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Well, the recent escalation of the conflict seems to benefit almost all but two key players: the local population and … the European Union.
But above all, in a row.
First of all, the conflict does not take place in Nagorno-Karabakh or, more precisely, in Arstach, as this unknown Republic of Armenia calls itself. Hostilities take place in seven regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan, which are not part of the Nagorno-Karabakh ASSR in the former Autonomous Territory of the Azerbaijan SSR. was captured during the conflict by Armenian separatist forces backed by Armenia and Russia living in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Second, a closer look at the map will reveal that the parties to the conflict are not Azerbaijan and Armenia, but Azerbaijan and the Republic of Arstach. It is true that this can only be said without wanting to see that the armed forces of the Republic of Armenia are actually involved in the conflict.
The forces of the conflicting sides are very unequal. The military budget of Azerbaijan alone is almost three times the total military spending of Armenia and Arstach. Similarly, many times more Azerbaijan has tanks, planes, artillery. The situation in Armenia is aggravated by the appreciation of modern weapons systems (unmanned aerial vehicles, high-precision artillery systems, armored vehicles and, moreover, no modern warfare is possible), the ability to quickly replenish armaments and refuel . After all, even Russia, which has bases in Armenia, is forced to transport its troops there on surrounding roads, through Iran.
As long as the conflict did not spread outside Karabakh, the Armenian side had geography. The ceasefire lines were established according to natural natural barriers – mountains. In the mountains, as you know, it is much easier to defend than to attack. Russia is also on the Armenian side, although Turkey is still being eclipsed, it is still the largest military power in the region.
On the Armenian side, there is potentially another important element: public opinion in the world. Armenians are not just Christians, they are also a very widespread ethnic group in the world, with strong influence on policy-making in Russia and France, as well as lobbying capabilities in the United States.
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