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Despite the official program, it is claimed that it is the coronavirus that may become the first topic of discussion among leaders. The general recommendations for EU COVID-19 were agreed this week.
According to the official agenda established in a letter to the EU leaders by the president of the EVS, Charles Michel, the meeting will begin at 3 pm (Brussels time) from an interview with David Sassoli, president of the European Parliament. There is no doubt that difficult negotiations on the EU budget and the Recovery Fund will be discussed. The day before, the European Parliament proposed a compromise, asking for an additional € 39 billion. 90 billion euros for the various programs. like before.
But the big shock is due to the “linking” of EU money to the rule of law, which is particularly opposed by Poland and Hungary. This topic is so unpleasant that we try not to bring it up.
“It makes no sense to talk about the EU budget and individual things like this, like the rule of law,” a senior EU official said informally on the eve of EVS.
However, these words were not very convincing, as Warsaw said this week that it would veto the budget if the rule of law was strengthened, and the Polish prime minister himself did not go to the EVS for alleged contact with COVID-19, which many have deciphered like a declaration from Warsaw.
Isn’t the disagreement with the British terrible for Lithuania?
The official program also includes a discussion on the stalled EU-UK negotiations. Chief negotiator Michel Barnier will report on the changes, which are still missing after EU leaders’ talks with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Wednesday night.
“Key issues include, in particular, level playing field, fisheries and management,” Ch wrote in a letter. Michelis.
Lithuania, whose economy, although not as dependent on the British market as Germany, tends to support the Berlin side. This is determined not only by the economic interests of the Lithuanian diaspora in the UK, but also by security interests.
Within the EU, the main dispute is between France, which defends an EU principled position in the negotiations, and Germany, which tends to accept the slogan “a bad deal is better than no deal”. Lithuania, whose economy, although not as dependent on the British market as Germany, tends to support the Berlin side.
“Knowing that in 2019. The UK was the sixth largest export market for Lithuanian products, and this agreement is also very necessary for our business community,” says the response DELFI.lt from the Lithuanian Ministry of Economy and Investment. According to the ministry, Britain accounts for about 5 percent. Lithuanian exports of goods and services. This creates about 1.3 to 1.5 percent. Lithuania GDP.
“If no agreement is reached, the business will be challenged not only by the customs duties that have arisen, but also by product certification, labeling declarations, various customs queues, etc.,” the ministry predicted.
Lithuania’s position vis-à-vis the British is determined not only by the economic interests of the Lithuanian diaspora in the UK, but also by security interests. The British play an important role in the context of deterring Russia and the security of the Baltic states.
“We must be prepared for both: agree and disagree. We need a clear plan of what we will do if there is no agreement. And regardless of the scenario, it is necessary to keep the UK as close to the EU as possible,” said President G. Nausėda at EVS on Thursday afternoon.
Due to customs duties, certification, increased logistics and other costs, goods produced in Lithuania can be on average 5 to 13 percent more expensive. and for sole proprietorships this may be reason enough to withdraw from the UK market, but we believe there will not be many such companies.
Lithuanian Ministry of Economy and Innovation
On the other hand, even the absence of an agreement is not so terrible for Lithuania, because our business has a lot of experience in trading with third countries and this experience can be used to adapt to new business conditions.
“Due to customs duties, certification, higher logistics and other costs, goods produced in Lithuania can be on average 5 to 13 percent more expensive. And for individual companies this can be a Reason enough to withdraw from the UK market, but we believe that there will not be many such companies. Results from an unrepresentative survey of companies serving the UK market in September indicate that while companies are not sufficiently aware So much of the new working conditions in the UK market, only a few would consider leaving the market, ”the Ministry said.
The EU needs billions
Over dinner, EU leaders should discuss the new climate targets.
Now that the goals have been set, Lithuania’s obligations and the cost of their implementation have also increased. So, according to diplomats, the crucial question is how much the EU will contribute financially and where that money will come from.
“In December last year. We agreed the EU 2050 on the goal of climate neutrality. Now we need to increase our 2030. emission reduction target so that we can achieve that ambition. The Commission has proposed a new target of at least 55 % until 2030 “, ch. Michelis.
Although Vilnius is not as hostile to “green” plans as, for example, Warsaw, setting new targets will have an impact on Lithuania. After all, in accordance with the above targets, when the EU planned to reduce by 40%. Lithuania had to reduce its emissions by 9%. in the non-industrial sector, which does not sell emission rights. This is estimated to require 14 billion. and by 2050 even 41 billion. euros, which Lithuania does not have much. Now that the goals have been set, Lithuania’s commitments and the cost of their implementation have also increased. So, according to diplomats, the crucial question is how much the EU will contribute financially and where that money will come from.
“We need a very fair cost sharing mechanism that can be based on GDP per capita at market prices. We also need an individual assessment of the possibilities of each EU country, including my country, Lithuania,” said G. Nausėda on Thursday.
While there is no doubt in reaching a concrete agreement on this issue, as it has been postponed to December, lengthy discussions are expected.
A new package of sanctions against Belarus?
The EVS agenda on Friday is easier: relations with Africa, the next meeting with the leaders of the African Union. It is true that other foreign policy issues will also be discussed. They are also not pleasant for everyone, especially what to do with Turkey’s actions in the Mediterranean. There are also sanctions against Russia for the poisoning of Alexei Navaln, which were also supported by Lithuania.
On Wednesday, EU representatives agreed to impose sanctions (freezing of accounts and ban on travel to the EU) on 6 Russian citizens and one company.
According to the German “Sueddeutsche Zeitung”, the sanctions list also includes Yevgeny Prigozhin, called “Putin’s chef”, who is associated with Russian “troll factories” and “Vagner” mercenaries in military conflicts.
Previously, The New York Times reported that the list included Alexander Bortnikov, head of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), Sergei Kirijenko, first deputy director of the presidential administration, Andrei Jarin, head of the administration’s internal policy board presidential, and Alexei Krivorochka and Pavel Popov, deputy defense ministers. Sergei Menjaila for the Federal District of Siberia. According to the German “Sueddeutsche Zeitung”, the sanction list also includes Yevgeny Prigozhin, called “Putin’s chef”, who is associated with Russian “troll factories” and “Vagner” mercenaries in military conflicts.
The situation in Belarus should also be discussed.
“As for Belarus, the situation is not improving and we see the attempts of the regime to punish and persecute the people of Belarus, peaceful protesters. We as the EU need a coordinated approach, a coordinated policy towards this regime.” … The EU should consider a second round of sanctions, a second package of sanctions against Belarus, “Nausėda said on Thursday, noting that there is no need to be fooled by the actions of Aliaksandr Lukashenko (meeting with the opposition in prison).
The EVS is taking place under special conditions, with the second wave of COVID-19 preventing the media from being admitted to the meeting, keeping executive delegations to a minimum, wearing masks and maintaining social distance everywhere.
Two more European Councils are scheduled for this year, but an unscheduled meeting could be held on the British talks. It is true that the question is whether they will be “alive” and not remote.
After all, Brussels, like all of Belgium, has invaded the “pioneers” of COVID-19 cases, an average of 5.5 thousand in the country. new cases per day, in the capital: more than 750 cases of COVID-19 per 100,000. population (for comparison, in all of Lithuania this indicator is only above 60). It is said that on Friday, the Belgian government may follow the example of France and introduce a curfew and further restrict activities in the services and entertainment sector.
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