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This survey (smokers survey) was conducted in August-September 2019 (the total duration of the project is approximately two years). The research team consisted of 8 researchers and, at certain stages, the team expanded: a total of about 20 people worked on data collection. Until then, such research on unaccounted for tobacco, which would be funded by independent sources, had not been carried out in Lithuania.
By comparison, in 2019, indicators from an industry-commissioned (commercial) study showed the share of unaccounted for cigarettes was around 20 percent. However, it was studied only in metropolitan areas. The LSMU study showed that participation can be much higher, exceeding 30%.
However, the market share of unaccounted tobacco products can only be estimated. However, according to the director of the Health Research Institute of the School of Public Health of the School of Public Health of LSMU and the project director himself, associate professor Dr. Mindaugas Štelemėkas, should continue.
“Such evaluations are methodologically complex, the amount of official and reliable data available is very limited, and many challenges arise when trying to distinguish between legal and illegal products. We hope that our pilot study will encourage further development of this topic and that we can conduct regular research. regardless of funding from the tobacco industry, ”said Assoc. Dr. M.Štelemėkas.
Smokers interviewed and empty packages collected
The study, which evaluated unaccounted tobacco, consisted of two main parts: a survey of smokers (at home, showing researchers which cigarettes they smoke) and a survey of empty packages of collected tobacco products.
A total of 1,050 smokers aged 18 years and over were interviewed. According to Dr. Vaida Liutkutė-Gumarov, a researcher at the Institute for Health Research at the LSMU School of Public Health, the downside of the survey is that not all respondents spoke willingly about smoked cigarettes. About a third of them agreed to show the packages. Those who had legal and illegal cigarette packs at home could deliberately choose to show the interviewer only legal cigarettes.
The study revealed that 75.8 percent. respondents only smoke regular cigarettes. There were more men than women. Almost one-fifth smoked both regular and electronic and hot tobacco cigarettes.
Almost twice as many women as men reported smoking only e-cigarettes and / or only heated tobacco products. These results confirm the trend seen in other countries that alternative smoking cessation products are rapidly gaining popularity and are smoked more often alongside regular cigarettes. It is true that the presentation of the study results put more emphasis on regular cigarettes.
The study revealed that 75.8 percent. respondents only smoke regular cigarettes.
The proportion of unaccounted for illicit cigarettes smoked was calculated by estimating the number of all cigarettes smoked per day. It was established that during 2019, 10.7 percent. It is possible that the cigarettes smoked in Lithuania were illegal.
The study revealed the portrait of a Lithuanian smoker of illegal products (it is similar in foreign countries): residents over 45 years of age regularly buy illegal tobacco products, with lower educational level, lower income in urban and rural areas, and mostly Illegal older men smoke cigarettes. Almost twice as many men as women reported buying common tobacco products on a regular basis.
During the survey, respondents were asked to show the last pack of cigarettes smoked. If the person did not want to, they were asked to at least describe the packaging. Only about 35 percent. respondents agreed to show the package. 473 packages were collected to obtain information in this way.
The cigarette pack shown was considered illegal if it met at least one of four criteria: incorrect warnings about the harm of smoking, incorrect stamps, price: 70 percent. less than the average of the cheapest cigarettes sold legally in Lithuania or an illegally bought pack.
According to the survey of the last pack of cigarettes bought, a tenth – 9.7 percent of smokers smoked illegal cigarettes, and only slightly more than 1 percent. the packages were bought in duty-free shops or legally bought in other countries. About 5 percent. bought cigarettes only from illegal sources – people in the market or illegal products were delivered to buyers at home.
The most popular way to buy illegal cigarettes is directly from individuals at certain “points”, gathered at a prearranged location. More than half of those surveyed said they did not know where to buy illegal tobacco products. A quarter don’t know, but could easily find out, and a fifth of respondents said they knew of specific locations or vendors.
More than half of those who only smoke cigarettes indicated that it is now more difficult to buy illegal cigarettes than a year ago. However, not many people think that these products are now even easier to buy.
The study showed that Lithuania is quite tolerant of the phenomenon of illicit cigarette smoking. About 38 percent. respondents view this negatively, but understand why people buy illegal cigarettes.
Most youth, women, and the metropolitan population had a categorically negative view of illegal tobacco products.
Around 6,500 empty packages collected
According to M. Štelemėkas, the study required empty packages of tobacco products (the second part of the study) collected in 30 cities and 35 campuses (focused not only on large cities). They are collected not only from garbage containers, but also thrown into the environment. The objective was to represent the whole of Lithuania geographically: a random sample of regions, cities and towns was created. The most timely study was to be conducted in the fall and early spring.
“Including smaller cities in the survey poses more challenges, as smaller cities are more organized, relatively fewer cigarette packs were found in them than in large cities”, M. Štelemėkas revealed a positive trend not directly related with the survey.
The collectors traveled 1,074 kilometers while collecting packages. A total of 6,517 packs were collected (of which around 5,700 empty regular cigarette packs). After walking one kilometer, the researchers had around 5 packages in their hands. This is a lower result than initially expected.
LSMU cigarette / photo packs were studied in the LSMU study
When collecting empty cigarette packs, it was found that up to 31.5 percent. The packages found in 2006 were neither accounted for nor destined for the Lithuanian market. Most of them were found in Panevėžys and Vilnius counties, the least in Tauragė, Telšiai and Klaipėda counties. More missing packages were found in Lithuanian border municipalities. The percentage of those cigarettes unaccounted for was significantly higher in Belarusian border cities.
Chesterfield, Winston and Marlboro brand packages were the most found. However, for example, most of the 800 Chesterfield packages found included products with Lithuanian stamps.
The vast majority (81.8%) of Premier, Minsk, Fest and NZ cigarettes produced at the Neman Grodno tobacco factory were not counted.
Photo from the Customs Criminal Service / Cigarettes seized
Belarusian stamps accounted for most of the collected package stamps. About 11 percent. the packages collected were such that it was difficult or impossible to identify the stamps.
Researchers in collaboration with foreign experts are further analyzing the data from the investigations of empty cigarette packs. An attempt is made to evaluate the possible impact of the survey on the results of the study on the part of tourists, shopping in duty-free stores, buying in other countries where tobacco products are cheaper.
Therefore, the prevalence of illegal cigarette use in Lithuania in 2019 could reach at least 9.7 percent. A study of empty packages showed 31.5 percent. The cigarette packages found were not accounted for, that is, they were intended for the non-Lithuanian market.
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