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According to the doctor, the increase in the number of cases will be determined not only by the spread of the Delta strain, but also by the fact that a large part of the population will remain unvaccinated. It is true that the situation is expected to be better than last winter.
“A large part of the population are children who will not be vaccinated before the age of 12. Even if they do not suffer severely from COVID, they support the distribution. Still, about half of the population of Lithuania will be affected and, as of From the data we have, we can see that the varieties that are coming out are displacing the ‘British’ variety as it has displaced the previous ones. This will be a big spread, “said V. Pečeliūnas on Delfi’s television show” Facts and Opinions “.
Gytis Dudas, an epidemiologist working in Sweden, says that the Delta is a variety compared to the “British”, which was already considered 60 percent. easier to transfer, just as effective. According to him, it can also infect people who are already infected with coronavirus.
The alpha variant of the vaccine works the same way it should, but there are already strains, like Delta, that are quite different, to the point that they can infect people who have had other strains that have been vaccinated. What to expect in the future is increasingly difficult to predict at the moment, ”said G. Dudas.
“One thing we do know is that the boundary will still be somewhere, but we don’t know where it is, and the Delta strain has shown that a lot of unknowns remain.” A very small proportion of the mutations in the Delta strain are directly comparable to mutations. in other strains, which makes it more difficult to predict the behavior of new invisible strains, “he said.
Vaccination center in Vilnius
According to Dudo, the situation will be determined more precisely if there is data on the number of people living with another strain of coronavirus who have already contracted it and are dying.
“One of the things I have not yet investigated is how many of the people who re-infect another strain die and end up in hospitals. It seems to me that this will be a key indicator with which we can decide what the situation will be. Now we are talking about strains that are more likely to be infected even after vaccination, but it must be borne in mind that few people with Delta have symptoms after vaccination and an even smaller percentage end up in hospitals, “said the epidemiologist.
Sparrow: there is nothing wrong with being more relaxed now
Mr. Dud emphasizes that while statewide restrictions are being lifted, it should be understood that the virus is not slowing down.
“In many countries, it is this art that is causing the increase in cases of the Delta variety,” says the epidemiologist. Therefore, he said, it would be good for people to be careful and at least continue to wear masks indoors, even if that is not necessary.
“I think it’s a good idea in general. “It is common in many Asian countries to wear masks indoors throughout the year, and I think it is a very good cultural thing that can be common in the Western world after a pandemic,” said the epidemiologist.
Aurelija Žvirblienė, a professor at the Vilnius University (VU) Life Sciences Center, said at the time that as the situation improved, it was now really possible to relax more.
“We can rejoice, because the constant pressure to be afraid is daunting. I don’t see anything wrong with being more relaxed now. We really should send more positive messages, “says the professor.
According to her, the improvement in the situation was undoubtedly due to vaccination, as well as the number of people who have already fallen ill.
Aurelija Žvirblienė
It would be easier for you to get vaccinated
Although it is said that some new strains of coronavirus can be infected by vaccinated individuals, A. Žvirblienė emphasizes that after two doses of the vaccine, the protection is actually quite effective.
“People who are vaccinated with new strains are more likely to get sick. This will stimulate the immune system against the new strain. There would be people in the population whose resilience would evolve along with viral resistance,” explained the professor.
According to her, already in Lithuania in some districts you can have an immunity close to 60-70%. population. According to her, a significant number of those people who relapsed but did not undergo a coronavirus test would also contribute.
It is observed that Samogitia stands out in Lithuania with less vaccination activity. A. Žvirblienė says that there is a threat that the rate of vaccination in Lithuania in general will now slow down.
“There is probably some stubbornness in Samogitian. It’s hard to explain. There are a lot of people who may not believe in the virus, they don’t believe in its threat. Also, people who spend the winter are such ‘tough’ people and they can to think that the virus is not terrible for me, I will still put up with it. But I have people from my circle of acquaintances who really did not believe in the virus, but they got sick and then they already believed it, “said the professor.
According to her, mobile checkpoints could be useful when vaccinating without prior registration.
The professor is also concerned that some people only receive one dose of the vaccine to obtain a passport or to be able to travel. Epidemiologist G. Dud is also skeptical of some people’s plans to postpone vaccination until the fall.
“Some people do it for strategic reasons, supposedly the immunity will be fresher if they get vaccinated before the whole season. It should be remembered that the volume of vaccine deliveries is increasing and if people do not receive current vaccines, they will not be able to stay in the refrigerator for long that I know of. Vaccine stocks could run out, ”Dud told Facts and Opinions.
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