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Behind the cricket wing
There are changes compared to the top ten conservative elections in the Seimas, but many of them have been known before. Except for two. The first is that the internal classification will be crushed by the representative of the Christian wing Laurynas Kasčiūnas, of the second, by Radvilė Morkūnaitė-Mikulėnienė, even close to fifty votes (2976 and 2491 votes, respectively). The top two on the list, Ingrida Šimonytė and Gabrielius Landsbergis, are unclassified.
L. Kasčiūnas, who has just finished his first term in the Seimas, explained such support from his peers as follows: “First of all, I tried to be an active member of the Seimas. Although conservative in opposition, I had many suggestions in the areas of national security and social security. Furthermore, he was not afraid to criticize the ruling decisions. Many initiatives have led to my national visibility, and when you are active, the media notices it. Secondly, the party is a community, so I worked a lot within the party, I communicated with the divisions, I helped in the municipal elections and other matters. ” L. Kasčiūnas really stands out from many young conservatives because he communicates directly with party divisions, and other young politicians are limited to Facebook. Furthermore, the rating leader emphasizes that he has been active for all four years, not just in the run-up to the election.
L.Kasčiūnas: a 38-year-old boy from Vilnius, father of four, political science teacher and doctor of social sciences. Before becoming a member of Parliament, he worked at various research centers for ten years, headed the Center for Eastern European Studies, and taught at the Institute for International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University. The political scientist studied in depth the issues of Lithuanian national security and foreign policy.
In 2009, the then President of Seimas Irena Degutienė invited him to become her advisor on foreign policy issues. At the time, there were doubts about such an option, because L. Kasčiūnas was previously a member of the National Democratic Party, which fought against Lithuania’s accession to the European Union, including the deputy of its leader, the radical Mindaugas Murza.
But today L. Kasčiūnas says that he is not a euroskeptic: “I am in favor of the European Union, the only question is why. It should not become a federal entity. “
The Conservatives did not raise the sole representative of the cricket wings to the top of the ranking: Irena Degutienė, who had been the leader of this wing for many years, decided to withdraw from active politics and not participate in the elections, but L. Kasčiūnas was third, Paulius Saudargas was third and Audronius Až was sixth.
Perhaps conservatives do not like the more liberal party leadership outlined by G. Landsbergis, if such support was received by Christian politicians?
From 35 places – to the elite
Conservative President G. Landsbergis is also reluctant to have complete confidence in the opinions of other parties. Conservatives, unlike liberals or Social Democrats, could not classify one but the first two names on the electoral roll. Here only the peasants surpassed them, who did not allow them to classify among the first three. Not only that, both leaders of the conservative list had the right to adjust the list. They exercised this right, to put it mildly, from the shoulder.
Thus, the second surprise appeared in the top ten: Jurgita Šiugždinienė from Kaunas: he became ninth, although his teammates assigned him only 35 places. On the one hand, the politician may have deserved to ascend even in more than 26 positions; after all, he was the head of the TS-LKD program working group. Conservatives associate hope with this policy and regain the confidence of Kaunas residents. Last November, she was elected president of the Kaunas City Branch Conference, topped the list of Kaunas conservatives in the municipal elections, which won eight seats, and remained second among the seven candidates in the elections for the town hall.
The decision to elevate J.Šiugždinienė (in the middle) to ninth place on the candidate list caused a lot of gossip, although the peers assigned him only 35 spots in the ranking.
J.Šiugždinienė’s experience in the field of public administration is unquestionable: in 2009–2012, she headed the Strategic Management Department of the Prime Minister’s Office, and was the first vice-chancellor and chancellor of the prime minister. For more than ten years, authorities in various countries have been advising on public administration issues. She is a doctor of social sciences, former vice-rector of the Kaunas University of Technology and interim rector, former advisor to the United Nations.
However, some former party members are surprised if such a large branch of Kaunas had unanimously supported its president and summoned others, if it had communicated more not only with the top of the party, perhaps its starting point in the ranking wouldn’t be just in the mid-1930s. Or maybe party members don’t like the program prepared under his leadership? Distributing among the divisions of the party council, the representatives do not hide the regret that even here their voice is not very audible. So it is not for nothing that the parties wonder what value the classification has, if a place in the list can individually rise up to 26 positions. But, of course, the final point on the list will already be set by voters.
Strange rocking chair
I was also surprised by the rocking done by G. Landsbergis and myself. Šimonytė in the top ten, it is true that the jumps are not so drastic here. Former MEP Laima Andrikienė went from position 21 to 22 to position 15. The politician really has a lot of experience that would be useful to the Seimas. However, many conservatives have discussed in informal conversations whether he can be intercepted by party patriarch Vytautas Landsbergis, because L. Landsdris is very upset by the young Landsbergis. The policy also publicly criticized the former Conservative leadership, and in 2016 his letter to G.Landsberg was made public, outraged that he was applying double standards and attacking then-Lazdijai District Mayor Artūras Margelis for the transparency of public procurement. “If you think that doing so will make you look better: an objective, demanding and honest president, then there will be no such result.” Because by the same logic, following the president of our party in the Supervisory Committee, we would have to argue often and demand conclusions based on principles. But we are not doing that! ”- L.Andrikien escribió wrote, apparently recalling the business-related scandal of G. Landsbergis’s wife’s private school.
Incidentally, at the time G.Landsbergis was a member of the European Parliament (EP), and L.Andrikienė was first behind the line. After intense calls from G. Landsbergis to return to Lithuania to prepare for the Seimas elections, L.Andrikienė took the remaining seat in the EP.
In the next ten on the list, the first two people made significant corrections: Gvidas Rutkauskas, president of the Union of Political Prisoners and Deported, was raised from 55 to 30 years old, Andrius Vyšniauskas, head of electoral staff, from 45 to 35, Kristijonas Bartoševičius, a public figure and teacher on “Bicycle News”. Saulius Poška, the director of Mėslita, from 121 to 106.
The new, completely unclassified surnames on the list caused even more surprise to fellow supporters: Advertiser Liudvika Pociūnienė came in at number 29, well above many active party members, at the 42nd Klaip profesorda University professor, senior advisor to the Lithuanian Armed Forces Valdas Rakutis.
Rookies are far away
By the way, when it comes to the newcomers to the list, they all seem to have been unhappy, both them and the old ones in the group. Other parties, if they are already inviting a known person, whom they see as a person of value to the party, not only during the election, according to their peers, they assign him a place on the list without rating him. Conservatives “threw” the newcomers into the common cauldron.
Former aide to President Dalia Grybauskaitė, Mindaugas Linge, still had a good 25 place (there were 24 in the ranking), and former Armed Forces Commander Arvydas Pocius was 31 (28 in the ranking). But, for example, the famous child psychologist Linas Slušnys was only in position 54 (in the ranking of 51), the former Minister of the Environment Kęstutis Navickas in position 59 (in the ranking of 58).
But the will of the party members deserved the fugitives. This time, up to three former members of the Union of Peasants and Greens (LVŽS) faction go to the polls with conservatives, who might have thought these parties were related. But Justas Džiugelis – only 45 (in the ranking – 40), Bronislovas Matelis – 63 (in the ranking – 73), Raimundas Martinėlis is bred by conservatives only in the eastern district of a single member of Sėla.
Several newcomers received single-member constituencies, in many cases outraged by party divisions. There was also a protest against R. Martininlis’s candidacy: the Rokiškis branch had unanimously approved its candidate, a member of the district council, a conservative since 2008 and a teacher, Dijan Meškauskienė. And R.Martinėlis was nominated and approved by the Kupiškis branch, although only one district of this municipality belongs to this district. Rokiškėnai publicly stated that they would not support the imposed candidate. R.Martinėlis was elected to the Seimas in a single member, as an independent candidate, but he also ran with the “Order and Justice” list, and was in the Seimas faction until February of last year.
There was resentment in other sections as well, rhetorically asking if local politicians were putting up election posters.
There has been a change of generations.
Therefore, it can be said that before these elections, the TS-LKD has a clearer division, not so much between generations as between the capital and the divisions, it is true, not in large cities, and the average age is higher .
The turn of generations caused a lot of scandal before the 2016 elections. Like the ironic fact that the conservative patriarch V. Landsbergis’ granddaughter, almost inherited, gathered the young people around him in his first elections to the Seimas, scandals arose from They were being sponsored, they announced more, the party elders were upset that they had been deprived of single-member groups. won for a year.
Although the conservative conservatives did not win, they did well, and some of the debutantes undoubtedly, far from it all, have now received considerable support from the party. Monika Navickienė, who has been working during her first term at Seimas, was ranked 25th on the 2016 list, and now even reached the top ten in the ranking, and only due to J.Šiugždinienė’s rotation remained out of it. . Gintarė Skaistė was 35th, and in this election, 18th. A politician with a doctorate in social sciences has managed to distinguish herself as an active and competent parliamentarian.
This time, the younger generation has more room left and due to the three retired leaders of the older conservatives: I. Degutienė is not running at all, and two conservative predecessors, Andrius Kubilius and Rasa Juknevičienė now reside in the golden paradise of political pensioners.
Audronius Ažubalis and Jurgis Razma remained in the top ten in the fight for the restoration of independence. A symbolic sign that the Sąjūdis generation is being replaced by young people: one of the top ten is G. Landsbergis, grandson of Sąjūdis forerunner V. Landsbergis, the other is Paulius Saudargas, son of the Prime Minister of Foreign Affairs, Algirdas Saudargas.
This time, the top ten are pretty young: Four of them won’t even turn 40 on Election Day. The youngest, R.Morkūnaitė-Mikulėnienė, will be 36 years old, the brightest star, L.Kasčiūnas, and the group’s president, G.Landsbergis, 38. The oldest among the top ten are A.Ažubalis, 62, and J .Razma, a couple of months younger than him.
But today L. Kasčiūnas says that he is not a euroskeptic: “I am in favor of the European Union, the only question is why. It should not become a federal entity. “
But even after the withdrawal of long-term representatives of the party elite from the fight for mandates, only J. Šiugždinienė managed to enter the top 10 among current members of the Seimas, and this is only thanks to G. Landsbergis and I. Šimonytė. As expected, the TS-LKD faction in Seimas is large, 36 members, so the competition is huge. Only I.Degutienė and Mantas Adomėnas are not on the list. He belongs to the faction, but is no longer a party member – he was removed from him in 2018 for relationships with MG Baltic. In the elections, he intends to challenge the current president of Seimas Viktoras Pranckietis. Conservatives will not nominate a party candidate in this constituency.
The positions of other current parliamentarians on the electoral roll are very different. M.Navickienė, Žygimantas Pavilionis, Vytautas Juozapaitis, Dainius Kreivys, Mykolas Majauskas, Antanas Matulas, G.Skaistė, Kazys Starkevičius, Aistė Gedvilienė – in the top ten, but, for example, Algis Strelčiūnas was ranked 64th and that the group was 64, and after the group was ranked 120, and only after the party was 120 like.
As in the previous elections, there were four women in the top ten, six men.
So it is not for nothing that the parties wonder what value the classification has, if a place in the list can individually rise up to 26 positions.
Winning desperately
So now the biggest puzzle is whether conservatives will be able to maintain the lead in the Seimas elections, which has long been shown in sociological polls. And if so, will it be possible to form a ruling majority?
Vilmorus / Lietuvos rytas June TS-LKD poll promises 24.9 percent. votes (counting the decided ones). However, COVID-19 melted its ratings and the LV®S raised it: farmers recovered first place in the latest Baltic Research poll.
The bad news for conservatives is that even after winning an election, they can run out of allies to form a ruling majority. To the disappointment of some conservatives and their constituents, Landsberg declared that he would fraternize the coalition with all political forces. The only exception is the Polish Lithuanian Election Campaign: the Union of Christian Families, whose member Irina Rozova concealed her ties to Russian diplomats. But the problem is that not all parties want to fraternize with the conservatives.
If the TS-LKD is bogged down in its perpetual opposition, it could require a search for culprits with cardinal changes in the party.
It will be seen how far the list’s non-partisan locomotive, I.Šimonytė, will stretch for the first time. In the 2016 elections, the LVŽS successfully tested it, and now TS-LKD followed suit. In Europe, parties use nonpartisan professionals for governments, but that a party regarded as the favorite of the elections should not have a suitable leader on the list is a Lithuanian phenomenon that can be attributed to a controversial case.
The question is why a party so old and one of the largest in Lithuania cannot develop a leader and why there are no arguments to invite I. Šimonytė to join the party. But in this case, not only the party list should be changed, but also the party leader.
And at last place 141 on the list, he certainly is not the last important person, the adviser to G.Landsbergis in Seimas Matas Maldeikis, the son of MEP Aušra Maldeikienė. It is true that he used to be a Social Democrat, with this party in the elections. But conservatives are no longer as demanding on value as they used to be.
And the competition for last place on the list isn’t as intense as for the top ten, but it’s a coveted position. Voters for some reason feel the thrill of keeping last on the list. Former conservative Egidijus Vareikis was the last member of the LVŽS in the last election, ranking 23rd and becoming a member of the Seimas. At that time, the last conservative on the list, Martynas Šiurkų, was raised by 99 voters, but it was not enough to enter the Seimas, as was the Social Democrat Antanas Sireikas, who rose to the 20th position.
We will see how it will be this time on October 11.
Homeland Union-Christian Democrats Top Ten
2. Gabrielius Landsbergis
3. Laurynas Kasčiūnas
4. Radvilė Morkūnaitė-Mikulėnienė
5. Paulius Saudargas
6. Arvydas Anušauskas
7. Agnė Bilotaitė
8. Audronius Ažubalis
9. Jurgita Šiugždinienė
10. Jurgis Razma
Current Seimas members: 9
Existing members of municipal councils: 1
It was in 2016. in the top ten of the electoral roll: 6
Age: from 36 to 62 years, average 46.5 years.
Gender equality: men 6, women 4
Policy debutants: 0
Party runners – up to: 0
Nonpartisan members: 1
Controversial cases: 1
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