Maxim Milta – on the Belarusian stages: mass arrests are already possible this weekend

In his opinion, there is no country closer to Lithuania than Belarus: “In general, I am convinced that there is no country closer to Lithuania than Belarus. And this is not the romantic desire of the GDL times to mythologize the GDL period. Let’s look at it elementally: throughout history, Lithuania and Belarus have had a border for less than 80 years, the rest of the time, since the 12th century, or in their own country or abroad, Lithuania and Belarus have always been together. “

According to M. Milta, who lived in Belarus until 2009, Belarus currently has a very high level of citizen activism and an unending desire for change, but lacks a clear vision of what those changes should be: “This puts the country in a position very precarious, we see a high concentration of people, the potential for protests, but the key candidate program is in the run-up to the next elections. “

– Looking at Viktor Babaryk, Valery Tspekal, Sergei Tichanovsky, how are these people different from the traditional opposition in the country?

– Let’s start with V. Babaryka. Basically, V. Babaryka is often associated with a common Belarusian not only because he has been the director of Belgazprombank for almost two decades.

About 5 years ago, there was an increased interest in culture in Belarus in a broad sense. It would be too bold to say that it was an interest in a purely national narrative, but for example, while living in Belarus, just for a red / white / red Belarusian flag badge on a jacket, the director might invite you for an interview.

In 2015, the visibility of national symbols increased both in advertising and in the media, and very significant projects appeared. The symbols became attractive to the public and with it came a greater focus on the country’s high culture, including painting.

The development of the Art Belarus project started in 2015, and its main sponsor was Belgazprombank. The project aims to give visitors the opportunity to see different historical and cultural exhibits of Belarus from the 9th century to the present day.

First of all, because of the communication, but not only because of it, it was decided to return to Belarus some of the most famous works of Belarusian artists, p. Ex. And. Mark Chagall and Chaim Sutin. Although a small amount of work has been returned, the symbolism is very important in this regard: 15 years or more ago, Belarusian universities could hardly have defended their dissertation on the work of M. Chagall.

Therefore, V. Babaryka is associated in the first place with this plot, because of these works he earned a very good name in the country; there was practically no such patronage in Belarus. This image was strengthened until 2018 – more and more works were returned, new exhibitions were opened and, finally, Belgazprombank created its own gallery in the same location.

Starting in 2019, it can be noted that V. Babaryka began to fight for greater visibility as a banker, economist and businessman. The publication of the interview at the time resonated, as V. Babaryka was one of the first to hold high positions in the sensitive banking sector, daring to provide independent government statistics and criticizing the inefficient economy.

Valerijus Cepkala was much less visible, not unnecessarily called the “godfather” of the country’s IT (information technology) sector. Cepkala was a longtime diplomat who took office immediately after Lukashenko came to power. He was part of Lukashenko’s team, working mainly on foreign policy.

At the intersection of 2006-2007, he was appointed to lead the development of the Belarusian High-Tech Park. Cepkalai had to go through a difficult selection for the position of project manager. Due to the management of the park, it was associated with the IT sector and the success of the park: almost 100,000 people in Minsk are involved in the IT sector.

It is not entirely clear why Cepkala resigned from these positions in 2016, this was not discussed and Cepkala’s own name was known only to the units. Most Belarusians only found out about him when he became a presidential candidate.

Tichanowski is currently being held in solitary confinement and faces 5 to 12 years in prison. Until then he was a virtually unknown man, his Youtube vlog “Country for Life” in a relatively short time, if not conquered Belarus Youtube, became one of the most popular in the country.

His speeches were tough, he was very direct. This problem-solving style even reminds me of young Lukashenko, his first year in politics. Lukashenko gained his visibility as chairman of the anti-corruption commission in the Supreme Soviet of Belarus (1990-1994) and became a prominent face in the country in the context of one of the scandals.

– Can it be said that, in principle, the rise of V. Cepkla, V. Babaryka and others is a kind of sign that the traditional opposition is completely weakened and people do not tend to trust it?

– Absolutely so. Seen from the inside, this was seen much earlier. There was a debate between the traditional parties about the next presidential elections, they decided to make the initial election of a single candidate, but it should be remembered that the idea of ​​a common opposition candidate was never implemented.

The idea of ​​a single candidate sounds theoretically tempting. Perhaps this idea also sounds attractive to Western supporters who want to see a free and democratic Belarus, but the reality is that the Belarusian opposition has sadly discredited itself when it comes to the country’s traditional political parties. This is largely reflected in the current situation in the country.

Yes, there are several traditional opposition candidates among the registered candidates, but great opponents like Zeno Pozniak, one of the main symbols of the independence movement, have been in exile for more than 20 years and their speeches sometimes legitimize Lukashenko rather than criticize him. .

When a person has been running a bank with Russian capital for almost 20 years (V. Bababryka – aut. Past), And that capital is Gazprom, there are very reasonable doubts about possible ties with Moscow. There is a need to express concerns about this and this should be clearly reflected. Most Belarusians do not see any dilemma in this, because their main desire is change: to have a better life, more opportunities.

Cepkala, since he started his career in Lukashenko’s team, can identify with him, but let’s look at other people, Alexander Feduta or Anatoly Lebedko, have worked with Lukashenko, but when he retires from them, they identify with the opposition.

On the other hand, Cepkala’s speeches and his departure to Russia in particular raise very reasonable doubts. His attitude and comments towards Russia are very humble, as are Babaryka’s: in an interview, the latter said that a common currency with Russia is not such a bad idea.

For the last 26 years, close relations with Russia have become the daily routine of the country and the same opportunity: the country has the only open border, the opportunity to go to earn money, the opportunity to develop trade (one You may remember the “Belarusian” shrimp that emerged from the embargo). In the West, Russia is seen from a security point of view, but Belarusians see it a little more pragmatically.

Finally, we must not forget Svetlana Tichanovskaya. Tichanovsky, like the typical vloger, became famous out of nowhere. On the other hand, if we delve into social media, we can see more and more leaks of information showing Tikhanyovsky at events organized by the Russian Orthodox Church in Russia, which speaks favorably of Russia traveling illegally to Crimea, which also casts doubt about him.

At this point, his wife became a candidate because her husband was detained. The very fact that an English teacher, a mother, a woman who has never been in politics and barely planned to do so, suddenly stands on stage in front of tens of thousands of people, is a very atypical and very piecemeal. These elections are special because, after the 2010 elections, we saw a serious civil resistance vacuum – although some acts of resistance were visible, they were on a small scale and almost always took place only in Minsk. In this election, the non-systemic opposition gained completely different levers.

– Virtually the historic elections in Belarus are accompanied by more or less large-scale protests, the largest of which was in 2010, but Lukashenko keeps power in his hands. Right now, commentators and politicians, when they talk about Belarus, often talk about a revolution, where does so much optimism come from?

– It is always good to have inspiration, but the revolution is a bit too bold and unconstructive. We are talking about a country where the people deserve a better life. Yes, many Belarusians were forced to emigrate for work, political or other reasons during the 26 years of Lukashenko’s rule, but despite the fact that Belarus has the highest number of Schengen visas per capita in the world, many people still remain in his country.

The COVID-19 pandemic makes it difficult to get anywhere, but in principle people want to live in their own country, they are very patriotic in the broadest sense of the word. We also see that the accumulated combination of fear factors (economic, social, inability to power) forces people to speak louder.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, it was possible to see a large coalition of people in support of the doctors and this contributed to the initial mobilization by mobilizing Belarusians and the media. Activists who contributed to the support of the Ukrainian troops began to develop solidarity in the fight against COVID-19 activities, and the authorities could not oppose it. People felt that they could come together and unite for a common goal and take responsibility for their country, but there is no more guidance.

Belarusians just want a change and a better life. Clearly, there are people who sincerely believe and want to be members of the EU and NATO, but they are very few, and for many people Belarus is much more acceptable as a neutral state between East and West. And this is just an illusion, because Belarus is not neutral: Russia’s influence in the country is felt everywhere: whether we are talking about the military industry, the banking sector or any other area.

That uncertainty creates a situation where it is unclear what kind of Belarusians the Belarusians themselves want to see. As a result, the country is in a very unstable situation: we see a high concentration of people in the country, the potential for protests, but the program of the main candidates is to hold the next elections as soon as they come to power. There are some dangers in this, as it creates the uncertainty and instability that the Belarusian security apparatus is participating in these processes.

When we talk about the security authorities in Belarus, we must take into account not only the KGB, but above all the militia. These people think unambiguously about their future, and realize that change can lead to processes such as frustration. Although it is not talked about, I think it is being thought about.

I must say with sadness that, in my opinion, what we will see on the afternoon or midnight of August 9 will be thousands of arrests. One of the possible scenarios discussed in the media is the introduction of a state of emergency, but the course of events in the coming week may show whether this can really be expected.

– Turning to the Belarus-Lithuania interface, it often says that the number of Belarusians arriving in Lithuania may increase after the elections. Do you see opportunities for massive processes and should Lithuania prepare for it?

– In general, I am convinced that there is no country closer to Lithuania than Belarus. And this is not the romantic desire of the GDL times to mythologize the GDL period. Let’s look at it in an elementary way: throughout history, Lithuania and Belarus had a border for less than 80 years, the rest of the time, since the 12th century, whether in the country itself or abroad, Lithuania and Belarus have always been together.

And first of all, in this whole context, we are talking about horizontal contacts. Yes, these are different languages, many Belarusians are Orthodox or non-believers, different geopolitical mentalities, but at the horizontal level there are no closer countries, no closer nations.

That is why, in principle, the attitude towards Belarus surprises me, because for many of us who live in Vilnius, a trip to Belarus is a greater challenge than a trip to any other place in the world. Visas pose some hurdles, but the distance from Vilnius to the Belarusian border is almost the same as to Trakai.

In principle, Lithuania is worth thinking about Belarus, not as a donor country that can help us solve demographic problems, but as a country that could provide Lithuania with a lot of talent in different fields. These can be talents from the information technology sector, artists, cultural figures, educators, it does not matter at all, Belarus is a country of 9.5 million people, a large part of whom want to create a better life, seek Better opportunities.

In my opinion, after the elections, a greater number of young Belarusians seeking a better life are likely to look for where that hope can be realized. So they will have a very simple question, for those who want to go to the USA or elsewhere, they will, but for those who do not want to completely lose their connection with Belarus because they have parents, relatives and want to return if necessary, will choose. between Poland and Lithuania.

And now let’s think about the distance to Warsaw and what it is to Vilnius. Linguistically, Polish is very close to Belarusian, so integration would probably be easier, but to the extent that we have schools that teach in Russian, we have opportunities to provide education for young Belarusians in Russian, there are kindergartens where education is in russian. If it is not in the context of the whole of Lithuania, at least in the context of Vilna, I think Belarus can be a source of talent and this opportunity should not be missed.

– How do ordinary Belarusians view Lithuania and how much does the name of Lithuania appear in the life of Belarusians? We often talk about Astrava, about all the other problems, and what do Belarusians in Lithuania talk about?

– It is difficult for me to say that my communication circle in Belarus is very representative, but I would not even hesitate to say that the attitude of Belarusians towards Lithuania is like the closest foreign country, especially Vilnius.

This is especially noticeable in Minsk, perhaps a little less so in Grodno or Brasta. This is a foreign country where you just want to have a good time. Lithuania is not necessarily a country you go to to learn the basics of democratic life, it is not about that at all.

On the other hand, we often relive the arrival of Belarusians in Lithuania, saying that they only come here to buy, although they do not. There is a lot to buy in Belarus, there are many supermarkets in Belarus (laughs).

What I see from my friends, young entrepreneurs: they come to Vilnius to get inspiration for their businesses. They look at what companies do and what they don’t do, what ideas they can come up with, they come here looking for urban interior solutions.

Sometimes there are absurd situations, for example, the South African band Die Antwoord had planned a concert in the largest stadium in Minsk, but the concert was banned due to its low artistic value. Then the band moved the concert to Vilnius and the Belarusians traveled to Lithuania. Of course, there are curious episodes here, but they should also always be used.

Relations with Belarusians through soft power can provide us with many opportunities. Whether it is economic, cultural or demographic opportunities, it already depends on the development of solutions, but Belarus is a country with great potential, as are the Belarusians themselves.

– In your opinion, what are the key factors that most contribute to the formation of the attitude of Lithuanians towards Belarus these days? Are they politicians, bodybuilders or is it a common story?

– It is an informative agenda, everything we see in the news. Often such problems are created by politicians, commented on by political scientists, but unfortunately we rarely see Belarus in the Lithuanian media and in broader debates, not only through the image of the threat Lukashenko, Astrava. It seems to me that this narrows the focus to Belarus.

This is a myopic approach, because we have 500 kilometers of common borders, and that means this and that. The question of how to expand that approach remains open. I believe that the Embassy of the Republic of Lithuania in Belarus is making great efforts to help Belarusians learn more about Lithuania and its culture, but more can be done.

We must first distinguish the political regime of Belarus from the Belarusians themselves; yes, Belarusians live under such regime, but it is not just an ordinary story. Belarusians can give us a lot of opportunities, we don’t need to look at them just by looking at the authoritarian leader of Belarus.