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The fact that the threat of a “rapidly growing conflict” with the Russian-backed separatists will remain at the level of the statements is also confirmed by the visit of Ukrainian President Zelensky to Qatar, when he needs to be at his desk during the moments politicians or hottest politicians. even military tensions.
Frankly, strange behavior. True, Zelensky can say that after speaking on the phone with US President J. Biden, as well as the NATO leader, he has already (temporarily of course) dissuaded Russia from his insidious intentions, forcing them to write it for him. military training.
Yes, a week ago in the Ukrainian media it was announced the assistance of the United States and NATO (unspecified) to Kiev in case of conflict with Moscow. But it’s hard to imagine what the NATO countries would look like with such help, even in theory.
To date, Russia has avoided direct contact with NATO. The most striking example is the Russian fighter shot down by Turkey. The United States is also avoiding: President Trump’s blessed attacks on terrorists in Syria without obstructing Russian military forces.
And how many examples still unpublished in other hotspots.
I firmly believe that the Russia-NATO military confrontation in Ukraine will not happen, because the consequences are too clear: there will be a shift towards strategic armaments. The world will stumble.
This means that a direct military intersection between Moscow and Kiev is also impossible.
So far, Russia is militarily superior. The current situation continues for seven years. And how long will this situation continue, another year, two, ten? That is what politicians, political scientists and experts from both the West and the East are asking.
And here the opinion of the Ukrainian people is not very clear to me. They elected their current head of state on television. “Quarter 95”, directed by V. Zelenskis, laughed a lot and tirelessly, persuasively criticized the previous government, created the illusion that everything would go well soon: there would be peace, guilty sitting behind bars.
Unfortunately, peace is only drifting away and the perpetrators now blame the former accuser in many ways.
Perhaps people’s lives have improved? I don’t have enough data to judge objectively. And here is conflicting information on the fight against COVID-19. There are many organizational measures, the restrictions are strict, but the vaccines are dangerously too small for a large country.
However, the main question: what happens next to Lugansk and Donetsk? Zelensky reiterates that Ukraine’s membership in NATO can solve the problem by initiating a membership action plan. Lithuania also had such a plan on the eve of joining NATO. Would it help Ukraine? Perhaps, but it is unclear how NATO members themselves would react.
A serious obstacle is the Russian-occupied Crimea. If Ukraine had carried out such actions together with Lithuania and other NATO candidates, it probably would have succeeded, because Russia was weak in every respect at the time. I had to read that Putin’s decision to admit Lithuania and other countries into NATO was enough for lunch. There was nothing left but to shake hands.
Now the situation is completely different. Other ways to prevent, from Moscow’s point of view, threats to its security are a threat as NATO expands and moves closer to the Russian border.
Russia’s foreign policy is different. For 20 years, his interest has been to become a competitor to the US military and occupy strategic and military landmarks at least around its borders.
Crimea is necessary not because of historical feelings, but especially because of the beaches. It is necessary for the control of the Black Sea from a military point of view, and everything else after that.
Moscow pursued this for a long time through the various political states of Crimea after the collapse of the Soviet empire, until, using Maidan’s agitation, it managed to do so.
Perhaps many people remember Putin’s words: “What, did you want me to meet the US Marines after leaving Sevastopol?” The idea was developed by the “political scientists” of the Kremlin: that the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement was just a cover for more NATO Plans.
No other, only strategic (slightly different from Crimea), Moscow’s target is on Donetsk and Lugansk. Russia does not need coal or other goods that are abundant in the vast territory.
Putin’s policy is exclusively military strategic, he pays a lot of attention to this area and that is why Western states criticize him harshly personally. And not because of the lack of democracy in Russia. Interestingly, China is criticized as a system, but its leader does not blink black in the democratic media.
The concept of the Kremlin is very simple: only a strong, mainly military state is respected out of fear.
But why doesn’t Moscow take Donetsk and Lugansk, doesn’t even recognize them as independent states? I don’t know the answer. Perhaps the “choice” of society is uncertain?
There is another question: what would be the policy of Kiev in Donetsk and Lugansk in case of political conditions or of any other nature to return there outside the force? Unclear.
And until it’s clear, the frozen situation could continue for a long time.
