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“It won’t take me long to describe how it hurts us, how it will affect our communication. I think everyone understands it. I also. Here, I would like to briefly justify why this measure should be considered and even approved, “writes M. Stankūnas.
“The NVSC data shows,” he continues, “that currently the greatest spread of the virus is in families.” The publications of the world’s scientists fully corroborate this. Whether studies from China or the US, they all show that households are the main source of the spread of infection. And experts say that the spread of the virus at home is the area that needs special attention. The results of a meta-analysis suggest that the risk of infection is 10 times higher in the domestic environment than among other contacts. This risk is 3 times higher in adults than in children. A similar claim is confirmed by data from other meta-analyzes due to the increased risk of infection at home (in the immediate environment) in the elderly. In general, we can say that close contacts, who do not wear masks or a safe distance, become an important factor in the spread of the virus. highway.
Sigismund Gedvila / 15min photo / Mindaugas Stankūnas
What should be done? Investigations from Italy (which probably suffered the most the first peak the closer the fulfillment of the quarantine conditions and the smaller the quarantine unit (that is, domiciliary or co-quarantine), the lower the number of secondary infections. “
According to M. Stankūnas, the recently published review on the effectiveness of COVID-19 management measures applied in 226 countries showed that the ban on small collection can reduce the value of Rt to -0.4.
“It just came to our attention then. Now, as it is in effect, the prohibition on the recommendation to meet with no more than 2 families up to 10 people. This could (perhaps) be an effective tool, but still a more stringent requirement should have a greater effect At least one other survey study shows that the stay-at-home requirement is a more effective measure than the requirement to reduce the number of meetings to 10 people.
I will give an example to illustrate the last statement. Let’s say I am infected with COVID-19. I don’t feel the symptoms or they are minimal and I don’t pay much attention to them. We celebrate Christmas and invite my parents to this dinner (5 + 2). During St. I go to Christmas with my father-in-law (5 + 2), I also visit the family of my wife’s brother (5 + 5). On the second day of Christmas I visit my brother (5 + 5) and eat without my baptism and all his superfamilies (5 + 5). So, I didn’t break the rules in 48 hours. I am in contact with 19 people who are at high risk of contact and can become infected. Let’s say that at least one family member of each of my contacts got infected. The incubation period for the virus before symptoms appear is 5 to 7 days, but a person can spread the virus for another 1 to 2 days before symptoms appear. And what will happen 5-7 days after St. Christmas? New Years Ogi! All my infected relatives carefully follow the rules of two households, feel no symptoms, agree with their loved ones in the New Year and …
This time, I do not want to give conclusions or summaries. I only wish you and your loved ones peace and health. Let’s stay home, ”wrote M. Stankūnas on the social network.
15 minutes recalls that on Friday, the government led by Ingrida Šimonytė, who received a mandate to act, began its work with a meeting with health experts. This meeting lasted 2.5 hours. A government meeting is scheduled for Sunday. The quarantine measures proposed by the experts are not disclosed.
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