One month after Lukashenko’s threats: the burden in Lithuania has only increased Business

Klaipeda port does not have Belarusian cargo and the railways do not contain fertilizers from Belarusian factories. Losses: hundreds of millions. Such a scenario was worked out by A. Lukashenko, who is considered the last European dictator, and has already started negotiations with the Russian side on logistical details, and even talked about the construction of a new port in Russia.

The Klaipeda State Port Authority and the Lithuanian Railways quickly calculated how much would be lost, but a month later the cargo moved as it did. The port has even more cargo. Lithuanian carriers also got used to stricter checks and queues at the border, urgently replacing trucks with Lithuanian numbers with Belarusian registration machines.

It is true that Belarus announced that it would not import oil through the Klaipeda port in October, but it was a temporary solution to the conflict with Russia.

A tenth more cargo in the port

Klaipeda port is the first to lose cargo, but so far the mood is not bad. According to preliminary data, cargo increased 9.3 percent in the last month. If in September of last year 3.6 million were handled. tons of cargo, this September, according to preliminary data, 3.95 million. heaps.

Such data 15 minutes presented by the representatives of the Port. It is true that the data is inconclusive, but it should not change significantly.

That jump was also caused by grain handling, but the decrease in Belarusian cargo was also not felt.

“The statistics we have so far do not register a drop. And September was very” fertile “in the port for cereals and liquid and bulk fertilizers.” 15 minutes said Dovilė Ringis, deputy director general of Public Relations of the Port.

The railroads carried even more

Lithuania Railways previously estimated that the loss of Belarusian freight would cost around one hundred million euros a year, but so far there has been no push here.

According to the company’s representative, Martynas Burba, preliminary data show that in September there was no less and probably more cargo than in August.

In August, the Belarusian cargo flow to Klaipeda reached 1.3 million. heaps.

Immediately after the threats, the Belarusian state press began to write that the Baltic countries would be affected by the sanctions. Lukashenko’s press service telegram channel Pul pervovo even warned that due to Belarusian sanctions, suppliers of goods could choose other alternative routes to transport goods and therefore not through the Baltic States.

However, Lukashenko’s rhetoric also changed during the month. For example, on September 16, he stated that cargo will be redirected from the Baltic states to Russian ports if the latter state offers similar conditions.

Now the goods travel to Russia by truck in transit through Lithuania or Latvia. However, experts have already pointed out that the closure of the border would mainly go through Belarus itself, as the Baltic states would receive an adequate response. Both the President and Prime Minister of Lithuania have already mentioned this.

The Poles haven’t felt it yet either.

If the EU imposed an embargo on Belarusian products, it would cross the already difficult Belarusian economy.

This was mentioned by Marcin Przydacz, a representative of the Secretary of the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs. “If there are problems with the transit of our goods to the East, retaliatory decisions will be made,” he said. He added that Mr. Lukashenko’s statement on economic sanctions had no effect on Poland.

In his opinion, these threats are made in an attempt to intimidate society and present the West as an enemy.

“It just came to our attention then. From what we understand, Alexander Lukashenko is playing psychological warfare and talking about things that have nothing to do with reality,” he said.

It should be noted that the countries with which Belarus has particularly weakened after the presidential elections are the most important trading partners or at least in the top ten. For example, in January-July, Ukraine was the second most important trading partner, Poland the fifth and Lithuania the sixth.

Until now, economic logic has prevailed

Independent experts in Belarus believe that the country in crisis needs a peaceful political relationship with its trading partners.

“Lately we have heard a lot of political rhetoric, but there must be economic objectives in the actions of the Belarusian government. Otherwise, the political rhetoric could significantly weaken the economy of the country as a whole,” Belapan.by quotes Irina Tochickaja, research director of the IMP Research Institute in Belarus.

In his opinion, in the economic sphere, Belarus should not give up trade relations with the EU countries. “We should not try to direct all our exports to Russia, because it also carries many risks. Time has already shown that the weakening of the Russian economy has an immediate effect on the Belarusian economy, so the geographical diversification of Belarusian exports is extremely important “, emphasized the expert.

Furthermore, in his opinion, it would not be worth it for Belarus to trade with other countries only through Russia. “This world is very competitive and Belarus cannot afford to choose more expensive logistics over cheaper European countries,” he said.

“The Belarusian government pursues political motives rather than economic ones. The government feels like it is on the front lines,” said Yevgeny Preigerman, head of the Minsk Dialogue Council.

In his view, the government is trying to follow only political logic in trying to move cargo from the West to the East. By the way, Lukashenko’s proposal to Putin to build a port in the Leningrad region also comes from a political rather than an economic sphere. Lukashenko believes that such a port would belong mainly to Belarus, although in another country.

Don’t reject their suggestions

“There is a high probability that the Belarusian authorities will try to offer conditions for the transfer of cargo from the Lithuanian port to Russia. And Belarus is less likely to try to block the entry of European goods, because a response is expected,” he said.

I also believe that if the crisis in Belarus deepens and the EU continues to support the protests, the Belarusian authorities will be guided by political rather than economic motives.