Once freed from the coronavirus, we can get into the clutches of another epidemic: warn to start preparing

For clarity, let’s compare the incidence of influenza over the past 3 years. The influenza morbidity rate is calculated according to the number of sick people per 10,000 inhabitants of Lithuania. So at the same time in 2019, 67.5 people had the flu; – 79.9 respectively. Well, this year the figure is only 11.5.

So where did the flu go?

Infectious disease specialist Saulius Čaplinskas sees two main reasons for such low morbidity: one of them is possible statistical errors.

“It is well known that people visit the doctor much less. If the flu is not tested, it does not enter the statistics. And in general, reliance on statistics, especially now, is not always possible. Anyone who enters the treatment center on suspicion of COVID-19 should also be tested for influenza. They must register in the eHealth system. It is a question of whether the NVSC “catches” them or whether those cases are analyzed, “said S. Čaplinskas.

Well, secondly, quarantine measures. According to the interlocutor, they help protect not only from the coronavirus, but also from influenza, tuberculosis and in the spring from hay fever.

“It is natural that when people’s lives are closed in this way, when people have little contact with each other, and if they do, only by wearing masks is the spread of the flu virus prevented,” said S. Čaplinskas.

Also, the coronavirus spreads faster than the flu. As the interlocutor recalled, the main strain of the Wuhan coronavirus is infected about 8 times faster than the seasonal flu. Well, and the British variety ranges from 50 to 70 percent. faster than the original coronavirus strain.

The flu could break out next year

Still, the flu virus is in the wild and has certainly not gone anywhere, even if it may look different right now. Still, such low morbidity could be a big problem next year.

“The virus has not disappeared and is circulating not only among humans but also among animals. This means that the flu will return when the next cold season rolls around. Because fewer people have had the flu this year, fewer people will have immunity next year. Therefore, it is projected that in 2022 we can expect an increase in influenza morbidity. If a pandemic strain of influenza occurs, the spread will be even faster, “said S. Čaplinskas.

It’s true that the flu strain is new every year, so you need to get vaccinated every season. However, even if another strain is sick, the next season a person will still have some immunity to the new strain, unless they have drastically changed. The infectious disease specialist explains this phenomenon in more detail.

“Mutations in the RNA virus are common in nature. Researchers are not surprised that the coronavirus is mutating. Naturally, the purpose of the virus is one: to find host cells as quickly as possible where it can reproduce. If strains appear that they can do this faster, whether it’s coronavirus, flu, or adenovirus, it will spread faster.

In the case of the coronavirus, no one has immunity. It is now clear that there is partial immunity to other coronaviruses when we have had colds. However, such immunity is not enough to protect against COVID-19. In the case of the flu, it is basically the same: if a person becomes infected with a strain of the virus that they have had before, it is possible that the immunity works and that they do not get sick. But if there are major mutations in the flu, people will not have immunity and the flu will spread more severely, “said the interlocutor.

This already happened in the world when the so-called avian and swine flu pandemics spread. The flu was not in the animals, but mutated in them, eventually resulting in strains against which humans had no immunity.

“There is definitely a big problem with the flu next year, we cannot say for sure. But it is likely to happen. Inevitably, birds that can transmit the virus will come with birds from the southern hemisphere,” said S. Čaplinskas.

Every year, the World Health Organization (WHO) tries to predict in advance what type of flu will circulate next season. Based on this, a seasonal flu vaccine is made and production takes half a year. However, if the modified flu virus spreads accidentally during that time, the vaccine may not be effective.

“As a result, it is said that the effectiveness of an influenza vaccine in protecting against serious illness can only reach 10 to 60 percent. However, in any case, even if the effectiveness of the vaccine is low, immunity you will remember that encounter with the virus and you will also have some protection against other strains. As a result, it is necessary to get vaccinated against the flu every year, even if the vaccine is less effective than desired, “explained S. Čaplinskas.

According to the interlocutor, seasonal influenza was the most expensive contagious disease in Lithuania before the coronavirus. In the last 10 years, the number of people vaccinated against seasonal flu has doubled due to specific educational activities, which, according to S. Čaplinskas, is a great achievement.

However, there is still a lot of uncertainty and uncertainty about what the incidence of flu will be next year. If the public thinks the flu is gone and they no longer need to be vaccinated, next year will be even stronger.

“Efforts must be made to prevent a contagious disease from disappearing, we must try to predict where it can spread and what to do to prevent it from happening,” warned S. Čaplinskas.

There may also be fewer cases of influenza due to the predominant coronavirus

Alvydas Laiškonis, professor and infectologist at the Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, also identifies two main reasons why the incidence of influenza has reached an unprecedented low.

“First, it’s the quarantined and out-of-school schools, because the flu spreads mainly through schools because it is often brought in by children from schools. Then it spread to families and from families to workplaces. The requirements for quarantine, the use of masks and the maintenance of distances have reduced it and it is felt throughout Europe, not just in Lithuania, ”said the professor.

The second reason is viral interference. It is a process in the world of viruses where a stronger virus displaces a weaker one.

“If there are two viruses that appear at the same time, the stronger one wins. Now the coronavirus is stronger and spreading, and the spread of a weaker virus, in this case the flu, is halting the spread. In my head, for these two reasons, it happened that we only have a few people with the flu, ”said prof. A. Laiškonis.

The professor also shares the fear that next season we will have an influenza epidemic instead of a coronavirus: “It is a very real idea.”

Furthermore, according to the infectologist, even vaccines may not protect against this problem, as Lithuanians are currently very skeptical about it.

“Now there is a really terrible problem with vaccines: people don’t believe in coronavirus vaccines, I don’t know how much they will believe in flu vaccines. And then Lithuania was in the “tail” for flu vaccines. It is impossible to predict what will happen in the future, because our society is very determined against all vaccines. There is now a shortage of people who would get vaccinated against the coronavirus in certain groups. And this disease is much more serious than the flu and the consequences are more serious. It is very difficult to predict what will happen in a few years due to the flu, “said Prof. A. Laiškonis.