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Researchers from Stanford University and Northwestern University used data collected in March-May in US cities to represent the movement of people. It was observed where they traveled, how long they stayed in one place or another, how many more people were there and from which areas they came. The researchers then combined all of this information with data on the number of cases and the ways the virus spreads, to create models of infection.
In Chicago, for example, the study model projected that if restaurants were to open at full capacity, about 600,000 new infections would be recorded, three times more than in other categories.
A study published in the journal Nature also found that about 10 percent of 85% of the places surveyed. Anticipated infections.
This kind of highly detailed data “draws our attention to vulnerable areas,” said Eric Topolis of the Scripps Translational Research Institute, who was not involved in the study. “And then you need to focus on those highlights.”
Marc Lipsitch and Kevin Ma of Harvard’s TH Chan School of Public Health expressed a similar opinion in an article in the journal Nature; they wrote that there is little epidemiological data on how interventions slow the spread of infection.
Such models, they wrote, can act as a starting point for political decisions about opening up activities.
The models presented in the study also suggest that large-scale quarantine is not necessary to control the spread of the virus. Masks, physical distance, and reduced capacity can play a key role in controlling the situation.
20 percent Indoor occupancy restrictions in Chicago and its suburbs have reduced the number of new infections predicted by the study by more than 80 percent. And since such a restriction mainly affected only part of the movement, usually during peak hours, restaurants lost only 42 percent of the total. regular customers.
The decision to reduce the maximum number of places in establishments, according to the study, may be more effective than less specific measures in slowing the spread of the virus and, at the same time, potentially profitable.
Opening strategies
“We need to think of strategies to open up the economy,” said Jury Leskovec, a computer science researcher at Stanford University and lead author on the paper. “This allows us to examine the different opening scenarios and assess how they would respond to the spread of the virus.”
According to J. Leskovec, in addition to measures to reduce the risk of the virus, according to his forecasts, a third of the population could have been infected with the virus. By applying their model to publicly available data on the number of infections per day, the researchers found that such a model could predict epidemic trajectories better than other models.
The model also shows how effective quarantine measures in public spaces can be in the long term in capturing infections and the use of those spaces.
In Miami, for example, spikes in hotel infestations were predicted, around the same time that the city was noisily bustling with stormy beach parties during Spring Break, despite a terrible pandemic. However, with the entry into force of the quarantine, the curves of these forecasts fell sharply.
Income differences
The study also predicted differences in the extent of infections between different income groups. Low-income residents are believed to be more prone to infection because they are more likely to visit narrower, crowded places and are less willing to restrict their general movement.
The idea in this study that restaurant openings could spark a wave of new infections is not unique. JPMorgan Chase & Co. said Monday that it had found that the level of personal spending in restaurants, recorded three weeks ago, was the most accurate means of predicting where new cases of infection would occur.
At the time, a higher analog rate in supermarkets may have indicated a slower spread of the virus, as shoppers in those areas may be living more cautiously, says the bank, which monitors $ 30 million. Chase credit and debit card holders.
According to Topolis, all these layers of data could be combined into a national virus surveillance program, helping policymakers develop more advanced and targeted virus risk reduction policies. He advocated the use of smart bracelets (fitness tracker) as another means to identify potential virus outbreaks.
According to Leskovec, his team is trying to create a tool to help government officials make decisions about opening up the economy.
“More testing of the model is needed,” wrote Ma and M. Lipsitch in its author’s article. “But given the difficulties associated with rallies and interpreting other important types of data, these findings could be valuable in making policy decisions, such as how to safely open up public life and how to minimize the damage caused by movement restrictions. “.
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