Lukashenko no longer has another letter: a powerful partner addresses him

During 26 years of rule, Lukashenko took into account the differences between the West and Russia and used them to strengthen his position in his homeland, reports Radio Free Europe / Radio Freedom.

In recent years, China has become another essential element and an increasingly important economic player in the geopolitical equation of the Belarusian leader. Lukashenko has maneuvered between Brussels, Moscow and Beijing to obtain strategic benefits and secure much-needed loans and investments.

However, the ongoing human rights crisis in Belarus, sparked by Lukashenko’s brutal response to the peaceful protesters who took to the streets after the August presidential elections, which the opposition and international observers have called illegal, has led to The West to impose sanctions on Minsk and weaken its government. economy.

Much less attractive

Politically isolated from Europe and plagued by difficulties in his homeland, the Belarusian president has become a much less attractive partner for Beijing.

“In the past, Belarus could get some money from the West and Russia and then turn to China,” Katia Glod of the Center for European Policy Analysis told Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty. “But the weakening of Chinese support means that Minsk has much less room for maneuver, especially against Russia.”

Despite continued protests and mass arrests in Belarus, which have further undermined Lukashenko’s legitimacy at home and abroad, he is firmly in power.

Opposition leader Sviatlan Cichanouskaya, who lives abroad and is considered by many to be the real winner of the presidential elections, is constantly called upon to resign. Lukashenko said that “there will be no transfer of power” in Belarus.

Meanwhile, China’s interest in supporting the autocrat is waning.

Although Chinese President Xi Jinping was the first foreign leader to congratulate Lukashenko on winning the August elections, Beijing has refrained from providing strong economic or political support to Minsk.

China, which had previously been very active in Belarus, has not offered Minsk a new project or loan since 2019 and appears to want to distance itself from the country’s internal crisis. The change in behavior has undermined Lukashenko’s levers in an effort to secure Moscow’s financial support in the face of mounting geopolitical pressure.

Chinese test site

Over the past decade, China has greatly increased its economic footprint around the world through a truly personal Xi Jinping project, the Lane and Road Initiative. The initiative has helped Beijing strengthen its influence by investing in infrastructure, energy and technology, and the countries of the former Soviet Union have become a testing ground for Chinese policies.

In many respects, Minsk has tried to persuade Beijing, especially in the face of European Union (EU) sanctions and the 21st century. in the first decade, when tensions increased between Minsk and Moscow for control of oil resources.

But it wasn’t until 2014 that Belarus became the center of China’s attention. After Moscow annexed Crimea. In the past, Beijing saw Ukraine as a strategic country for China to open its doors to the EU. Before Russia illegally joined the Ukrainian peninsula, China held $ 10 billion. A valuable US dollar project was built in Crimea to help redistribute cargo flows from Asia to Europe.

Protests in Ukraine in the winter of 2014, culminating in the ouster of President Viktor Yanukovych and the war in eastern Ukraine, forced China to focus more on Belarus, which has been identified as a major country outside the EU. to continue the path. and road initiative.

In recent years, China has financed the construction of new roads, factories and rail connections with Europe, including a sprawling industrial park outside Minsk, which has attracted more than a billion dollars. Investments in USD of 56 foreign companies, including Chinese tech giants Huawei and ZTE.

Also in 2019. Beijing has provided $ 15 billion. Credit line in USD to the Development Bank of the Republic of Belarus and in the same year 500 million were offered. A loan in US dollars after Moscow withdrew a similar offer during intense integration talks.

“China wants stability. For Beijing, stability is always paramount,” Peter Braga, an expert on Belarus-China relations at University College London, told Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

Strategic value?

However, Minsk’s increasing international isolation, especially Lukashenko’s disputes with the West, has limited Belarus’s strategic value vis-à-vis China.

As Braga said, Beijing has always viewed Belarus as a risky investment, and although China has cooperated extensively with the country over the years, it has been cautious in structuring loans and transactions to limit risk.

Beijing made conditional investment offers to Minsk, forcing Belarus to use its own funds to finance some projects and often made “tied” loans in exchange for which Belarusian companies pledged to buy Chinese raw materials and technology. for projects financed by Beijing.

Furthermore, several projects in which China has invested and borrowed remain unfinished and work is behind schedule, making China in no rush to lend more money to Belarus.

As the internal crisis continued, these Chinese fears only intensified and forced Beijing to reassess relations with Minsk.

“China will maintain a good tone, but deep relations have found themselves in a difficult position,” Braga said. “Beijing will resume the investment of amounts similar to the previous ones, only if Minsk restores normal relations with Europe.”

All roads lead to Moscow

Despite Beijing’s doubts, Lukashenko continues to try to attract more Chinese funds to his country.

February 11 Speaking at the Belarusian People’s Congress in Minsk, the president demanded that more Chinese companies and banks start operating in Belarus and praised China’s policies and support.

Belarus, on the other hand, has few opportunities to borrow on the international market and its economy is constrained by sanctions, making the Kremlin, Minsk’s biggest creditor, one of the few remaining sources of financial support.

In September, Putin promised to provide $ 1.5 billion to Belarus. Loan in USD. True, most of this amount will be used to refinance Minsk’s existing debts to Moscow.

Before the meeting in Sochi in February, the Russian newspaper Kommersant quoted government sources as saying that Lukashenko and Putin would discuss 3 billion. The question of a dollar loan, but then the President of Belarus denied this information.

In the past, Russia has made it clear that greater economic support for Belarus depends on Minsk agreeing to greater political integration between the two countries (Minsk has long opposed these plans).

Given that Lukashenko’s external influence is now limited, time will tell what concessions the Kremlin will demand.

“Belarus would like the situation to be different,” explained Glod. “But the current political crisis means that Mr. Lukashenko no longer has a Chinese card.”