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According to the Department of Statistics, more and more people are moving to cities and, in the remaining small districts, an increasing proportion of the population is of retirement age.
Specialists use the demographic ratio of old age to determine the ratio between the number of older people and the young. This is for people over 65. number of people for every 100 children under 15 years of age. age.
The higher this indicator, the more older people in the district compared to the number of children.
According to this indicator, the Ignalina district is the leader in Lithuania. There are 258 older people for every 100 children. Next is Anykščiai with an old-age demographic coefficient of 243, the third is Mol distritotai district. There, this indicator reaches 213, in the Rokiškis and Zarasai districts – 208 each, in the Biržai district – 207.
Shows future prospects
Experts say the higher the rate in the district, the worse the outlook is expected. According to demographer Daumantas Stumbris from Vytautas Magnus University (VMU), the old-age demographic coefficient shows what the future holds for the district in a few years.
“It just came to our knowledge then. The proportion of young people is much lower than the proportion of older people. What awaits these regions are changes in the demographic structure,” says D. Stumbrys.
According to the demographer, due to the aging population, the district may become less attractive for business and new investments.
However, Romas Lazutka, an economics professor at Vilnius University (VU), says that even if there are more older people living in these districts today, this does not mean that the districts disappear. A part of the population in smaller areas should remain.
Population growth is not to be expected, but residents of aging areas need some services. To be awarded, new hires would have to come to those areas.
The professor says those looking to work in areas of aging should emerge. In this way, small towns should reproduce.
“Since it is not easy for everyone in the city to get a job according to their profession, it may be more relevant that people choose not just any job in Vilnius, but in a city according to their profession. Then you settle there, and if the communication is good, convenient, not very expensive, then you can go to Vilnius for entertainment or any variety of services if you want, if you have a job, income from those villages ”, R. Lazutka comments.
The state will have to intervene
Economist Marius Dubnikov says that in the future these services should be more expensive in these aging areas.
“The outlook is that the costs of medical and social care in aging areas will inevitably increase.” In this case, the central government will inevitably have to subsidize these regions, otherwise it will be a serious social problem. Spending in these areas is likely to increase and is likely to rest more on the shoulders of the central government.
The local government will no longer have much freedom of action because as the area ages, more and more money is allocated to service and less and less money comes from the same personal income tax, because there is not much to be gained ” says M. Dubnikov.
R. Lazutka says that in addition to state financial support for the aging population, transportation services will also be very important.
“Public transport is also very deteriorated, there is little investment in it, which is the second very important factor to sustain life. There are older people there, a smaller population, but if there is transport and good communication, there are people who choose to live there and work in the city ”, says R. Lazutka.
According to demographer D. Stumbris, it was necessary to take control of demographic aging sooner.
“There have been many signs that it is necessary to take action 10 years ago, 20 years ago. Here we see the consequence that is the result of certain demographic processes. Perhaps we can relate them to certain political decisions, questions of demographic policy, regional politics, but that it is already the result. We see the results of the changes that took place five or ten years ago, the birth rates as they were, “says D. Stumbrys.
Dubnikov says that in the future the general demographic situation of the country should improve, but it is likely to improve in economic centers: “Demographic movements show economic processes. If a person withdraws from that environment, it means that the economic situation is not good. “
The number of older people in the districts is also increasing due to the fact that young people are going to study in larger cities.
“In the regions of higher education institutions like Šiauliai University and others, they become such centers of attraction and people who graduated from those institutions graduated from universities, some of them stayed. Now, of course, one is that the number of students is decreasing, the other is that the universities in those peripheries are closing or reorganizing, ”says D. Stumbrys.
Offers to improve fertility
According to D. Stumbris, the increasing rate of demographic aging can be influenced by several reasons. For one thing, the birth rate is falling. According to the specialist, the total birth rate in Lithuania is very low: it is only 1.6.
“It means that two adults have 1.6 children, two people replace one and a half people. It comes about 25 percent. a smaller generation, ”says D. Stumbrys.
Previous generations were significantly larger than the current one. As birth rates fall, the demographic pyramid is distorted.
“The demographic pyramid is no longer even like the demographic pyramid, it is similar to the inverted pyramid because the base is losing its base. This means that the number of young people is very small ”, says D. Stumbrys.
It also contributes to the increase in life expectancy. The longer people live, the more weight they have in the demographic pyramid.
“We have seen some factors in health policy, life expectancy is getting longer. The health of the population has never been so good, before the pandemic I mean how it was in 2020. At the beginning, we saw really positive changes, ”says D. Stumbrys.
According to the expert, the focus should be on improving the birth rate in the country. One aspect is creating better conditions for young people to form a family and work at the same time.
“There is the thesis that the birth rate will increase or stabilize when people can start a family and have a career at the same time. That a woman shouldn’t have to choose between family and work. If there is the opportunity to combine family and work, it is important for both a woman and a man, then she can have children and she does not need to make radical decisions in life, ”says demographer D. Stumbrys.
According to data from the Department of Statistics, the lowest old-age demographic coefficient is recorded in Klaipėda district – 90, Vilnius district – 94, Vilnius city – 95, Neringa – 96.
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