Lukashenko has already begun to intimidate people: the government was not prepared for such a course of events.

In his public statements, the Belarusian leader repeatedly made a derogatory comment about those who want to participate in the elections, without any recollection, and implicitly admitted that he had three serious competitors. Viktor Babarik, Svetlana Tichanovskaya and Valery Cepkalo share the first places according to the results of the voting on the popular online platforms in Belarus. Alexander Lukashenko is at best in the middle of the list of 15 people.

Despite the recommendations of the World Health Organization (WHO) to abandon the massive events, Belarus is carrying out an electoral campaign at full capacity. The presidential election is scheduled for August 9. Lukashenko plans to run for the sixth time. 1994 was chosen according to all the requirements for the counting of votes. Since then, the electoral system has been refined, and no one who has not previously held this office has become president of the country.

The spread of the coronavirus pandemic in the country is likely to make it impossible for observers to work during the current election campaign. The election date was announced on May 8, when the number of infections on the last day increased to 933 cases, for a total of 21,101 patients. Now there are almost 45 thousand of them.

However, not only due to the pandemic, the start of the campaign is completely different from the predictions of a month, much less the oldest; and I certainly don’t like what the government was preparing for and what it is used to struggling with.

For the first time in Belarusian history, the signature gathering stage for the nomination of presidential candidates, which will last until June 19, has been marked by various events. For the first time in Belarusian history, people have been queuing for hours and hours in Minsk and in all regions of the country to sign “not for Lukashenko”. The arrests of prominent activists and members of initiative groups who were not previously interested in politics do not help to reduce queues in the least.

The power situation is exacerbated by advertising. Modern technology has deprived it of a monopoly on information. Numerous photos, videos, social media comments, and videos from signature collection sites are rapidly gaining popularity. Furthermore, all this happens without taking into account the Belarusian state media, which are powerless in a situation where everyone can use the Internet and anyone with a phone in hand can become a blogger.

Media companies around the world publish long and endless photos with the inscription “protests in Belarus”, and foreign television channels are filming the stories.

In response to these events, Belarusian authorities began intimidating the electorate for the first time more than two months before the vote. In the past, such actions were taken much later.

On Monday June 1, the Belarusian leader warned that there would be no Maidan in the country and stated that “gang groups and gangs with all hair could not be allowed to take off the sleeves of the country.” People, God forbid, will continue to think that the Gestapo has returned, that the war has begun … I already told the military: I will fight only against them if necessary. On the other hand, we have enough people with shoulders who can defend their country. “

Lukashenko asked the live KGB leader Valery Vakulchik to maintain order.

March 29 Lukashenko has publicly downplayed the presidential candidates. He did not mention their first and last names, but he was referring to those people who have a real chance of obtaining a good number of votes in a fair election.

This course of events and circumstances of the live arrest of Sergei Tichanovsky, the leader of the initiative group Tihanovskaya, only increased the number of those who wanted to sign “not for Lukashenko”.

Lukashenko’s unexpected competitors

For the first time in Belarusian history, the traditionally anti-presidential opposition, which has been devastated by neutralization methods, including agitation and propaganda and the organization of de facto uncontrolled elections, has brought up unexpected candidates for the presidential campaign.

None of them expressed a desire to run for president before the Central Election Commission announced the election date, but it was these individuals of 15 candidates who were nominated as the first in the ranking.

According to surveys conducted on many popular Belarusian internet platforms, mainly on social media and chat sites, Babarik, a well-known patron of the country and leader of one of the largest Belarusian banks for the past 20 years, is in first place ( often by a large majority).

His record (against Lukashenko’s opponent) 10,000. He gathered a popular initiative group in a matter of days, writing a slogan on social media. Belarusians probably did not forget that thanks to the support of Belgazprombank, managed by Babarik, many cultural values ​​returned to Belarus, exhibitions and festivals were organized, and crowdfunding platforms were established, which helped to implement many initiatives offered by representatives of civil society and creative intelligence.

It is on these platforms that the BYCOVID-19 voluntary campaign, which started after the coronavirus reached Belarus, is still running. The campaign raises funds to help doctors.

By voluntarily accepting offers from non-state media companies for interviews, Babariko has repeatedly demonstrated that he can offer an effective program of change. It is true that it is not possible to talk about that until you are registered as a presidential candidate. This is another feature of the elections in Belarus, which further reduces the already low probability of a transparent process.

Mr. Babariko’s team suggested that all Belarusian citizens, including presidential candidates and electoral organizers, sign the Declaration on Fair Elections, available at babariko.by/declaration. Also, June 1. Babariko filed a petition with the Central Election Commission alleging violations of the law, including a translation for the current president to sign, name-calling of Lukashenko’s candidates and illegal actions against members of the candidate’s initiative groups.

The text of the appeal with detailed facts is published here. Just half a year ago, he was a little-known YouTube blogger and producer, and today his videos are watched by thousands of people.

Sergei was supposed to stand for election, but the day the Central Election Commission registered the initiative groups, he was under administrative arrest for recognizing his video broadcast on the streets in the presence of local residents as a mass unauthorized event.

Ms. Tichanovskaya submitted all the documents to the Central Election Commission under a general mandate, but the commission refused to register her husband. The woman then registered the initiative group in her own name, and Sergei became the leader of the group.

Tichanovsky was released before the signature collection began, but on May 29. He was detained at a signature collection site in Grodno. The reason and timing of the arrest seemed provocative, everything was seen directly by thousands of people. Expressing support, Tihanovskaya was demonstratively signed by other activists, and voters had an additional excuse to stand in line at the station queue at the signature collection sites.

The largest queues extended to the locations to collect signatures for S. Tichanovskaya. It is true that many people say that he signs not specifically for Svetlana, but “against Lukashenko”. In many interviews, Tichanovsky explains that the main task is to prevent Lukashenko from participating in the elections.

According to the man, because of his popularity, he should be grateful to people who have not been allowed to speak for a long time. He became their spokesperson. Tichanovsky created the YouTube channel “Strana dlia žizni” (Country of Life) to talk about trade issues, but realized that all issues were based on politics.

Now the Belarusian authorities are writing a political biography of S. Tikhanyovsky. Human rights defenders have already recognized him as a political prisoner.

In third place was V. Cepkalo, a graduate of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, a professional diplomat with experience in the presidential administration, a former ambassador of Belarus to the United States, and initiator of the establishment of a High-Tech Park in Belarus.

He managed to present a proposal to control the counting of votes when observers do not have access to the tables where the ballots are removed from the ballot box. The essence of the proposal is as follows: the voter receives an envelope with ballots of different colors (each candidate is assigned a specific color).

The voter leaves the ballot of the desired color in the envelope and places the envelope in the ballot box. When the ballot boxes are opened and the envelopes are opened, observers will immediately see what the color of the ballots is at the counting commission tables. If the Central Election Commission says such an idea will be costly, Belarusians will raise the necessary amount.

Who are queuing at the collection points in Minsk?

Many of them are just for legitimate protests. Some say that “such queues are already a revolution, because many people gathered here have never been interested in politics.”

“Make it hot, but not him [Lukašenka]”
“I feel like a voter cheated four times.”
“I am not choosing Lukashenko, I am right.”
“I’m tired of lying on the TV screen. The image has long been unrealistic.”
“It just came to our notice then [Lukašenka]”
“Power must be divided in the country.”
“I don’t know people who vote for Lukashenko.” I don’t understand how he gets so many votes. I do not think so.”
“Alexander Grigoryevich dear, make us happy, come out please, and let everything be fine for you.”
“The government is only afraid of people taking to the streets. The militia and the courts are working for Lukashenko. Everyone already hates the entire administration. Nothing has changed, nothing good. Sitting on the sofa is not the way out. It is not permitted.”

This is how people of all ages and social groups speak: successful, with a living wage and complaining about a poor existence. Representatives of the previous generation explain that they came to sign on behalf of the children and grandchildren. Young people say it hurts for parents, grandmothers and grandparents.