Lithuania and Estonia have upset Beijing over the 17 + 1 format – is it time to drop it altogether?

The Politico portal announced last weekend that Lithuania and Estonia would not be represented at the 17 + 1 summit.

“Currently, we can confirm that neither the president nor the prime minister will represent Lithuania at the meeting,” said a representative of the Lithuanian Permanent Representation to the EU.

President Gitan Nausėda will be replaced by Minister of Transport and Communications Marius Skuodis at Tuesday’s meeting, and the Presidency informed BNS on Monday.

“We received an invitation from China to participate in a remote video conference of the 17 + 1 Heads of State and Government on February 9. No important decisions will be made for Lithuania at this meeting. The president will not participate in this meeting,” Antanas said Bubnelis, spokesman for the president.

Estonia will be represented at the meeting by the country’s Minister for Foreign Affairs. “We prefer the 27 + 1 format and talk to China through a common EU policy,” said a spokeswoman for Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kalla.

The 17 + 1 format includes China and 17 Central and Eastern European countries, of which 12 belong to the European Union. The Beijing format is being used to strengthen ties with countries in the region, focusing on infrastructure projects.

Recommend to leave

Since 2012, when the 16 + 1 format was established, China’s role in the world and behavior in domestic politics have changed, as has the context of China’s relations with Central and Eastern Europe, including Lithuania, says the Institute. of International Relations of Vilnius University and Political Science TSPMI) Associate Professor dr. Konstantinas Andrijauskas.

According to the political scientist, the decision not to represent Lithuania at the highest level could be expected, especially considering the change of government that promised valuable foreign policy.

“In part, this is in line with the narrative and values ​​of the presidency and the new government. However, it should be noted that almost a decade after the establishment of the format, we see that the main reasons why Lithuania decided to participate in it they didn’t work.

We expected that Chinese investment would more actively open its market to our exports, but unfortunately at the beginning of 2021 we do not see either, and in many respects the trends are even the opposite, “said K. Andrijauskas.

According to the political scientist, the 17 + 1 format is seen as an attempt to divide Europe, and the unity of the EU is now needed to solve many fundamental challenges. “Lithuania and Estonia understand that solidarity with Brussels is much more important than solidarity with 17 + 1 countries, and even more so with China,” he added.

K. Andrijauskas believes that Lithuania should withdraw from the 17 + 1 format in general, because it did not bring tangible achievements. The political scientist sees no assumption that he will benefit more in the future than he does now.

“Because it’s generally about China’s interest in highly security-sensitive sectors that we can’t get into. And geopolitical changes and global frictions have a huge impact on us. Both the previous and current US administrations are reluctant. to look at the attempts of its close allies to flirt with China. We must also take this aspect into account, “he said.

According to the political scientist, it would be better to withdraw from the format in solidarity with one or more Member States.

“No state wants to go first, because the biggest arrows of potential anger will be directed at it. It would be easier for two or more states to do this together. Beijing sees the withdrawal of Estonia and Lithuania as a challenge, it is very unhappy with it, for what is important is that states are not alone in making such decisions. Then the house of cards is likely to begin to collapse, “he said.

In addition to the Baltic format, EU members such as Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovenia and recently acceded Greece also participate in the meetings. It also includes non-EU members such as North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina.

In a report published last year, the Lithuanian intelligence services stated that China was expanding its influence around the world, securing financial support from other countries on political matters important to Beijing.

The document said that China’s pursuit of technological advantages and active investment penetration increase the vulnerability of other countries and the risk of losing control of infrastructure.