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Russian President Vladimir Putin greeted the guest as the legitimate president of Belarus with a warm smile, as if pretending that the five-week protests over the rigged results of the presidential elections were simply “a matter of domestic politics.”
At least for the moment, this means that the Russian president is publicly endorsing the person who sparked the wave of protests, a man who currently presents himself very fiercely as the most faithful friend Moscow can have.
Therefore, Putin extended 1.5 billion to Belarus. dollars, which should, among other things, help Mr. Lukashenko pay salaries to security structures to help him retain his presidency.
Additionally, Putin confirmed that Russia will honor its commitments to its neighbor, including promising to help if the situation in Belarus deteriorates.
“Lukashenko is trying to intimidate his opponents by showing them that if they continue to protest and things turn aggressive again, they will have to deal not only with him but also with his uncle Vladimir,” explains Minsk-based political analyst Artyri Shraibman.
This statement was also emphasized by a week-long joint military exercise in western Belarus, which began on the same day that the presidents met in Sochi. Putin then announced that such common affairs “will be almost every month,” which is further proof that he will not allow the “power of the people” to overthrow Lukashenko.
Behind the scenes, there are many who believe that Russia’s support for the President of Belarus for a long time is quite conditional, as the Kremlin believes that Lukashenko, a leader who is no longer trusted, has been fatally violated by the protests and already he cannot keep more serious promises.
“I suspect they are well aware that the damage done to Lukashenko is irreparable, and even if he remains in power for some time, his time is running out.” We should think about managing the transition process, think about how to replace the president who he has lost confidence in Putin, “says Andrei Kortunov, a specialist at the Russian Council on International Relations.
Russia’s support price is also expected to hit a series of very lucrative privatization deals in Belarus or, for example, the promise to finally make long-delayed economic integration plans.
Only after Lukashenko’s drastic political distractions before the elections, perhaps the scandal over the arrest of 32 Russian recruited soldiers, did Moscow’s patience deservely run out.
“Now is not the time to put a gun to Lukashenko’s head and get rid of it before the New Year. He is dominated by emotions right now, he just won’t listen.” I think Putin will mention the transition period, “says A Shraibman.
Perhaps Moscow hopes the protesters will eventually panic or tire. The Kremlin sees the protests as bad weather, Shraibman said, saying it is only necessary to wait and the storm will end. During that time, Moscow, as soon as it finds a mutually acceptable alternative, will oust its former ally.
“I don’t think the Kremlin is left behind and waiting for Lukashenko to leave forever. He needs guidance. Such an uncertain situation will not be able to continue for long,” warns Andrei Kortunov.
Political scientist: Lukashenko humiliated even at Sochi airports
Russian political scientist S. Belkovskis is convinced that Lukashenko was humiliated as soon as he landed in Russia, at Sochi airport.
“Even the subtleties of the protocol, the reception aspects of Lukashenko speak for themselves. Not to mention that the meeting did not take place in Moscow or the Kremlin, but inside the Aliaksandras Grigorjevičius mansions did not really shine.” Kondratyev, the governor of Krasnodar, received him on the stairs, although according to protocol, at least the foreign minister had to wait for him, because he was the president of a foreign country, “a Russian political scientist told Radio Svoboda.
Yelena Rykovceva, who moderated the conversation, noted that everyone who met Lukashenko wore protective masks.
“I can give you 100 percent. To ensure that those people do not wear those masks when interacting with each other in real life. I recently visited Sochi, I lived near that pension” Sochi “where there are many Mišustinas of all kinds, it is higher level than the group that knew him, “he said.
“The highest ranking person was the governor of the Krasnodar region, which is already described as a diplomatic humiliation, and even quite demonstrative,” Belkovsky noted.
According to him, there was nothing new in the dialogue between Lukashenko and Putin. Putin, according to the expert, does not trust Lukashenko, so no sentimental attempt to convince him of his humility will really help, especially since there were none.
“Already Alexander Lukashenko tried to justify why he should be rescued, despite the fact that NATO forces would enter the territory of Belarus and Russia would suffer as a result. Vladimir Putin is well aware of the cost of all such persuasions,” Belkovsky said.
According to Belkovsky, Putin doesn’t believe a single word from Lukashenko, so it doesn’t matter what he’s talking about.
He questioned the mental state of Mr. Lukashenko because of the accusations made.
“He claims that the Polish army has entered the Grodno region, that world politics is controlled by Telegram,” Belkowski said.
The political scientist says Lukashenko was very afraid to leave Belarus on Monday (it was his first visit abroad after the rigged elections on August 9), and the brutal persecutions of protesters on Sunday wanted to show that he was still in control.
“The Belarusian Interior Ministry said 3,000 people took part in Sunday’s rallies, but according to independent estimates, there were between 100 and 150,000 protesters. When Lukashenko flew in from Belarus, he was accompanied by fighter jets. He is afraid he would not have where to go back. So the question arises as to what the government’s transit scenario is, not what it will say, “says Belkovskis.
Do you have more than expected?
When Lukashenko flew from Minsk to Sochi in his presidential Boeing on Monday morning, he of course expected Putin’s support, but did not even think he could have imagined such support, the BBC’s Russian service reported.
Putin said Russia would provide Belarus with 1.5 billion. Loan in USD. The technical aspects of granting the loan are left to the finance ministers of both countries.
Belarusian political scientist Valery Karbalevich recalls that this money is used to restructure the previous debt: “Belarus is in debt to Russia and Minsk is receiving a loan again to pay off old debts. This is a common practice used in all previous years: Belarus has received 1.5 billion euros a year. Loans in US dollars, most of which were used to restructure debt. During the last year and a half, Russia stopped lending and halted economic subsidies altogether, as Belarus refused to increase integration with Russia. But now protests in the streets of Minsk have forced Moscow to resume subsidizing its ally. Mr. Lukashenko desperately needs this money. “
“It just came to our attention then. An unexpectedly generous gift, as Lukashenko himself was only expecting a billion dollars. This is Putin’s generous act: in addition to the verbal support of the Belarusian government, the Russian leader has decided to support him materially. But it is also a trump card for Lukashenko, who can now tell officials in his power structures: “Moscow supports us firmly, Moscow has given us money, which means we will not survive, we will survive this difficult period,” said the Belarusian political scientist Aliaksandr Klaskovsky.
It is true that it is not clear what Lukashenko could have promised in exchange for the loan, says the expert, because the issue was probably discussed during the closed part of the meeting. Although many experts have pointed to Putin’s decision, not all agree that the loan will significantly strengthen Lukashenko’s position in Belarus in the face of a serious internal political crisis.
“The same game between Putin and Lukashenko continues, which has been going on for 20 years. With constant conflicts and reconciliations. The money is from Moscow, military and political cooperation from Belarus,” says expert Yuri Chausov.
J. Chausov recalls that next year the leases of two military objects in Belarus will expire (the radio unit of the warning system on missile attacks in Hancavičy and the radio station “Vileika”, the zonal communication point of the Russian Navy). The conditions for the further use of these facilities by Russian soldiers began to be discussed before the elections.
“This is a rather sensitive issue in bilateral relations: 25 years ago, Boris Yeltsin and Lukashenko agreed that Belarus would cancel a considerable amount of debt at that time in exchange for a free lease of such facilities for a period of 25 years.” I am inclined to believe that the lease was exactly the proposal that Lukashenko made to Putin in response to the question of what Russia will receive in exchange for economic and political support, “said Chausov.
Klaskovsky believes that in exchange for his support, Lukashenko could have promised to take some measure to increase integration with Russia, but if the issue were really discussed, Lukashenko would hardly announce it in public: many of Lukashenko’s opponents such an act would be backed by the it renounces sovereignty, which means that the protests could escalate if this fact is clarified.
According to V. Karbalevičius, Lukashenko could actually promise to increase integration: “But Lukashenko’s promises are worthless. I think Putin understands this perfectly. “
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