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The recent move by the UK to abolish the divorce deal with Europe and completely ignore the idea of regional autonomy renews the need for independence for some of Britain’s restless peoples. This is especially true in Scotland, where a referendum on independence was held six years ago, when it was decided to leave everything as is.
Still, it has led many people in Scotland, and elsewhere, to think about what Scottish foreign policy might look like in the future, what it might mean for Britain, NATO and the North Atlantic region. Three centuries after Scotland withdrew from the main scene, the idea of its return began.
Several people in Scotland no longer expected to have ties to the rest of the UK, as evidenced by the 2014 independence referendum, although with a slight difference, it was decided not to choose independence. But the Brexit epic pushed everything even further. The recent move by the conservative government of Prime Minister Boris Johnson to rewrite part of the Brexit deal with the European Union, which has already been negotiated, could raise the border with Ireland and become a test of the integrity of the United Kingdom. This has led to renewed calls for Scotland to try to break free from England, become a member of the EU and pursue its own goals. The Scottish worldview would then be much closer to Brussels than to London.
“Brexit has changed absolutely everything,” said Stephen Gethins, a former Foreign Policy spokesman for the Scottish National Party (SNP) until last year. 2020 Polls showed that a strong but small majority is in favor of independence, and the SNP should easily win a convincing election next year.
Defenders of Scottish independence
Brexit has changed the independence debate, changed the way Scotland is perceived abroad. People now understand that, they understand the difference between London’s unilateral approach and the multilateralism that prevails among Scottish political parties, ”explains Gethins, who currently works for St. Andrius University.
London’s attempt to commemorate the rest of the UK has enraged many people. “There is no trust left in this relationship, absolutely none,” said Mike Russell, secretary to the Scottish Constitution, Europe and Foreign Affairs, and assistant in Scotland’s Brexit negotiations with the UK. The Brexit drama, which lasted for more than four years, changed the foreign perception of Scotland. In the past, it has been viewed negatively due to separatist aspirations, with the latest attempt at independence sparking open hostility from everyone from then-US leader Barack Obama to Russian leader Vladimir Putin. But now Scotland is seen as wanting to participate. To be sure, Scots, used to shared sovereignty, actively voted to remain in the European Union in the 2016 Brexit referendum, while the majority of English people voted to leave.
An independent Scotland would be a member of the European Union and NATO, at least in light of the current vision of the SNP, and it would be particularly involved in Arctic and North Atlantic security issues. SNP politicians compare the future sovereign state they paint in their visions to Ireland and the Nordic and Baltic countries.
Scotland is working to assure Europe and the West that an independent Scotland, according to European security analyst Kirsty Hughes, is one of the “recognized good intentions of other countries.”
Sean Clerkin hung a Scottish independence note at Edinburgh Airport
This statement does not break off the finger. SNP leaders, including party leader Nicolas Sturgeon, are increasingly talking about Scotland’s ability to work hard and “work constructively with partners around the world.”
However, as a not yet sovereign country but aiming to become one soon, Scotland has a lot of work to do, Hughes notes. “Scotland is not yet thinking strategically,” the analyst said, calling Scotland’s efforts to develop an independent foreign policy “superficial” or even focused on specific issues.
“Some people in Scotland don’t seem to realize how practical and uncompromising foreign policy is in Europe,” Hughes said. However, Scotland’s future foreign and defense policy, if it exists, will be crucial.
“From an international security perspective, Scotland is really important,” said Peter Jackson, an international security expert at the University of Glasgow.
Defenders of Scottish independence
© Zuma Press / Scanpix
However, the fate of Britain’s nuclear-armed submarines, currently on the River Clyde near Glasgow, is of particular concern. Scottish leaders like Sturgeon say they don’t want nuclear weapons on Scottish soil. However, Scotland seeks to be important to the security of NATO and the North Atlantic, and these submarines are a means of nuclear deterrence.
“The whole area of security is rife with disputes over independence; it must be resolved one way or another,” Jackson said. He speculates that the UK could lease a naval base from a sparse Scotland which, after gaining independence, would attempt to build an economic base, although such a solution would be politically unpopular. “Some interim defense agreements with the UK will be necessary,” said an international security expert.
However, this does not mean that an independent Scotland must adapt to London’s approach to all important issues. This raises even more questions for the country, which will still have to decide what kind of trade and security relations it will have with Europe and the United States.
What will be the role of Scotland in Libya or Iraq in the future? I imagine it will be very different from the future role of the UK. This will cause a wide range of problems, “explains Jackson.
“Scotland really does have a place in the predominant image of Europe – the way we see ourselves in the world matches this image. When you are a country the size of Scotland, you don’t imagine yourself with nuclear missiles or on the Security Council of the United Nations, but you see yourself sharing sovereignty with other countries, that’s where our strength lies, ”says Gethins.
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