main candidates are sitting, and staff members and independent media are under attack. And we can already see in those few days of early voting that the percentage is quite significant and high, which is a clear sign that the government is relying on its already developed methods. and it is falsifying the elections. In this context, it is incredible to really defeat when the government has all the administrative resources. There is an impossible mission, “said V. Jurkonis.

While it would be naive to expect the opposition to win the election, it remains the biggest challenge Lukashenko faced, experts say. “Comparing what it was in 2006, 2010, 2015, this challenge for S. Tichanovskaya seems probably the most serious of all the previous candidates for several reasons. Firstly, that the opposition had joined in and that was quite unexpected since the The government tried to avoid that unity. It took various tactics to divide and govern and announced the elections a little earlier than planned. It was scheduled for August 30. Another thing compared to other elections: the influence of social media, especially the telegrams, youtubers, bloggers, it’s much older. And the government doesn’t control that at all. They understand how to control and restrict independent media, they know how to overcome that usual opposition, and here is a much broader front, much more diverse people and not only in Minsk but also in the regions. Not only those ridiculous opposition ghettos, but also business people, cultural people, some even civil servants, “said V. Jurkonis.

Desperate maneuvers and a real threat of violence

Part of this desperation in Minsk is also evident in last week’s maneuver, during which mercenaries from the Vagner paramilitary group detained near Minsk were reported. It is hard to imagine that the Kremlin, which had invested so much money, resources, and political capital to maintain the Lukashenko regime, would suddenly have the intention of causing unrest and overthrowing power in Minsk. “I saw versions from al. From being so unlikely and almost unreal that a team will be dispatched to keep Lukashenko safe if things go very bad, to being more likely or more explained as an opportunity to divert attention from the crackdown and so-called electoral performance. From all this information, investigative journalism articles, it still appears that it was a coordinated action that the Belarusian government knew in advance about the presence of these fighters and then raises many questions about the supposedly propagated role and image of a neutral state, a pacifier. The way this has been done does not seem like much of a surprise to the Belarusian government. And that they were preparing and planning very consciously, “said the political scientist.

Are Vagner’s mercenary adventures in Belarus part of a coordinated conspiracy to discredit the opposition? A real attempt to overthrow power in a union country? Spoiled “tourist” vacation in another cathedral? “It just came to our attention then. We can only guess. But the fact that you promise to extradite some of those Wagnerians to Zelensky proves that those” Wagners “were sent. But then again, whether they were sent exclusively to Belarus, Russia he may have planned something there, “said A. Pukštas.

Lukashenko’s waning patience is perfectly illustrated by empty promises to double the salaries of all Belarusians in five years, with outrageous statements about the country’s defeated coronavirus or winged phrases about unrest awaiting from Minsk to Vladivostok. “It just came to our attention then. It can also be found in representatives of North Korea. I am, and if I am not, it will be bad, there will be a global catastrophe. This depravity is not something special, just a self-demonstration, a demonstration. of my special role that I am irreplaceable. If it is not me, if not the whole world, at least half the world will collapse. “Both Hugo Chávez and Erdogan say that he is a guarantor of stability in the region and in the world.” said the expert.

“It’s like showing a message to the observers, to those involved, who advocate for international standards, who is the host here. I control the situation and only I can tell you how to proceed. And if you think otherwise, it will be some kind of retaliation, added V. Jurkonis, “How many of those retaliatory actions will there be?” Well, we’ve seen the same thing about the same Wagner fighters in detention. It seems so twisted that, roughly, if they are guilty of nothing here, we will release them. How can Wagner’s fighters be freed in a supposedly sovereign state? And if we are guilty, we will speak with dignity to our neighbors. What does “dignity” mean? “When Wagner’s army is in Belarus and receives softer rhetoric than teddy bears thrown from a Swedish plane, questions arise about the gravity of the situation.”

Hunger for change, dissatisfaction with corruption, impunity, pandemics, and a shrinking economy in society can be seen from afar. Mr. Lukashenko has repeatedly made a clear and unequivocal threat that he will not tolerate any Maidan in his country and is willing to use force. The situation is reminiscent of a powder keg and, sadly, an outbreak of violence seems inevitable.

“It is important here when people achieve these results. If, after all, those choices are not really clear, or there is a suspicion that the forgery took place, or that the forgery took place on a large scale, those crowds are likely to leave not only Minsk, but all of the other places. In that case, you may be scared. I agree with Linkevičius, who said that Monday is not so important, but Monday. How voters will still agree with the election results. In fact, it is extremely important, “said A. Pukštas.

V. Jurkonis also agreed with him: “Anger also erupted during periods of less competitiveness. The rating and support for the president of the Belarusian public is low enough, I will not speculate on the percentage, but it is obviously unusually low. And tens of thousands of people came out to protest in both the sixth and tenth years. In the fifteenth year, the election took place even without serious competition, for the numbers we see now, for that scope and geographic spectrum: from young people working in the IT sector to dissatisfied retirees in the regions, it is likely that there are protests. The crucial and most important question will be what wave of repression the Belarusian authorities will face in those protests. From what we saw in June-July, that first wave of repression was greater than in the tenth year. We understand that we are talking about dozens of political prisoners, hundreds detained, sanctioned, and that number has already exceeded one thousand, who in one way or another suffered at the hands of the authorities during this electoral campaign ”.

There may be temptations to introduce military preparation.

According to experts, Lukashenko gradually dispersed the support of officials and the administration. Even in the Belarusian economic sector, it is becoming clear that it is necessary to change course, although there is disagreement on how to do it. “I would dare to call attention to such a silent protester: the official and the representatives of the industry. Representatives of that Belarusian economy, who also understand that I will not go very far after antiquity. It is also likely to be a mature wave of change and a ruling class affair. And perhaps the Babarika who is now in prison was a representative of those economic strata. And on the one hand, Belarus, it is not Russia, there are no oligarchs. “Everything is in the hands of the state, but even among those state officials, you economists are probably realizing that they probably need to change,” said A. Pukštas, saying the president may even be tempted to go into a military situation if the situation changes. difficult to control.

“Probably now their main point of support are the structures of force, security, police, army. And perhaps here you may be tempted to enter some military post. That temptation can certainly arise for him, because he sees those last comments from him that his nerves can no longer bear. That that emotional load is already heavy enough for him too. Maybe sometimes it is too difficult ”, said the interlocutor.

We’ll see how things play out tonight.