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As the mayor wrote in the social account, although the differences are not counted in the thousands this time, it would be very significant if the division of epidemiological zones were considered.
Here is the mayor’s public record:
„I await the last post on this topic !!!
-50 thousand – “insignificant number”
Therefore, I propose to analyze the IMPORTANT ones.
The number of patients diagnosed in the last 14 days.
This time it is not thousands, but only units. Still, units that are crucial to government decisions.
According to the system recommended to us by Robertas Petraitis, the head of the NVSC, who has already been dismissed today, we currently have 23 identified cases of COVID-19 in the district of Širvintos as of January 29. until February 12. (Photo no 1)
NVSC also uses the Juvare system.
Taking into account the depersonalized information that the municipal specialist who works with this program provides me, I compare it with that provided by the official statistics map. (Photo no 2)
And … Relatively does not come out. Because it proves it in 14 days. there are 40 cases.
The difference is small, not a thousand, but important because with 40 cases in 14 days we are in the C3 red zone, and with 23, as much as we see in the Juvare system, we would be in the C2 zone.
Okay, an equal sign between 23 and 40 won’t help.
Yesterday, the Minister of Health and representatives of the Department of Statistics informed the public that the statistical systems were finally updated and more precise data were provided according to the updated methodology.
It has been repeatedly emphasized that the total number of patients is not that important. So why IMPORTANT 14 d. in number systems, the extremes do not yet converge
I very much hope that even these inaccuracies related to the data that assess the real epidemiological situation and that according to NVSC Director Robertas Petraitis and Minister Arūnas Dulkis are really reliable, will finally be clarified.“Wrote the mayor of the Širvintos district.
Changes in statistics
The news portal tv3.lt recalls that after the chaos due to the number of patients that do not correspond in part with the statistics and the reality of the municipalities, the Minister of Health Arūnas Dulkys presented changes due to the publication of statistics related to the COVID-19 disease. indicators. At the same time, it ensured that the morbidity rate was not used or used to assess the quarantine release scenarios.
“I have heard a saying like this: in good times no one needs data, and in bad times no one wants to open it,” the minister joked as he began to present the news.
He recalled that he had emphasized from the beginning that data was crucial for decision-making and monitoring the success of plans.
“Admittedly, it has not been easy to analyze existing statistical methodologies, but it is really important not only to have the data, but also to ensure that it is of high quality, because accurate data creates our future,” said A. Dulkys.
It welcomed the opening today of even more precise calculations, based on the recommendations of the World Health Organization and good practices from other countries.
“I think we are on the right track and that is not the end. So the statistical report is changing as of today, it will allow all of us to better understand the incidence of COVID-19, related deaths, testing and progress of vaccination. And these aspects are valuable to assess the current situation and the management of the pandemic, “said the minister.
As an example, the Minister highlighted the problem of excessive deaths, which can now be measured with new indicators.
Quarantine is decided according to two criteria
“For my part, I would like to highlight three things. One of the hot topics today is the number of patients. Unfortunately, the total number reported in eHealth has never been exact. Thus, from now on, the Department of Statistics will always provide a statistical calculation of this indicator in addition to the number of people declared. I would like to point out that this indicator is not and has not been used by the Government in making decisions related to possible changes in the quarantine regime at both the national and municipal levels, ”said A. Dulkys.
He noted that the other two indicators are used for this purpose: the number of new cases in 14 days is 100 thousand. Live and the proportion of positive test cases in the last 7 days. As a result of the new calculation, the position of the municipalities on the scoreboard has also changed.
“The third aspect is to expand the scope of testing. Now it is gratifying to see a decrease in the number of sick and symptomatic people. This also affects the scope of testing and has more room for preventive testing,” he said.
Three definitions of deaths from COVID-19 have been introduced
Head of the Lithuanian Department of Statistics (LSD) dr. Jūratė Petrauskienė reported that a lot of data has been reviewed and shifted to the main source, in many cases to e-health.
“Then you can compare them because they are from the same source. Only 4 epidemiological indicators are taken from the NVSC system. According to the decision of the operations manager, the indicators will be published in the new volume through the usual channels, ”he said.
The specialist wrote down the statistics of deaths and people with immunity. To dig deeper, he introduced three definitions of deaths from COVID-19.
The narrowest, used so far, when the main cause of death is the COVID-19 disease, the widest, when the disease is not the main one, but one of the causes. Third, the broader definition is anyone who is diagnosed with COVID-19 and dies within 28 days.
It was also estimated how many people are immune to the disease, that is, people who are sick, have antibodies and have been vaccinated.
“After reviewing the indicators, we noticed that there are cases in which a person has recovered, but there is no such record in the electronic health system. Therefore, applying certain logical rules, we also provide statistical numbers of patients and recuperators. We can also see that on the blackboards, ”said J. Petrauskienė.
The Minister agreed that the change in methodology broadens the concept of the phenomenon of death.
“And from this it can be concluded that as many as died directly from the COVID-19 disease, almost a second died those who were diagnosed with the disease, but then some other phenomena appeared, but it was not accurately recorded. That’s the truth, “said A. Dulkys.
The portal tv3.lt recalls that the shock over non-compliance with the numbers arose when Širvintos district mayor Živile Pinskuvienė shared the news that patients who were currently ill in the district were included and recovered a few months ago. The mayors of Ignalina, Kretinga, Plungė and Telšiai pointed to the same problem.
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