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The president of the opposition Senate, Tomasz Grodzki, warned last week that a veto on the EU budget could lead to the country’s withdrawal from the Community.
“If Poland loses huge sums of money for further development and recovery because of him [po koronaviruso pandemijos]”And we will leave our European homes, history and the people will not forgive them,” he told the rulers.
Zosia Wanat and Jan Cienski in Politico point to three reasons why Poland can withdraw from the EU and three reasons why it will not.
ZUMAPRESS.com/Tomaszas Grodzkis
1. Conflicting values
When ruling Law and Justice (PiS) politicians explain why they are vetoing the budget, they rarely use the terms “money” or “funds.” Instead, they speak of ideology, sovereignty, and civilization. And this shows that the conflict between Brussels and Warsaw is not about politics, but about values.
PiS politicians are trying to paint the EU as an ultra-left project, driven by confused ideologies, or a front for Germany to take control of the bloc.
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Regardless of what the rule is (rule of law, goals to stop climate change, abortion or the rights of the LGBT + community), many PiS politicians see this as an attempt by the EU to impose “western” or “liberal values. “to Christian Poland, Wanat and Cienski wrote.
“It just came to our attention then. And those who want to take away our sovereignty on the basis of their wishes will have problems,” he said in a recent interview. de facto President of the country, President of PiS Jaroslaw Kaczynski.
2. Growing criticism
Prime Minister Mateusz Morawieckis recently compared the EU to a “communist regime” in parliament, criticizing the “arbitrary decisions” of the “Eurocrats” and the “European oligarchy,” writes Politico.
Education Minister Przemyslaw Czarnek said on Friday when Poland was criticized in the European Parliament for tightening the abortion regime: “We have reached a worse level in Europe than the Soviet Union and communism.”
Photo by Sigismund Gedvila / 15min / Matthew Morawieckis
At the same time, senior officials say they are not supporters of Polexit.
“YES to the European Union, NO to unattractive and unclear mechanisms,” Morawieckis wrote on Facebook on November 23.
For its part, the opposition warns that even if PiS does not seek to withdraw from the EU, Polexit could become the result of the current government’s actions.
3. Not necessarily the interest of J. Kaczynskis
The decision about Poland’s future in the EU will probably be made by J. Kaczynski, my authors. In his vision of rebuilding Poland, the role of the Community is not central. Kaczynski seeks to divert the country from the reforms that began with the collapse of communism in 1989. He calls this period rampant corruption and domestic compromise.
For this Kaczynski project to succeed, PiS must strengthen control of the courts, the media and other institutions, and bring together staff loyal to itself and the elite. The government has already said that it does not intend to deviate from reforms of the legal system, which have caused strains in relations with Brussels, writes Politico.
However, authors Z.Wanat and J. Cienskis point out the reasons why Poland will not leave the EU.
1. Poles strongly support the EU
Unlike their government, the Poles are one of the most pro-EU nations. In the 2003 membership referendum, 74% voted in favor. The voters, over time, the Poles became increasingly pro-European.
Poles have benefited greatly from the single market and EU funds, the authors say. Since 2004, the Poles have received 127 billion euros from the EU. more than any other member. This money was used to build roads and bridges, schools and stadiums. Since 2004, more than two million Poles have benefited from free movement to work and study abroad.
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When the Polish rulers vetoed the EU budget, Polish sentiment did not change. A poll conducted by IBRiS / Rzeczpospolita at the end of November showed that 81% vote in favor of joining the EU in the event of a referendum. 73 percent. respondents supported the idea of linking funding to respect for the rule of law.
2. A blow to the economy
The Brexit negotiations have shown how difficult it is to delink the economy of a single market member from the EU. For Poland, such a secession would not only be more difficult than for the United Kingdom (UK), but also, perhaps, catastrophic, according to Zanat and J. Cienski.
Polish companies mainly export and import into the EU common market. In 2018, almost 80 percent. 58% of exports went to the EU. imports came from the EU internal market. The country’s prosperous economy has attracted significant foreign investment.
EU funds and membership of the single market contributed to the enrichment of the Poles. Per capita income in 2004 was 45 percent. According to Eurostat data, the EU average is already 70% in 2017.
The UK is the sixth largest economy in the world, Poland 22 and much more dependent on the rest of the EU. According to the authors, should the Community withdraw, the resulting tariffs and trade barriers would lead to a recession in the economy.
3. For one: difficult
Poland is currently going through the safest and richest period in the last four centuries. In addition, relations with NATO and the EU removed it from the Kremlin’s sphere of influence.
During Donald Trump’s leadership, PiS pursued common goals with Washington. However, President-elect Joe Biden has no contempt for the EU, which is a problem for the UK and would be an even bigger problem for Poland outside the Commonwealth, Wanat and Cienski wrote.
READ ALSO: Will the ideological differences between Mr. Biden and the Polish rulers lead to a crisis in relations between the two countries?
Polish authorities often stress the importance of regional alliances such as the Visegrad Group or the Three Seas Initiative. But all the other countries in the alliances are members of the EU, so it’s hard to imagine them prioritizing relations with Warsaw over Brussels.
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