Lukashenko, who has moved the government, still shows that he is the host, but there is no shortage of problems.

On Thursday Roman Golovchenko, who until now was chairman of the State Defense Industry Committee, was named the country’s new prime minister.

Sergei Rum, who has headed the government since the summer of 2018, the president said he would have no blame.

“There are no big claims, but a person wants to do business. I [tai] Congratulations! ”- Pul Pervogo, a Telegram channel close to the President’s press service, quoted Mr. Lukashenko.

TASS Photo / Golovchenko Novel

Ordinary frame change?

The political scientist Laurynas Jonavičius 15 minutes He said that there is a constant turnover of personnel in Belarus, people are transferred from one position to another without important reasons.

“Perhaps changes were necessary to avoid the formation of any group, people would not sit for long. Perhaps it can be said that Lukashenko is trying to centralize control and keep it tighter. <...>

This is a demonstration that you can name and remove everyone you want to be the primary owner, ”said L. Jonavičius.

According to the political scientist, a change in government could be a way to divert attention from the problems to which the public and the media would like to pay more attention.

Large numbers of people aspire to participate in the August presidential elections. Some of the applicants are extremely popular, and several people have signed up to participate in Belarusian cities.

Reuters / Scanpix photo / Belarus waiting in line to sign opposition candidates

“The collection of signatures related to the elections is not exactly what Lukashenko would like it to be. There are candidates who attract enough attention, which they do not like,” said L. Jonavičius.

Belarusian freelance journalist Francis Vyachorka writes that there are those who believe that Prime Minister S. Rum has been fired because of contacts with the candidate, a former Belgazprombank candidate. Handbook Viktor Babariko.

It is reported that S.Rumas will not have any charge in the new office.

SEE ALSO: Belarus before the elections: will the 2010 protest scenario be repeated?

According to L. Jonavičius, it is probably impossible to prove how much S.Rumas is related to V. Babarikas, and how much is a major factor in the government reshuffle.

“Lukashenko is not afraid of any competition, but is concerned that it may require additional, additional resources and efforts unpopularity. Rumors circulate that 30 percent will vote for Lukashenko. voters, and for Tikhanyovsky, Babarik and Cepkalo – about 15-16 percent. voters “, 15 minutes L. Jonavičius said.

Reuters / Scanpix photo / Victor Babariko

What does change mean?

According to F. Viacorka, the formation of a new government can mean a lack of confidence. “Lukashenko pushes chairs when he feels vulnerable. And again, he relies on the army people first,” he writes.

According to the journalist, the new prime minister and his team “can contribute more money and better negotiations.”

“Golovchenko has lived and worked in Russia, he has eastern Russia and the Middle East. The Military Industry Committee is of strategic importance.

It appears that no significant market reforms are expected. The Roman government has been unable to implement any, I doubt it will attempt it at all, “writes F. Viacorka.

Lukashenko himself explained that “after registering the current president as a presidential candidate, we always announce a new composition of the government before the elections.” According to him, this aims to increase voter confidence.

And is the situation in the country different from the one before these elections? According to L. Jonavičius, relations with external actors have changed.

“Russia is taking a strong enough view of what is happening in Belarus.” Perhaps she is still interested in keeping Lukashenko in power. However, it cannot be ruled out that if there are candidates who can compete with at least Lukashenko, Russia will support them, “said the political scientist.

L. Jonavičius drew attention to the poor economic situation in Belarus and A. Lukashenko’s ineffective response to the coronavirus pandemic. According to official data, in Belarus, which has not announced quarantine, more than 45 thousand. infections, 253 deaths associated with COVID-19. Civil society mobilized during the pandemic to provide support to doctors..

“There are many factors that negatively affect the traditional electoral context, which bothers Lukashenko, who is still willing and likely to be re-elected. The question is, how much will it cost? Will we have to resort to violence and repression again?

AFP / Photo by Scanpix / Protest in Belarus

It would not be very useful for him, since it would mean a deterioration of relations with the West. And that would further untie the hands of Russia. His interest, the realization of a union state, is not desirable for Lukashenko. ” 15 minutes the political scientist said, adding that the president is likely to be re-elected.

According to L. Jonavičius, “For a character who was used to seeing that he alone receives support, the collection of signatures and queues to sign for alternative candidates raises questions and a headache.”