Mitigating criticism of Lukashenko in the Russian media: prophet of the weakening of the regime



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Discredited EU analysts have investigated more than 1.2 thousand articles that appeared on Russian news channels with a large readership.

Disproving the EU calendar / Daily dynamics of elections commemorations and protests in Belarus

Disproving the EU calendar / Daily dynamics of elections commemorations and protests in Belarus

It is striking that during the protests in the streets of Belarus, the Russian media constructed a peculiar narrative. Both Lukashenko, who is allegedly flirting with the West, and the protesters have been criticized.

According to the study, the information for the Russian audience about the protests in Belarus differed widely. According to Algirdas Kazlauskas, Debunk EU chief analyst, most of the Russian media reports on the elections and protests in Belarus were dominated by three different narratives.

First, you can see the violence against protesters and the hotline that condemns the regime. In this sense, the information provided in the Russian media was similar to that found in the western media.

Denying EU / TOP 20 of all messages (both positive and negative for the Belarusian regime) by mention

Discredit EU / TOP 20 of all messages (both positive and negative for the Belarusian regime) with a mention

But here the similarities end. In messages in Russian, the Belarusian leader was criticized for his anti-Russian rhetoric, the arrest and beating of Russian citizens and his flirtation with the West.

There was no lack of criticism from the protesters themselves and the Belarusian opposition. According to A. Kazlauskas, the comparisons with the events in Ukraine in 2014, which allegedly incited civil war, are remarkable. It has also been announced that the Belarusian protesters are controlled by the West.

According to Debunk EU, on the eve of the elections and in the first week after them, the negative assessment of the Russian media on the actions of the Lukashenko regime was more frequent than positive.

EU Dynamics Discredited / Negative Regimes For Belarusian Regime By Contact Hearing

EU Dynamics Discredited / Negative Regimes For Belarusian Regime By Contact Hearing

Lukashenko himself, as well as the Belarusian militia, the Central Election Commission and the country’s state media, have become the main targets of the Russian media.

No strategy was formed

According to A. Kazlauskas, the data collected shows that on the eve of the elections, the Kremlin had not clearly formed a communication strategy, because it did not expect such a scale of protests, so each medium communicated according to its own understanding.

The website also talked about it. meduza.io source from one of Russia’s leading news agencies. According to him, only after a week of protests, Vladimir Putin’s administration finally contacted the main news agencies and told journalists to cover the events in a “balanced” way.

Disassemble the EU / Distribution of messages against the Belarusian regime before the interview with Putin

Dismantle the EU / Distribution of messages against the Belarusian regime before the interview with Putin

The changes in Russian media communication were noticed only after Lukashenko’s call to Putin on August 15, during which the post-election protests in Belarus were discussed.

According to A. Kazlauskas, after this conversation, new topics appeared in the Russian media, for example, reports about NATO military forces near the Belarusian border and security threats from the protests.

“We have noticed that the talks about Western interference in the internal affairs of Belarus have intensified. This message has reached an extraordinary record, more than 290 million. Contacts, audience. The general sentiment has also changed: more content has appeared in favor from Lukashenko and has reached a wider audience, “the analyst explained.

Disassemble the EU / Distribution of messages to the Belarusian regime after talks with Putin

Disassemble the EU / Distribution of messages to the Belarusian regime after talks with Putin

According to Kazlauskas, the emergence of new narratives and the increase in pro-regime content may indicate that the pressure of the protesters undermined Lukashenko’s political and negotiating power, and during the conversation with Putin he had to accept concessions and compromises beneficial to the Russian side. .

An Assessment of Wagner’s Story

An example of the change in tone is the story of Wagner’s mercenaries arrested in Belarus in July. Before Putin’s call, information about the incident in the Russian media was covered with a negative interpretation that the arrest was just a public relations campaign, emphasizing the hostile nature of this action.

“After Lukashenko’s conversation with Putin, it was announced that the mercenaries would be handed over to Russia. The conspiracy theory that they were supposedly not sent to Russia but to Ukraine also escalated. However, the fact that the mercenaries from Wagner were eventually handed over to Russia, despite Ukraine’s requests to extradite them for crimes committed in Donbass, gives rise to speculation that it could have been a joint public relations campaign between Belarus and Russia, “Kazlauskas said.

Disassemble the EU / Top 20 Positive Messages for the Belarusian Regime by Contact Audience

Disassemble the EU / Top 20 Positive Messages for the Belarusian Regime by Contact Audience

The theory could have been developed to show before the elections that Lukashenko is the guarantor of the sovereignty of Belarus and is supposedly willing to defend the country not only from the West but also from Russia.

According to the analyst, although after the Maidan in Ukraine the political self-awareness of the media about the Kremlin has yielded positive results, sometimes the situation is simplified by finding a confrontation between the West and Russia.

“One of the important elements highlighted by experts looking at Russia’s long-term politics is that the Kremlin does not tend to play open cards or bet on one side. In many cases, efforts are made to cooperate with opposing political forces in various formats. Sometimes this tendency to diversify risks can be reflected in the messages spread by the Russian media “, says the expert.

Unmask the EU / Daily Dynamics of Positive Message Targets Relating to the Belarusian Regime

Unmask the EU / Daily Dynamics of Positive Message Targets Relating to the Belarusian Regime

“Despite trends uncovered during the investigation that Lukashenko’s call to Putin may have influenced changes in the predominant messages in the Russian media, further investigation should be conducted to confirm this statement,” Kazlauskas said.

Therefore, according to the expert, expanding the scope of the study and analyzing the further development of the Russian media reports, especially after the first round of live talks between Lukashenko and Putin on aid in Sochi, will provide a much picture. clearest.

To cover the various Russian media outlets (online media, news agencies, TV channels, press and regional Baltic media), the Debunk EU study selected the pages with the highest audience by SimilarWeb.com classification.

Percentage of EU / media by mention

Percentage of EU / media by mention

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Debunk EU is an initiative that brings together representatives of society, the media and the state to combat fake news that confuses and undermines confidence in the country.

The Debunk EU initiative has received attention and funding from Google, the world’s largest search engine, as well as media giants such as The Financial Times and Deutsche Welle.

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