Lingienė on the course of the coronavirus: how the spherical situation will depend on various factors

Rolanda Lingienė, head of the Vilnius department of the National Center for Public Health (NVSC), says that it is still difficult to predict when Lithuania will reach the peak of the second pandemic wave, but according to her, the situation is changing very fast every day, and certainly not for the better. According to her, scientists predict various scenarios for the second wave of the pandemic, but how the spherical situation will depend on various factors, the media report said.

“In the first place, from the desire and determination of the people, of society itself to change the situation. Every time we speak in public, we urge the public to just communicate in our so-called “bubble.” Try to stay in contact only with people with whom you have constant contact. If unnecessary direct communication is not restricted, then the incidence curve will continue to increase, ”he says.

R. Lingienė adds that the course of the pandemic will also depend on the decisions made by the authorities and the measures taken, but there is a certain condition here.

“The measures will not matter if each of us does not implement them,” said the epidemiologist, who was supported by other experts in various fields at the recent NVSC conference “Facing COVID-19: Are we getting stronger?”

Relaxation and liars

Epidemiologists and public health professionals constantly monitor and evaluate disease information, and comparing the current situation with the quarantine period announced in the spring reveals unsatisfactory trends.

“We have only recorded a few outbreaks in the spring, and we are currently constantly reporting cases where the virus has spread somewhere. As we were living in quarantine conditions in spring, the number of people who had contact with the infected person was much lower, because then people only communicated with their relatives, which means that the number of infections was not that great, ”explains R. Lingienė.

He expressed concern that even with the increasing incidence of dangerous disease statistics, people do not want to limit their social life: actively communicating, meeting in public places of entertainment, attending various activities and often feeling bad, they share this virus. insidious with many other people.

Although not dozens but hundreds of new cases are reported daily, the public, according to the head of the NVSC Vilnius Department, reacts to the situation in two ways: either they are very relaxed or they are tired of the endless tension and stress associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

“It is natural, but in no way can this attitude help inspire people to continue fighting the pandemic. Reaching people’s minds is also hampered by the widespread lie that no one has the disease, because there is sick people among loved ones. There is also a myth that the illness is similar to the flu and there is no need to worry about it. Unfortunately, in this noise of information, our messages are simply lost “, says R. Lingienė, reviewing the thoughts expressed by colleagues at the conference.

Epidemiologist’s Message to Parents

Speaking of the pandemic-related challenges that await Lithuania in the coming months, the epidemiologist has outlined several strategic directions in the fight against the coronavirus.

According to her, it is necessary to manage communicable disease outbreaks in the “most sensitive” places, such as social care institutions, hospitals and educational institutions, as soon as possible. It is also important to increase the number of cases detected in order to trace the virus chain as efficiently as possible. In addition, it is necessary to stop the spread of the virus among young people, who often feel no symptoms and share the virus with people at risk during their normal active social lives.

The next second wave of coronavirus was discussed in the spring, so when assessing the readiness of the public and medical institutions for it, R. Lingienė emphasized that the quarantine was intended to buy time to prepare for the fall, when the flu season.

“The public should be aware that epidemiologists and public health professionals, as well as the health system as a whole, are working to keep COVID-19 as low as possible, but this will be difficult without public participation. “, He said.

According to R. Lingienė, health institutions are doing and have done everything possible to protect their communities and patients, but as the number of cases increases, it becomes increasingly difficult for them to work.

“Currently, on average, about 8 percent are hospitalized. People infected with COVID-19, so we will soon reach such a hospitalization rate that it will overload the health system and we will have to concentrate the efforts of doctors only to combat COVID -19 This means that fewer and fewer hospital staff would be needed to treat other diseases, ”he says, adding that the burden on doctors in the fall is particularly high for other communicable diseases.

The epidemiologist notes that responsible vaccination against seasonal influenza and other diseases is particularly important in the context of a pandemic.

“Vaccines are one of the most effective tools to protect not only vaccinated people, but also the health system itself. Vaccination is important to make it easier to distinguish between COVID-19 and influenza, and it is clearer what treatment measures should be used ”, explains R. Lingienė.

It advises parents not to delay vaccinating children against pneumococcal infection, even in the event of a pandemic, and to vaccinate them with the vaccines recommended in the Pediatric Preventive Vaccination Schedule.