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He also recognized that the subsequent adoption of some decisions may have been influenced by the Seimas elections, but this was not the only reason. Residents were expected to follow the recommendations.
In an interview with BNS, he stated that a limited number of participants were consistently offered to events, but that final decisions were also influenced by socioeconomic considerations.
“The most important measure that could have been considered a little earlier was the restriction of meetings. Because we had quite strictly limited events during the first quarantine and after that, those requirements were published. We have repeatedly suggested that events and meetings should limit yourself, ”said L. Ašoklienė.
Loreta Ašoklienė
“Could anything have been done before? Well, of course, we also had such an extraordinary situation: elections, which may have had little effect on subsequent decision-making. However, it would be incorrect to say unequivocally that this is the reason ”, added the specialist.
According to the chief epidemiologist, the quarantine is expected to slow the spread of the coronavirus for the next three weeks.
If the situation does not improve, according to L. Ašoklienė, enforcement of the measures should be strengthened.
– In Lithuania, more and more new cases of coronavirus are detected every day. In your opinion, what is the current situation of the spread of the virus in Lithuania?
– The current epidemiological situation of COVID-19 in Lithuania is unfavorable and quite complicated. The sharp increase in morbidity in recent weeks has caused an increase in hospitalizations and tension in the health sector, especially due to the occupation of beds by covid. Deaths are also recorded, showing the complexity of the situation itself. Of course, the biggest concern is that we monitor disease outbreaks that spread in nursing and care, in personal health care facilities, because that’s where the people most at risk are.
– What could have caused such a sudden jump in the cases?
– Apparently, such an increase was expected, because according to the experience of other countries, we see that the situation is deteriorating not only in Lithuania, but also in other countries of the European Union.
Well that relaxation period allowed the virus to build up in the summer, it was nowhere to be found. Failure to comply with restrictive measures, apparently the lack of infection control, as well as the behavior of individuals themselves, has meant that today we have a widespread virus and an unfavorable situation.
– Saying that such a spread could be expected. Wasn’t it possible then to introduce stricter measures earlier, in anticipation of a spread so fast that it cannot be seen?
– This should be treated with caution, as people have always been told how to behave, preventive measures have not disappeared, safety distance, hand hygiene, coughing, etiquette when sneezing, use of equipment for Personal protection have been repeatedly important, of course, contact avoidance.
However, the same most important measure that could have been considered a little earlier was the restriction of meetings. Because we had pretty strictly limited events during the first quarantine and after that those requirements were posted. We have repeatedly suggested that events and meetings should be limited.
– Do you see more measures that could have been taken in the past to prevent the spread of the virus?
– I think many measures have been applied so far. There was constant repetition, reminding people what and how to go on, how to behave. Are these austerity measures timely now? Hard to say. We wanted to hope that we would not need the national quarantine at all and that we could handle the situation, but we see that it is getting worse and that action must be taken.
That situation in Lithuania has been good enough for a long time. And now, looking at the situation in Europe, we have lower morbidity rates than in ten or eleven countries. The only concern is this upward trend and it is desirable to stabilize it and achieve a reduction in the number of diseases.
In my opinion, the quarantine measures that have been adopted for events, for catering establishments, for educational establishments, are really very important and significant. As a last resort, identified by the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, a home-based targeting strategy is recommended, and we seem to be moving in that direction: we encourage people to communicate as little as possible, the Fewer meetings possible to control spread.
Could something have been done before? Well, of course, we also had such an extraordinary situation: elections, which may have had some effect on subsequent decision-making. However, it would be wrong to say unequivocally that this is the reason.
– Until recently there was only talk of local quarantines in municipalities, and soon we will have a national one. Why was it decided not to apply the measures locally?
– As for the decision itself, it is made by the Government. I don’t want to comment too much on this, but it probably makes sense that when we have more than half of the municipalities in the red zone where quarantine is needed, it is better to have the same rules for the whole country.
– Do you think that the quarantine itself is timely at the national level? Is there no delay in this measure? Perhaps applying it before we could have avoided the morbidity that we have now?
– It was hoped that the situation could be handled with local quarantines, which is where it started. I wanted to hope that this virus did not spread so fast.
– Looking ahead, is there anything else that can be done if the quarantine doesn’t work?
– First of all, with the quarantine measures do not expect something too fast, it will certainly take a few weeks.
I am convinced that these measures will work if they are followed. If there is non-compliance, I think there should be tighter controls on compliance. There are also stricter restrictions on communication, such as stricter restrictions on non-essential services. I have already mentioned the recommendation of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control to follow a home-based targeting strategy, and this could go further.
However, these are extreme measures and I am inclined to believe that the existing measures will take effect in three weeks, after all they cannot close people for months.
The experience of other countries shows that by limiting events, meetings, the number of contacts, this situation improves. But it is not just the decisions that depend, but also the people on how they will meet those requirements.
– Minit Fate at Home strategy, does this mean that a curfew could be introduced?
– Other countries have introduced it, but I doubt it is an acceptable solution in Lithuania. The Government and the Seimas should decide on these matters here.
– President Gitanas Nausėda initiated the establishment of the Council of Health Experts. How do you rate an initiative of this type?
– This is a political question, I don’t know if I should answer it. I think mobilizing the experts, as many opinions as possible, as much advice as possible, is always good.
– And with what experts does the ministry consult?
– There is a government expert working group with various experts. Some of them also participate in the council convened by the president. Any solution, an innovation, first of all, travels to a group of scientific experts. It also provides suggestions for innovation, for testing volumes. Well, this is the main advisory group that is being consulted.
– Do these experts recommend publishing a national quarantine?
– It is a joint decision of the Government, taking into account the different proposals and the unfavorable situation.
– And what recommendations did you offer, as the main epidemiologist in the country?
– There are no proposals that are suitable for everyone, so it probably cannot be that I personally offer some means. The measures are proposed jointly, taking into account all opinions, taking into account social or economic aspects. The problem sometimes is probably that our opinion as epidemiologists tends to be tougher.
– But are there any evaluations, opinions that you have expressed yourself?
– One of the last is the restriction of sporting events and events without spectators. The Ministry of Health made such a proposal to the Government that sporting events be held without spectators, but other solutions were found after evaluating other proposals. We have said for a long time that meetings and events should be more restricted.
– When did you start talking about it?
– Regarding events, we have always been of the opinion that they should be limited. Those event volumes have always been important in reducing mass. It was our constant position, I can’t even name when it could have been.
The other thing when we came out of quarantine, I also wanted the controls to be tighter and the number of people to be limited. There was such disagreement on our epidemiological side that they could not be published in their entirety.
In my opinion, the number of participants should have kept at least the minimum requirements.
– What are the ministry’s predictions about the spread of the virus?
– At least once a month, the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control publishes its forecasts for each country. This is one of the sources. Another source is that we have predictions and simulations provided by scientists.
– Who are these scientists?
– Looking at at least the latest simulations, I saw the information provided by the Lithuanian University of Health Sciences. During the first quarantine, we had models provided by researchers from Vilnius University.
– What are your predictions?
– According to the optimistic scenario, we would reach the peak of the spread of the disease at 1.2 thousand. new diseases, and according to pessimists, 2,000. new cases, but it will all depend on how people comply with quarantine restrictions. Also, it is important to note that this is a simulation that does not always come true.
– In the past, you have commented quite often about the situation of the spread of the virus in the country, but now we do not see it so often, why?
– It’s probably not a question for me. I always try to comment if necessary. I think that the presentation of the situation itself is seen very widely in the Ministry of Health. There probably won’t be much of a difference in who will present it, and more importantly, it will be presented to the public.
The Minister has the most up-to-date and intersectoral information. The information that could be presented on my part is presented to the Minister and he reviews all the situations, decisions, I think it is correct.
– Thanks for the conversation.
***
The government decided on Wednesday to introduce quarantine in Lithuania for three weeks starting on Saturday to stop the spread of the coronavirus.
By government decree, the quarantine will take effect on November 7 and will run until November 28 inclusive.
A total of 18 thousand COVID-19 were detected in Lithuania. 92 people, 12 thousand. 765 – still ill, 5082 – recovered.
A total of 182 people have died since COVID-19. Another 63 people died from other causes.
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