Olaf Scholz was simply going through a serious crisis. He was waiting for it

The 63-year-old German finance minister committed herself in the eyes of the people to her role in the last government of Angela Merkel, which was considered too moderate, too inflexible and too much like Merkel herself: the Social Democrats were eager to embark on a real change. Lowlands. During dinner with his wife and a close friend, O. Scholz felt depressed. He considered leaving politics in general.

But today, when the country’s election campaign has reached its final stage, Scholz is an obvious favorite.

His unexpected success is a testament to the turmoil Merkel is leaving this fall after 16 years in office, and how Covid-19 has shaken politics around the world. It’s a reminder that traditional values ​​like stability and prudence embodied by Merkel still resonate with German voters. And it’s also an indication of the shortcomings of Merkel’s personalized management style.

Although Merkel pulled Germany out of the debt crisis and pandemic, her inauguration planning turned into a complete disaster: the Conservative bloc chose a candidate who failed to motivate either the party or the electorate. That’s what opened the door for Mr. Scholz.

With only a third place in the polls just a few months ago, Scholz’s party gained an advantage of up to six points until Merkel’s Christian Democrats fell to their lowest level since the war. When the chancellor tried to rescue the party’s candidate, Armin Laschet, a couple of weeks ago, O. Scholz turned out to be one step ahead.

He took the initiative and supplemented his campaign with a suitable visit by a statesman to Paris. He met with French President Emmanuel Macron two days before Laschet seized the opportunity.

Scholz’s victory, who could still get bogged down in coalition negotiations even if he wins the election, would drive change in Europe’s largest economy by giving workers new rights, increasing social spending and public investment. Merkel told the Bundestag that Germany, led by Scholz, would face a slowdown in growth. She gave clues about her past.

The eldest of the three brothers, O. Scholz, in 1975, partnered with the Social Democrats to help “overcome the capitalist economy” and now laughs at their youthful radicalism.

He helped Gerhard Schroeder, the last chancellor of the SPD, implement a highly controversial labor reform and, during the financial crisis, served as Merkel’s Minister of Labor. 2011 Mr. Scholz became mayor of Hamburg.

He was praised for the active implementation of public projects. But he was also embroiled in a cum-ex tax scandal. These ties, like his ministry’s failure to expose Wirecard AG issues, still hang over his head, but voters seem too lazy. The biggest test for Scholz was the G-20 summit in 2017 in July, when anarchists took to the streets in hoods and looted the legendary city center.

Scholz has been criticized for failing to meet security requirements ahead of the meeting, but has finally weathered the storm, covered in part by Merkel herself.

At the time, he was preparing for re-election and defending the decision to hold a meeting in Germany’s second-largest city. When the elections ended with another so-called “grand coalition” between Merkel’s conservatives and the SPD, Scholz became her finance minister. At that point, his aspirations to run for the top job began to become apparent.

Scholz understood that the position at that time would help him succeed chancellor and that the end of the Merkel era meant that all possibilities were open. He also identified a characteristic of Merkel that she lacked: the ability to manage crises.

So, not yet knowing when and why they might be needed, Scholz and his team have started gathering measures that could be used in the event of a national emergency, says an informed official. It would be a great program of fiscal stimulus and public investment financed by debt: when (more precisely, if) it was launched, the image of Mr. Scholz in the eyes of the public would be transformed.

In an attempt to prepare German voters for his planned spending spree, Scholz began issuing warnings that the good times would one day come to an end and that Germany must be prepared for this, thus subtly alienating Merkel’s commitment to a balanced budget.

The inability to win the position of party leader only made his job difficult.

2019 in November, the SPD was already rolling up its sleeves to fight conservatives, rather than seeking cooperation and compromise. Scholz was seen as too close to Merkel’s centrist politics and was quietly left to leave when the new left leadership team was delivering victory speeches.

Just a few days later, the first cases of a strange new respiratory infection were detected in Wuhan, China. 2020 At the beginning of the 19th century, when Covid-19 spread across Europe, Scholz was simply going through a serious crisis to which he was finally able to adapt his crisis plan.

In the days after the German economy shut down, it unveiled a program that ultimately distributed up to $ 470 billion in financial support to businesses and workers. Pomp has penetrated his already sober rhetoric, albeit still with its inherent monotony. “It will be a bazooka,” he said in 2020, presenting a pandemic relief program in March.

Suddenly, O. Scholz returned to the game.

However, the SPD leaders still did not expect to win the post of chancellor. The party hierarchy was convinced that they needed a period of opposition during which they could reorganize after coalitions with Merkel. They saw one electoral defeat after another end the careers of their predecessors. When Scholz was nominated as a candidate, he was the party’s only option, according to an SPD official who asked to remain anonymous.

At the time, the party fell to fourth place in the polls: Voter support was less than half that of the Conservatives, and the Social Democrats lagged even the nationalist AfD. Mr. Scholz didn’t seem to have a chance.

As Merkel’s party squabbled, whose owner was running for chancellor, Scholz used his platform as finance minister to strengthen the personal image of a strong and credible statesman.

Markus Soeder, a conservative prime minister of Bavaria and a potential contender in national elections, felt threatened. Around this time, he attacked Mr. Scholz in a private meeting. “You are not the German Chancellor,” Soeder said, and Scholz simply smiled and shrugged. “And you can’t smile like a smurf here,” said a Bavarian who wasn’t looking for a word in his pocket.

Later, Scholz confirmed the reports, adding that he wasn’t worried about being declared a Smurf because Smurfs always win.

In May this year, although his party was still ten points behind the Conservatives and the Greens, Scholz spoke calmly and confidently.

“Most people would think that I would be a very good chancellor, and if they could elect a chancellor directly, they would elect me,” he told Bloomberg. “That is what we want in the public debate: if you want to get the chancellor you want, you have to choose the party he represents.”

In August, he made his intentions very clear. In a series of photos in the Sueddeutsche newspaper, a smiling Scholz posed, squeezing his diamond-shaped thumbs and fingers, mimicking Merkel’s signature gesture. It was a decisive photo that brought the two politicians together and caused a stir on the conservative side.

How is it possible @OlafScholz Suddenly rising in the polls? The Süddeutsche Zeitung has its strategy by: https://t.co/65WokKD2Y1

– Germanynieuws.nl (@dld_nieuws) August 19, 2021

Scholz argues that much of Merkel’s politics, which voters like the most, comes from the SPD and not from the CDU camp.

“We have implemented many things that would never have been part of the CDU / CSU campaign program, from the minimum wage to the basic pension and an active response to the coronavirus crisis,” he told NTV in an interview.

In a modest campaign act on the other side of Berlin, a few kilometers from the party headquarters, where he once reached the lowest point of his political career, he seemed the embodiment of peace.

At the beer garden near the River Spree, O. Scholz chatted with a group of about 50 followers. The pleasure boat passengers greeted the candidate from the water. He spoke to a group of young protesters against climate change and vowed to lead the green transition. The party headquarters, which was so skeptical of Scholz before the pandemic, now seems quite certain of a future victory.

“Scholz is not the person we wanted to see as the leader of our party,” said Beate Laudzim, a party member. “But he has good arguments, and if he becomes chancellor, everyone will definitely be better off winning the CDU.”