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Conservatives vs. “Peasants”: a tough battle for Kaunas
15 minutes the political scientist explained that in the second round of the Seimas elections, the election of the residents of Kaunas will be really significant, especially for the TS-LKD. He noted that LVŽS representatives, including Health Minister Aurelijus Veryga (19%), who lagged far behind conservative Gintarė Skaistė (33%) in Panemunė district in the first round, turned out to be weak.
Eriko Ovcharenko / 15min nootr./Bernaras Ivanovas
However, although this time the advantage on the right side, in his opinion, one should not think that the residents of Kaunas have returned to the embrace of the conservatives. It is worth remembering that the number of Kaunas residents who voted for this party in 2016 and now does not differ drastically. For example, four years ago, the president of the TS-LKD, Gabriel Landsbergis, had the support of 38%. voters – they also voted for him this time.
15-minute montage / Gabrielius Landsbergis and Ramūnas Karbauskis
Support for the Conservatives increased most clearly in Šilainiai, where Ramūnas Karbauskis (39 percent) and the then-Conservative, who had spoken out four years ago, were replaced by Rimantas Jonas Dagis (19 percent) and Jurgita Šiugdin (19 percent). ), who had already failed in the elections. The “peasant” Ligita Valalytė (16%) and the LVŽS candidate Aušra Papirtienė (17%), who appeared in these elections in the electoral district of Kalniečiai, were surpassed by the conservative Arvydas Anušauskas (31%). Interestingly, in 2016. The results were the opposite: in the first round, A. Papirtienė received 20 percent and Andrius Kupčinskas, who represents TS-LKD, received 17 percent. votes.
According to political scientist B. Ivanovas, Kaunas is really important, but it will be possible to properly evaluate it only after the final results are obtained. 15 minutes When asked if the conservative J. Šiugždinienė, who did not receive the support of the population in the mayoral elections, has a chance to enter the Seimas, he said that it is difficult to predict. However, one thing is clear: this choice may come as a surprise.
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V. Matijošaitis will not save the “peasants” either.
Will Visvaldas Matijošaitis, the smiling mayor who smiles at Saulius Skvernelis at the advertising stands, help Kaunas residents decide which: conservatives or “peasants” to support in two weeks? B.Ivanovas noted that voters do not connect “United Kaunas” and LVŽS, so the support expressed by the mayor is irrelevant. According to him, the success or failure of Karbauskis does not depend on V. Matijošaitis.
Why doesn’t Kaunas blindly believe that the mayor listens to his call to vote for the LVŽS? As Ivanov explained, unlike in Western Europe, voters are not strongly tied to political parties or movements. This is typical not only of Kaunas or Lithuania, but of the entire post-Soviet regional space. “The voter lives his life and the politicians theirs,” he added.
You may have felt that you may need to interact with other political forces after the elections …
He also pointed out that the support of V. Matijošaitis itself is not and was not intense even during the presidential elections, when the LVŽS presidential candidate, Prime Minister, S.Svvernelis, and the mayor met in Kaunas and visited Vytautas Magnus University. .
“The impression was as if it was not of goodwill,” said B. Ivanov, and was surprised that even the publicity for “peasants” before the Seimas elections in Kaunas was small: It seems that Kaunas has stayed away from the green peasants in these elections. You may have felt that you might need to interact with other political forces after the elections … “
Photo by Žygimantas Gedvila / 15min / Ramūnas Karbauskis and Aurelijus Veryga
Conservatives got part of the protest votes
The political scientist B. Ivanov is convinced that the LVŽS has been heavily trampled on, and the best example of this is the poor performance of the Minister of Health in the Panemunė district.
“I thought,” Ivanov recalled, “that Mr. Veryga’s visibility will continue to determine and it will be easier for him in the elections, but I was wrong.” It turns out that the anti-rating works very well. “
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According to him, if there are no big surprises before the elections, the Conservatives should win. Although the leader of the “peasants” R. Karbauskis, who spoke with journalists on Tuesday, considered that the main competitor of the party in the elections to the Seimas had already reached its ceiling, 15 minutes the political scientist interviewed explained that this time the TS-LKD had transferred them. According to him, the conservatives have collected not only the votes of their electors, but also the protest votes of those affected by the referred “peasant” anti-rating. Thus, in the first round of the Seimas elections, the conservatives also supported those who had not voted for them before.
“The big problem for the conservatives was that they did not know how to work with their constituents, but now that group has expanded due to the mistakes made by the ‘campesinos’ themselves,” he said.
God forbid, now to be in the place of Karbauskis, a sad story is drawn.
According to B. Ivanov, although at first it seemed that the pandemic would respond positively to the LVŽS in the Seimas elections, the opposite happened.
“God forbid, now to be in the place of Karbauskis, a sad story is drawn. Now it can be desired, as it should in a democracy, consolidate and work constructively in the opposition. Gather the positives, positives, and strive to represent the social agenda. Of course, I would not consider them a left party. The history of the Social Democrats was a failure, and those beavers stepped on …
Rokas Lukoševičius / 15min photo / TS-LKD press conference pending the results of the elections to the Seimas
It does not seem that we see the welfare state on the political agenda, so we would like the opposition to consolidate the conservatives, who propose the same motto: save German money (not even us, but borrowed), forgetting many times that we are not in the crisis of 2008. in the euro area and those savings are no longer so important. The agenda, I think, will be the same as in the time of Kubilius, therefore, the situation will require that the opposition speak about social issues, “said the political scientist, who now took the place of the president of LVŽS R. Karbauskis.
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B. Ivanov noted that the neutral position chosen by the TS-LKD so far has paid off and should work in the second round of the Seimas elections. In the words of the interlocutor, the conservatives now resemble an elephant in a china shop: they are afraid to cross because they can break the accumulated as soon as they move.
Generally speaking, if the party now began to launch statements to join the coalition with one or another political force, it would deter the electorate. Think of the skeptics on the beach in Lukiškės square who are preparing to support the TS-LKD when they hear about the future coalition with the Freedom Party or vice versa: the right-wing electorate may not be happy with the “friendship” with the Social Democrats or the left self-employed “workers”.
Conservatives and “peasants” duel in Kaunas
Šilainiai County: the conservative Jurgita Šiugždinienė (31%) and the “peasant” Ligita Valalytė (16%).
Mountaineering County: the conservative Arvydas Anušauskas (31%) and the “peasant” Aušra Papirtienė (17%).
Petrašiūnai-Gričiupis District: the conservative Kazys Starkevičius (33%) and the “peasant” Gediminas Vasiliauskas (16%).
Panemunė County: the conservative Gintarė Skaistė (33%) and the “peasant” Aurelijus Veryga (19%).
Aleksotas-Vilijampolė County: the conservative Vytautas Juozapaitis (28%) and the “peasant” Karolina Žekaitė (14%).
Center-Žaliakalnis County: the conservative Gabrielius Landsbergis (38%) and the “peasant” candidate Audronė Jankuvienė (13%).
Only in the county volunteers in the second round will meet The conservative Paulius Lukševičius (23%) and the representative of the Freedom Party, Marius Matijošaitis (15%).
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