Lithuania wakes up differently: names the most painful corners of the new coalition and the most coveted positions

The coronavirus will also be affected

Kęstutis Girnius, Associate Professor, Institute of International Relations and Political Science, Vilnius University (VU TSPMI) Delphi He said that the center-right did particularly well in this election.

“There is a really strong coalition here – with 74 mandates, they will have lateral support, maybe what Remigijus Žemaitaitis will support, Vytautas Bakas really, from other parties. And then there will be no need to invite others. They will probably talk to the Labor Party, but you don’t need to invite workers, it would cause more problems. I think the results are much better than they imagined three weeks ago. It’s almost a miracle here. ” Delphi the political scientist spoke.

K. Girnis had questions about future negotiations.

“How many claims from those smaller parties? Still, there are no equal partners here. Because the Conservatives have five times more seats than the Liberals and the Freedom Party. This is a question of how I. Šimonytė will conduct those negotiations, “said the interlocutor.

“Normally, that small party will eliminate more seats, saying that it will not join the coalition and that the winners of the elections will not be able to form a majority. But in this case, when there is such a predominance, it would be very difficult to explain whether, for example , the leader of the Freedom Party Aušrinė Armonait que would say that she did not fulfill all her wishes, so she would not go. In that case, voters would feel cheated. I think A. Armonaitė and no one else would dare to do that “, – the political scientist drew the fate of the negotiations on the ruling coalition.

K. Girnius also appreciated the liberal desire to receive the post of Speaker of the Seimas. The expert recalled that the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party (LSDP), which had a similar result in 2016, did not receive this position.

“I think it’s pretty clear that those three parties will have to work together. And because the Conservatives have such an advantage, they have the right to set conditions more or less, “he said.

K. Girnius, political scientist at VU TSPMI, explained that the coronavirus will also affect the formation of the new Government.

“There can be so much pressure to reach an agreement earlier to handle those issues. And that could encourage conservatives to make more concessions than they would otherwise. It’s not necessarily easier to make things go faster,” he said .

We will have to reconcile

The political scientist said that the leader of the Freedom Party is very ambitious, which could generate discomfort.

“There are quite strict requirements. But what she wants will be very difficult to accept. In each case, the question can be posed quite strictly: if she is not given everything she wants, will she go to the coalition,” he said. At the same time, the interlocutor admitted that he did not imagine a scenario in which A. Armonaitė and the Freedom Party led by her would not come to the ruling coalition.

K. Girnius stated that the smallest part of the ruling coalition, the Freedom Party, will have to agree that not all of its proposals will be heard.

“It could be a while, but I think there should be an excess of goodwill at the beginning after such an unexpected victory.” Those problems may crop up a bit later, but I really have no idea that there will be unsolvable problems. A. Armonaitė will have to realize that he really cannot expect most of his party’s requirements to be met, ”he predicted.

According to K. Girnius, the Freedom Party, which named education as its first priority, could expect a portfolio from the Ministry in this area.

“It just came to our notice then. The Freedom Party has been talking about education for a long time, it’s the kind of post that conservatives could give to this party and say, lo, we’re giving you a delicious bite and we already consider it ours. achievement. I really think it wouldn’t be a bad decision, “said VU TSPMI political scientist.

A different Lithuania

When asked which Lithuanian voters will wake up on Monday morning, K. Girnius said that in a slightly different way. But if it would be better or worse, I could hardly name it.

“I think we will have a slightly different Lithuania. In 2-3 years it will be clear if it will be better. Each new government promises a lot, but usually there are many problems. And the implementation of the questions is very different,” predicted the interviewee.

At the same time, he highlighted the need to emphasize voter self-determination.

“It is important that Lithuania is the center-left country, but it is poorly governed and it can end badly. It ended badly for the previous coalition when the people turned away from the Socdems. Now the people have turned away from the peasants. This is a sign positive: that Lithuanian voters are becoming a bit more rational “, – Delphi said K. Girnius.

Enough for smooth operation

As can be seen from the election results, if such a coalition were formed, it would have 74 votes in the Seimas. The political scientist of the University Mykolas Romeris (MRU) Rima Urbonaitė Delphi He said that would be enough for a good performance.

“It’s the so-called minimal victory coalition, if we put this together. On the other hand, I clearly think they wanted higher numbers because being eighty-few already has another room for maneuver.

But I would not dramatize in this place, because the same ‘peasants’ according to the factions have been living for a long time without 71 votes, but they have maneuvered a little ”, said the political scientist.

According to R. Urbonaitė, the efficiency of work will also be affected by the discipline of the opposition. She doubted she could be very close.

“I doubt that the ‘workers’, the social democrats, the ‘peasants’ vote in unison. Naturally, the freedom of maneuver is less, the safe zone is also less, but nevertheless, I believe that it is really possible to work ”, said the political scientist, adding that the rulers will have to dedicate more effort and time to a greater organization.

The Freedom Party has no other choice

Although Freedom Party chairman A. Armonaitė has said it would be difficult to agree on certain issues with conservatives and the party’s aspirations to decriminalize the possession of small amounts of cannabis and create opportunities for same-sex families to create families. obstacles in coalition negotiations.

“We are talking about various issues and some of them, by the way, have support even among conservatives themselves. I. Šimonytė herself recently emphasized the fact that there was support among conservatives for voting for same-sex couples. This means that it is not the case that the entire conservative faction opposes it.

On the same issue of decriminalization. It’s not just about the parties’ positions here. After all, let’s see what the legal experts say, what they say about it. After all, not everyone talks only about the legalization of drugs. In the first place, we are talking about whether there should be immediate criminal responsibility for it, ”said R. Urbonaitė.

According to the political scientist, sometimes attempts are made to artificially radicalize the Freedom Party and turn it into something exceptional. Furthermore, the political scientist pointed out, if the Freedom Party did not agree to participate in this coalition, there would simply be no other option.

“The Freedom Party as a general party doesn’t have much of a chance of having any other coalition to agree with. And what are the other options? Okay, the Freedom Party is opposing it. How will that change? situation in four years? Are there new coalition partners for her? No, she has what she has, “said the political scientist.

R. Uronaitė said that it would be very strange if at least one of these Trojan parties finally left the negotiations because an agreement could not be reached.

Some posts will be the most coveted

On Sunday night, the Liberal Movement said it would like the post of Minister of Education. The Freedom Party also spoke about education as one of its top priorities.

“Even the conservatives will not cut the post of Minister of Education for sure. I think there are publications that will make the fight more difficult. One of those positions may be Minister of Education,” said the political scientist.

He also mentioned the position of Minister of Finance, the position of Minister of Health, as very important.

“Let’s not forget, we have a serious pandemic and it is clear that the situation there is more tense today than ever. There are critical points here ”, commented R. Urbonaitė.

The political scientist said that there are many seats at the negotiating table and not just ministerial chairs.

“I think that when it comes to the Finance Minister post, I doubt Ingrida Šimonytė will give it to anyone, because the Finance Minister is actually her right hand before the Prime Minister.” It may be that she still wants someone to trust. a lot and maybe even choose herself, “said the interlocutor.

Social Democrats are ‘what ifs’

Although three parties are currently involved in the coalition talks, Gabriel Landsberg said on election night that he saw the need to speak to the Social Democrats as well. According to R. Urbonaitė, this is a hedge.

“This is what if.” Naturally, seeing that small advantage, one can think of the so-called fourth partner of the coalition, but only if it seems that they really need it, ”shared the political scientist.

However, she is convinced that if she talks to the Social Democrats, she will be separated and only if the other coalition partners agree.

“They (three parts – Delphi) become the main ones, and apparently not only the conservatives and not only Gabrielius Landsbergis or Ingrida Šimonytė will decide on the fourth. Here they have reserved a margin of maneuver more ”, said the political scientist.

However, he doubted that the Social Democrats would agree to the proposal to join the ruling coalition.

“I have many doubts as to whether they would agree to speak. I think the most appropriate thing for the Social Democrats now would be to go to the opposition and try to solve their internal problems,” said R. Urbonaitė.

How much is it

At the end of the second round of the Seimas elections on Sunday, it became clear that representatives of ten political forces and four self-appointed candidates would work in parliament.

The SNB provides the number of seats per party:

Union of the Homeland – Lithuanian Christian Democrats – 50 seats;

Union of Greens and Peasants of Lithuania: 32 mandates;

Liberal Movement: 13 seats;

Lithuanian Social Democratic Party: 13 seats;

Freedom Party: 11 seats;

Labor Party: 10 seats;

Lithuanian Polish Election Campaign – Union of Christian Families – 3 seats;

Lithuanian Social Democratic Labor Party: 3 seats;

Freedom and Justice Party – 1 term;

Lithuanian Green Party – 1 term;

Self-appointed candidates: 4 seats.

There are 141 members of the Seimas who work in Parliament.