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“The WHO has inadvertently declared that the coronavirus is no more dangerous to human life than the seasonal flu,” the website said. infa.lt header. Text: translation of a web page off-guardian.org English publications.
15 minute photo / Misleading post title
The text is based on the WHO Emergency Manual. Michaelo Ryano Remarks delivered at the organization’s management meeting from October 5 to 6. The original quote can be heard by clicking this linkby selecting a video from Session 1 and scrolling it to 1:01:33.
“The best estimates we have show that 10 percent of the world’s population may be infected with this virus. It depends on the state, it lives in a town or village and groups of people. But that means most of the world is in danger. ”Ryan said of COVID-19.
According to the latest data, there are currently 38 million in the world. confirmed cases of COVID-19, and the disease claimed just over a million lives. The figures given by M. Ryan are the WHO assessment, the data confirmed by tests without coronavirus.
Quote should to expressthat there are a number of unidentified cases of COVID-19 that could lead to the spread of the disease while increasing the number of deaths and prolonging the pandemic.
What do we really know about the coronavirus?
However infa.lt Y off-guardian.org the authors of the publications focused on the first sentence of the citation. According to the authors, the statement proves that COVID-19 is as dangerous as the flu. It should be noted that the WHO did not talk about the flu, that is, off-guardian.org author’s work.
In any case, the logic of the calculation is simple: if it infects 10 percent. humanity means that the coronavirus affects some 780 million people. people. Given that just over a million have died from the virus, it is off-guardian.org, means that 0.14% of those who suffer from the disease die from it.
Although no website provides information on deaths from seasonal flu, this is claimed to mean that COVID-19 is as dangerous as flu.
How deadly is the flu?
Let’s try to follow the same logic as the calculations off-guardian.org authors of the publication. This allows the use of numbers regardless of the circumstances and additional factors. Derivatives can be calculated on the basis of estimates by WHO scientists and more or less validated figures.
Sigismund Gedvila / 15min photo / Hand disinfection
Thus, the WHO says that in the world about 1 billion people suffer from seasonal flu each year. people, and it takes away from 290 thousand. up to 650 thousand. lives. That means that 0.09 percent die from seasonal flu. up to 0.065 percent infected with it.
If the data released in the spring that is a little more than 3 percent. COVID-19 infected with the virus dies is not true, and 0.14% actually die. infected, is still two-5 times more than the seasonal flu.
What is the situation in Lithuania? According to the Center for Communicable Diseases and AIDS (ULAC), 2015-2016 during flu season 22 people died from the disease in Lithuania. 2016–2017 m. the disease claimed 3 lives, 2017–2018 m. – 14, 2018–2019 m. – 26, the 2019–2020 m. – eleven.
In the past five years, 73 people have died from seasonal flu and COVID-19 has killed 106 people in Lithuania in 9 months this year. 2020 alone COVID-19 has claimed more lives than seasonal flu in five years.
15 minutes evaluation, infa.lt the post is misleading. The WHO representatives did not speak about the flu and did not compare the coronavirus with it. Also, according to the same calculation logic used in the publication, we do not obtain death rates from influenza equal to COVID-19.
The post was prepared in 15 minutes. in collaboration with Facebook a program to stop the spread of misleading news on the social network. More about the program and its rules – here.
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