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Scientists advising the government are taking this message with concern.
The third wave has occurred
Vaidotas Zemlys-Balevičius, a data scientist at UAB Euromonitor International, recalls that at the end of February, epidemiologists announced that there was no third wave of COVID-19, although statistics showed otherwise.
“As they say, you can ignore reality, but reality will never ignore you. The best thing to do is send flowers and chocolates to the Department of Statistics, apologize, and start taking a serious look at the situation.
The third wave, I suppose, will not be as big as the second. Vaccination, more testing, and hot weather will stop it. And the consequences will likely be less painful. But the lesson remains the same, action must be taken without waiting for the situation to deteriorate, “said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
He believes that even when the epidemiological situation deteriorates, quarantine can be relaxed by controlling the risk of infection.
“Managing an epidemic is basically a numbers game: you keep track of the situation and make decisions depending on whether it gets worse or better. The point is proactive action, you don’t have to wait for the virus to arrive, but you have to go and find it yourself. <...>
Therefore, it is possible to open those activities where the risk is minimal, such as outdoor cafes, and where it can be ensured that cases are proactively identified and where the risk can be realistically measured. But it requires constant work, analysis of the situation and active action. Unfortunately, the state epidemic control authorities are completely incapable of doing so, ”the scientist admitted.
We can see 3,000 new cases every day.
Mindaugas Stankūnas, another government adviser professor, professor at the Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, predicted that Lithuania would soon enter the “black” stage.
“After today’s government decision, only one rodent came out of quarantine. The stages of the launch of the different activities are clearly identified with the dates. From a purely mathematical point of view, these versions should translate into an increase in new cases. I’ll be precise that this should lead to +3000 new COVID-19 cases per day in early May.
Massive testing helps control, but not so much that it alone is sufficient for low morbidity rates. Vaccination will not work as strongly yet. Looking at the Israeli experience, we need at least 40 percent. vaccinated people. We are still halfway there and we will reach that number even with the most optimistic plans only in late May or early June, ”predicted the scientist.
Other scenarios
The tv3.lė portal recalls that the municipality is assigned to the red zone (scenario C) when the morbidity is 100,000. The population exceeds 100 cases in the last 14 days and the proportion of positive tests per week is equal to or greater than 4%. This zone is divided into several scenarios: C1, C2, C3.
The municipality is assigned to the yellow zone (scenario B) when the morbidity is 100,000. the population is greater than 50 cases and the proportion of positive tests per week is equal to or greater than 4%. Scenarios B1 and B2 are available.
The municipality is assigned to the green zone when the number of cases is 100,000. population is less than 25 cases, the proportion of positive tests is equal to or less than 4%.
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