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Photo by Lucas Jackson (Reuters / Scanpix)
The global economy will reach an equilibrium level in the fourth quarter of the year, Morgan Stanley economists announced an optimistic scenario on Monday.
We are confident that the world economy is waiting for a V-shaped recovery, as we have witnessed a recovery recently, and many governments have taken economic stimulus measures on June 14. Bloomberg stands out in the forecast, economists at Morgan Stanley say.
They predict a deep but brief recession for the world. World GDP is expected to contract 8.6% in the second quarter of last year compared to the same period last year, and 20.6% in 2021. It will grow 3% in the first quarter.
According to Morgan Stanley, the recession will be short-lived, as the crisis has not caused major economic imbalances, less pressure on debt, and governments must step up their efforts to help them recover and spend enough money.
It is true that Morgan Stanley points out that the second wave of the pandemic and the emergence of the vaccine will undoubtedly have an impact on this forecast.
We assume that the second wave of the virus will arrive in the fall, but it will be controlled and countries will not have to, a specific region will suffice, according to the economist’s forecast, which assumes that universal vaccination can only be available in the summer of 2021.
Morgan Stanley’s forecasts are much more optimistic than other analysts. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted last week that the global economy was recovering more slowly than expected and that much uncertainty persisted about the future.
The increasing number of new cases of coronavirus in Beijing is also worrying. There is concern that this could be the start of a second wave of coronavirus disease. Increased morbidity may slow the gradual recovery of the Chinese economy, which will have an impact on the recovery of the world economy.
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