One of the Experts: If people don’t follow the movement restriction, it’s not worth giving it up

He said on the show that although the number of cases is gradually decreasing again, we cannot predict a faster decline yet.

“I don’t see any signs in the data that we can say that the decline will accelerate yet. We cannot say that it will start to accelerate now. We now have a situation where we have been standing still since about February 16. That rate of our cases in 14 days it is 100,000. “The population shows that we have fallen below 250, but since February 16, that number has been hovering,” he said.

V. Zemlys – Balevičius stated in the program that it is necessary to be satisfied with the drop in the percentage of positive research.

“What happened well is that the proportion of positive investigations dropped by 1 percent, from 7 to 6 percent. If we now had such an influence when we stood still, let’s move on. Because everyone wants us to tackle that epidemic. But the fact that we have been on our feet for almost a month is worrying, “said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.

A member of the expert board explained that it is still difficult to say why we have seen an increase in cases in recent weeks.

“Hard to say. More data is needed to say why it is so wavy. Clearly, we lack data from the National Public Health Center (NVSC) on outbreaks. Because looking at the total number of cases, we can affirm the fact of the increase, but it’s really harder to figure out where it’s from, ”explained the data scientist.

He said that if these data were available, it would be possible to clearly say why there is an increase in cases where infections are increasing.

“Looking at the mobility data from Google and Apple, we can see that mobility has increased, for one reason. On the other hand, test volumes have increased. These are various hypotheses, but it is quite difficult to say what caused or fell. specifically ”, explained V. Zemlys – Balevičius in the program“ Delfi rytas ”.

Although the number of cases is slowly declining again, the death statistics are still not encouraging. According to the interlocutor of the program “Delfi rytas”, the rates of deaths and hospitalization follow the cases.

“What we all forget is the prevalence of the British variety. Now there is the greatest risk that this British strain, which is more contagious, will gradually spread to us. Perhaps she contributed to that increase. But we do not have those data that show the prevalence in one region or another, “said the interviewee of the program.

Time to remove movement restrictions?

On Monday, the Government Emergency Commission (WESC) will decide how to release the movement restrictions.

According to V. Zemlis-Balevičius, it is necessary to assess whether this restriction is respected.

“All restrictions are beneficial as long as they are enforced. The question now is to what extent that restriction is actually enforced when it comes to movement between municipalities. The government has data on the movement of transport, according to which it could decide, could share it. with the public. (…) If now the movement between municipalities has increased, it means that people are not complying with that restriction. And if it is not observed, there is no point in maintaining it, “said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.

He explained that if this restriction is still observed, it can help prevent the spread of the British strain of the virus in Lithuania.

“If it is not very widespread in Lithuania yet, what does it mean if we liberate the movement? That means we will take it to the whole country. This is not good because the British variety is more dangerous, it spreads better. I am not saying that will be the case, but we run the risk of growing, ”said the data scientist.

What will summer be like?

According to the Department of Statistics, Lithuania is still in scenario C. When we get conditions of quarantine scenario B, or even A, depending on the interlocutor, it is difficult to tell.

“It just came to our notice then. And all the predictions are useless, we can only talk about ‘what if’ scenarios. Because, for example, on February 17 we had a drop of around -20 percent, which is the part of the month we were in, if the fall had persisted, it would have been significantly closer to that B scenario ”, he explained.

V. Zemlys – Balevičius predicted that in the summer we will be able to live much more freely.

“Yes, in my opinion, given the seasonality, the processes are underway, although they may not be visible, it should definitely help. I have to see in the expert meeting, although our state is not working as fast as it would like, but work continues in preparation to establish contacts. And the seasonality of the virus should definitely help us in the summer too. People criticize that we will live with that virus forever, but I do not see (reasons, aut.

He agreed that risks still exist, even with the British strain of the virus.

“They can ruin everything, here is the only risk. But if we use epidemic management tools to lower the number of cases to Scenario A that we did last summer, then we will live normally ”, assured the member of the expert council.

V. Zemlys-Balevičius urged everyone to be ambitious and manage the pandemic.

According to the Statistics Department, last day 213 new cases of COVID-19 were detected in the country, eight people died from this infectious disease. On the last day, more than 2.7 thousand tests were carried out.

The rate of new illnesses in the last 14 days is 100,000. the population reaches 238.7 cases.