Lithuania was also saved from this scenario by the peculiarities of its character: countries that have survived the royal hell will feel the consequences for a long time.

These results have been driven by a complex set of reasons, ranging from the different moment of the governments’ responses to the threat of the direct or indirect impact of the internal political, social and economic situation in the countries on national strategies. to combat the spread of the virus.

These conclusions are formulated in the analysis of the strategies and measures of the countries of the European Union against the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) carried out by specialists from the Research Division of the Department of Information and Communication of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Seimas . The analysis was carried out at the request of Laurynas Kasčiūnas, a member of the Christian Democratic Party faction of the National Union-Lithuania.

Lithuanian University of Health Sciences (LSMU) prof. skilled. Dr. Infectious disease Alvydas Laiškonis told Delfi that the fact that we were quarantined very early helped Lithuania avoid the worst case scenario.

“The beginning of the quarantine was very painful because personal protective equipment was missing and we did not know what to do,” recalled A. Laiškonis.

The professor also drew attention to another, in his opinion, an important factor that distinguishes us from the Italians, Spanish, French: the human mentality.

“It just came to our attention then. It seems to me that this is inherited from antiquity, people, especially the elderly, have adopted the new rules with great discipline. There is a completely different culture in the south. The French say:” There are three things that excite us a lot: cheese and wine, if we don’t allow ourselves to attack. Here are our national characteristics. ” In France, Italy and Spain, even the slightest restriction was taken very painfully by the people, “said A. Laiškonis, known as a French speaker, and maintains close contacts with colleagues in France.

The professor agreed that in Lithuania it was an exaggeration in some places when some cafes put up signs that “people at risk are not allowed.”

“I think there was too much, it affected people a lot psychologically. Now, a little, everything will be fine, let’s see how things go next. We are waiting for the epidemiological investigation, maybe someone will see the perspective, “argued A. Laiškonis.

I would advise organizing this year for future trips.

At the same time, the professor noted that the situation regarding the coronavirus remains highly uncertain.

“South Korea was given to us as an example of how things went. And suddenly it flowed … Predicting is very difficult. The summer season is approaching, we do not know what the situation will be in Western Europe in two or three months.

I would suggest to people this year to choose the strategy “let’s get to know Lithuania” or neighboring countries, not to choose very long trips, from which it can be very difficult to return, “said A. Laiškonis.

Spanish authorities have been criticized for the slow response

The material prepared by the analysts of the Seimas Chancellery provides a detailed description of the situation and the measures taken in each of the three countries. Experts say that Spain is one of the countries most affected by the coronavirus (as of May 20, 2020, with around 230,000 infections, or more than 4,900 infections per 1 million inhabitants. It is the fifth largest in the world) . The spread of the virus in the Canary Islands, which started in late January, spread dramatically across the country in February and early March.

“In view of the drastic spread of the virus, the Spanish government, since March 15, declared an extremely strict quarantine. Strict requirements have been established for residents not to leave their homes under any circumstances other than buying food, medicine or receiving necessary medical care. During the quarantine, all non-essential goods stores and public catering establishments were closed. During the peak period of quarantine, Spain was one of those countries that had completely closed its borders and allowed only citizens Spaniards will return to the country ”, says the analysis.

It has also been announced that the Government will acquire the right to take over private medical facilities under its jurisdiction if the case arises. Almost in the same period, March 17. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has announced that the state is allocating a record amount of 200 billion funds to combat the coronavirus. EUR. The package of support for society and companies included measures such as deferment of the payment of loans to individuals, suspension of payment of business taxes (benefits, social security for employees, etc.), state guarantees, the document indicates.

Analysts noted that despite the high number of infections and deaths from the virus, some quarantine requirements have been relaxed in the country since mid-April as infection rates begin to decline. Some nonessential companies may resume operations (such as the construction sector). Families with children can also go for a walk. From May 11. A quarantine exit plan has been launched in the country. At the moment, some shops, outdoor cafes, and places of worship may operate (they are only allowed to operate at an adequate distance between people).

“Although technically Spain was not the country directly bordering Italy, from which the virus could have spread dramatically, the country nevertheless experienced a major pandemic.” Several analysts criticize the position of the Spanish authorities in the face of the pandemic. The biggest mistakes that kept the pandemic from managing successfully are slow response and preventing spread at an early stage. All subsequent government actions can already be seen as a fight against the consequences of a pandemic. The fragile state health system, still felt in 2008, also contributed to the troubled situation. The effects of the economic crisis. Harmonizing the health care systems of the 17 autonomous regions to effectively combat the pandemic across the country has also become a challenge, “the document reads.

Italians initially mistaken the coronavirus for the flu.

Italy is also one of the countries most affected by COVID-19 (as of May 20, 2020, there were more than 226,000 cases, or more than 3,700 cases per million inhabitants. It is the sixth largest in the world).

Analysts noted that with the rapid spread of the virus in northern Italy and its continued spread across the country, starting March 8. Quarantine measures have been introduced in some regions of the country (mainly in the north of the country). Just two days after this decision, on March 10. Quarantine has been announced across the country.

Quarantine conditions, as in the case of Spain, were quite strict. Residents were prohibited from leaving their homes, except for necessary trips to work, supermarkets, pharmacies, or emergency medical facilities. Due to extremely strict quarantine conditions, the first signs of control of the virus outbreak began to appear in early April and April 20. For the first time, there was a drop in active cases, ”says the analysis.

The specialists of the Seimas Chancellery, when analyzing the actions of the Italian Government, pointed out that to manage the pandemic, not only commercial activities, education and other public services were suspended, but also trains and other public transport in the most affected by the pandemic.

According to the government-approved pandemic program, the country’s territory was divided into three zones. The red zone covered the areas most affected by the virus, subject to universal quarantine and restrictions on population movement. In the Yellow Zone, population movement was not as severely restricted, but educational and cultural institutions were closed. The rest of the country focused on a wide range of preventive measures (public transport, disinfection of public spaces, etc.). However, as the spread of the virus has not slowed, measures have tightened across the country, with schools closing and a ban on sporting events.

“The Italian government has allocated € 200 billion through various measures to the industrial regions of northern Italy most affected by the pandemic and to the viability of the country’s economy as a whole. – Read in the document.

Analysts at the Seimas Chancellery noted that in late April, quarantine measures were gradually relaxed. Although movement at the national level was still prohibited, the movement of people within the regions was allowed to resume.

“There are several reasons for Italy’s biggest failure to control the pandemic.” It is estimated that a large proportion of people infected in the early stages of the virus’s spread were misidentified when they were diagnosed with seasonal influenza.

As a result, it has been hypothesized that hospitals treating these influenza patients have become a focal point for the spread of the coronavirus in reality. Therefore, in the initial stage of a pandemic, the virus spread completely out of control. The fact that Italy has one of the oldest populations in the world statistically has also contributed to the high impact of the virus and the death rate, which means that a large part of the country’s population is at risk, ”says the analysis.

France lost a critical moment

France is one of the countries badly affected by COVID-19. 2020 May 20 According to the data, more than 140 thousand. cases of infection, or more than 2,000. 1 million infections population. This is the ninth place in the world.

“Although the spread of the virus in the country started in late January, France has taken tougher measures since March 17. Announcing the universal quarantine, which was originally supposed to last 15 days, but, as in many other EU countries, subsequently extended several times.The main quarantine measures include the closure of non-essential services and points of sale, the closure of educational and cultural establishments, the prohibition of religious rites (excluding funerals for up to 20 people), restrictions on movement of people other than travel necessary to work, pharmacy, grocery store or medical institution, “the analysis read.

Analysts at the Seimas chancellery noted that in France, severe restrictions on the movement of people and strict police measures against residents who violate the quarantine regime sparked several waves of protests in the Paris suburbs and sparked clashes between protesters and the police.

“As of May 11. The relaxation of quarantine measures has begun in the country. In the implementation of quarantine mitigation measures, the country’s territory is divided into the so-called” green “and” red “areas. Paris, along with three other provinces, is included in the red zone, where quarantine measures remain stricter than in other provinces of the country (restrictions on the activities of the points of sale remain in the red zones, prohibitions on meeting in parks) “, read the analysis.

Investigating the situation, Seimas specialists pointed out that in the context of the relaxation of the quarantine in France on May 10. Certain amendments to the State of Emergency Law have been adopted. Under them, new powers have been granted to the country’s authorities to manage the threats posed by the relaxation of the quarantine.

In accordance with the established procedure, people who enter the country from the designated territories (the Ministry of Health determines the list of territories) must remain in quarantine for 14 days. The law also approves an information system for the spread of the virus, which will facilitate the collection and storage of information about infected people.

On the basis of this legal act, the jurisdiction of the country’s Prime Minister is also expanded, giving him powers when it is necessary to regulate (restrict) the movement of people and vehicles in certain territories, if necessary, to close certain public places.

“Comparing COVID-19 death rates in France and Germany (as countries with similar size and population composition), the death rate from the virus was much higher in France. The main reason for this is government indecision and the delay in restricting people’s social contacts. In comparison, Germany has carried out particularly extensive tests and other preventive measures since the early days of the pandemic.

Furthermore, in accordance with the National Plan for the Management of the Pandemic, Germany did everything possible to isolate the virus’s propagation chains until they were relatively short. France took action late, so the critical moment was missed, ”the analysis said.

The economic situation there is much worse than in the northern countries.

Sigismund Mauricas, chief economist at Luminor Bank, stated that the economic situation in these countries is significantly worse than in the North.

Looking at the retail trade data for April, we can see that in Scandinavia the drop was very insignificant: up to 5%, in the Baltic countries, say in Latvia, the drop was around 10%, in Lithuania 11%. (Due to the fact that we had slightly stricter quarantine conditions, but in May we already see that the recovery is significant enough. We will definitely return to single-digit drop rates.) And let’s say in Spain the drop is 33 percent, and the May figures are likely to be double digits. Therefore, the separation between North and South will increase very strongly “, – stated Ž. Mauricas

According to the economist, this was due to several reasons. The first was that those countries were the first to be affected by the coronavirus pandemic, which caused much greater fear, so people, even those who could spend the money, no longer wanted to, tightened their belts and they locked up in their houses.

The second reason mentioned by Ž. Mauritius, – significantly stricter quarantine conditions. This meant that part of the population could not spend the money.

The third very important thing, according to the economist, is the economic structure. These countries are much more dependent on activities that require closer social contact: the tourism, restaurant, hotel and other leisure services sectors are much more developed there.

“It so happened that they were not very lucky, because these sectors were the most affected by this crisis.
If we had southern Europe in a much bigger recession in 2009-2010, especially in 2012. (when there was a eurozone debt crisis. Recall the history of Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy), then these countries were the ones that more suffered from high indebtedness and inefficient management of public finances, corruption. Now they have suffered for other reasons. In this case, they are not to blame, which raises the issue of solidarity much larger, “said Ž. Mauricas

The economist predicted the 750 billion proposal. The EU recovery fund will direct most of its money to southern European countries.

“Their scale is not so large, because a similar amount in their pockets, cards, is transported each year by the Nordics on vacation to the countries of southern Europe. It is more important for those countries that the tourist season opens and that the Nordic people move again to the countries of southern Europe, by the sea, to restaurants, to take an interest in culture, “said Ž. Mauricas

No quick changes expected

The economist, pointing to the latest indicator of consumer confidence (May), notes that the situation is unlikely to change soon. The gap can remain the same or even widen.

“For example, Lithuanian and Estonian consumer confidence is the fourth and fifth best in the entire European Union. The best situation is in Sweden, Denmark, then the Czech Republic jumps to third place (they faced the virus very early), then Lithuania, Estonia, then a number of Central and Eastern European countries (Germany is very close), and Southern European countries are completely behind.

This means that although quarantine conditions are relaxed, consumers are frightened by their financial situation and as a result will not be in a hurry to open their wallets. Unless they can be saved by speedy recovery of tourism flows or other stimulus measures to get consumers back on the market.

If not, we will have a paradox when the Scandinavian countries can face 5%. In the fall, the Baltic countries will be close to Scandinavia, around 8%, and in southern European countries it wouldn’t surprise me if they were close to 20%. That difference can grow enormously over the years, ”Ž said. Mauricas

According to the economist, this represents a serious threat to the unity of the EU.

“Therefore, it is very important that the fund be approved to provide assistance. Perhaps it is not so much the fund as the normalization of the situation itself is important. It would be the duty of the richest Nordics to travel to the countries on vacation from southern Europe to support them. Greece, for example, has coped well with the pandemic but is highly dependent on tourism. It is still very difficult for Croatia, “Ž said. Mauricas

It will also affect Lithuanians.

When asked about the impact that the difficult situation in southern European countries will have on Lithuanians, the economist first noted that exports to those countries will drop significantly.

“Let’s say that if we talk about sectors as traditional as food exports, Lithuania is one of the largest cheese exporters to Italy. Most of those cheeses are not consumed in supermarkets (as is usual in our country) but in the sector of restoration.

If there are no tourists, and local calf belts, you will feel. Because restaurants are the first thing you give up if you have to save. It is a precious pleasure. Maybe you ride a bike to go to nature, but you don’t go to a restaurant, where you can spend 50 euros and more in Italy, if you eat well, “said Ž. Mauricas

According to the economist, another challenge is the general economic recession in these countries, which could have an impact on the EU as a whole, especially in the eurozone.

“If, for example, we see the big differences that the European Commission has slightly polished in its initial forecasts, and they do, investors should pay attention to that.” If an economic recovery plan cannot be agreed, or is not as ambitious as the original proposal, (…) then the conversation about a two-speed Europe can resume. It would have a negative impact across Europe, as investors who would think about investing in Europe would underestimate that risk. If it becomes significant, it will reduce the attractiveness of the entire EU, “said Ž. Mauricas