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Lithuania is going through a great crisis, which requires not only the mobilization of society, but also decisive government decisions. Political scientist Margarita Šešelgytė is convinced of this and emphasizes that the fight against illegal immigrants from Belarus is significantly delayed not only with border protection, but also with clear communication, reports LNK.
“Hybrid warfare tactics are interesting because they are based on the surprise effect. A surprise situation is created, chaos is created and in that chaos you try to achieve your goals. What we are seeing today is that there is information that flights from Iraq will be suspended for a couple of weeks. Perhaps, on the one hand, this is due to diplomatic efforts, but on the other hand, there is a reflection that the flights will continue, and it will be difficult to cross the border here and those people will meet in Minsk and that will be a challenge. It is probably not possible to calm down, because other actions can be expected, ”said M. Šešelgytė.
According to the political scientist, there are several objectives for which A. Lukashenko is attacking Lithuania: “Some objectives are more related to Lithuania, others are broader, with the European Union. Lithuania is a really uncomfortable state for the Lukashenko regime, because after last year’s demonstrations he became one of the biggest lawyers for the Belarusian opposition in Europe and the world and constantly accepted the issue, criticized Lukashenko, lobbied the European Union to impose severe sanctions, especially after the illegal landing in Minsk. Of course, it is possible to see some revenge against Lithuania, but it should also be considered more broadly. The use of migrants, arming them and turning them into weapons for political purposes is not a new phenomenon, it has been taking place for several decades, ”said the political scientist.
As he said, there is likely to be a conflict between Belarusian and Lithuanian officials: “It is very difficult to predict such scenarios, because they are based on the surprise factor, provocations that may occur may not occur. I am very confident in the willingness of our officials, I think they have studied those scenarios and are ready. But we also saw that such provocations would occur when it was announced that a migrant who had returned from Lithuania had died on the territory of Belarus. This information was widely covered in the official Belarusian media, and there were very clear threats from A. Lukashenko directed at Lithuania. Such provocations are very likely, especially if this reversal policy is effective and fewer immigrants will be able to enter Lithuania. The Lukashenko regime will have to take other measures that are more effective to exert pressure. “
Our ability to respond to such challenges is quite limited, because on one side is Belarus, and on the side of Belarus is Russia, which essentially controls Mr. Lukashenko’s decisions.
Former Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaitė shared a six-point agenda on how to act in an emergency. M. Šešelgytė stated that all the points of the program are justified: “Everyone needs attention. Perhaps we should start with the first point on border protection, because without this gap, we would not have had that problem today. You may wonder why that wall has not been protected for so many years, but today very decisive steps must be taken first to create a physical barrier. However, we are a small country and we are at the epicenter of such an important game. Our ability to respond to such challenges is quite limited, because on one side is Belarus, and on the side of Belarus is Russia, which essentially controls Mr. Lukashenko’s decisions; he cannot decide for himself. And there are countries like Iraq, and we don’t have as much knowledge about the country, about the processes that are happening in the country, who makes the key decisions, or the cultural context, and we also have very few opportunities to press. In order to speak and negotiate with these countries, it is very important for us to have the support of the European Union, NATO, our partner countries, which could help us reach an agreement. “
“There is support, there is a Frontex mission with all the equipment that we do not have. Even more important is the know-how that we do not have in the fight against illegal immigration. There is also talk of even stronger measures to strengthen the border. It seems to me that after the Commissioner’s visit it became very clear that, however, here there is no simple migration, but organized and directed migration, and this must be answered accordingly, ”said M. Šešelgytė.
We arrived a little late with a very clear and unified communication from our Government.
“It just came to our knowledge then. We also have a pandemic, which we have not yet come out of, and we also have a migration crisis, which is also new in Lithuania, and the new is very scary, because we do not know who will be here now and how to deal with it. In addition, there are the next Zapad exercises, which are also a considerable concern for Lithuanians all the time. Such a situation is a crisis, a big crisis. Concentration is very important in times of crisis, but also It seems to me that we are a bit late with a very clear and united communication from our Government. We have heard many different communications that should not be public. It should be united, especially in such an important case. A crisis is a crisis and bureaucratic rules are important, the rules of the game are important, but in a crisis decisive and quick solutions are needed. I hope we learn, “he said.
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