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Kim Jong Un is one of the few world leaders who has yet to congratulate, or at least acknowledge, the president-elect, all the more so as Chinese President Xi Jinping did on Wednesday. While it is not uncommon for North Korea to fail to react to the results of the US elections, Kim Jong Un held unprecedented meetings with President Donald Trump, who broke the established form of long-standing enemy relations.
However, ties are now likely to return to the colder days of the Barack Obama administration, when the United States used “strategic patience” to refrain from responding to North Korean provocations, a policy that persisted after the 2011 coup. the country was taken over by Kim Jong Un.
North Korea itself is unlikely to make much of a difference: Under both Obama and Trump, Kim Jong Un has steadily increased his ability to threaten the United States with nuclear weapons, despite increasingly harsh sanctions.
“Whoever occupies the US presidency is unlikely to change their behavior or adopt a more pro-American strategy,” said Soo Kim, a policy analyst at Rand Corp. who previously worked for the Central Intelligence Agency. – Nuclear weapons will not disappear, Kim Jong Un will continue to develop and control them, and this strategy has been in place for decades. Why change what works? “
2009 When Obama came to power, North Korea challenged him a few months later with the launch of a long-range missile and a nuclear device. Trump was greeted at the White House for a series of ballistic missile tests conducted in 2017. He completed an ICBM in November, experts say, capable of launching a nuclear payload to all US states.
The most likely test this time will be another ICBM. It could be the new missile unveiled by North Korea at a military parade in October to bring a large quantity of nuclear cartridges to the United States. Earlier this month, the Pentagon announced the successful acquisition of a simulated ICBM developed by North Korea.
“They need to test the new ICBM to show its power in the eyes of their opponents, and they will likely do so as soon as they are ready,” said Melissa Hanham, deputy director of the Open Nuclear Network. “North Korea only needs its missiles to be accurate enough to deter US action.”
North Korea views its nuclear weapons as protection against a US attack and has vowed not to give them up no matter what. Kim Jong Un has repeatedly rejected the Trump administration’s calls for “complete, verifiable and irreversible” dismantling; otherwise, Pyongyang will continue to be sanctioned.
Camp Biden agrees to give more space to negotiations, stating in a policy document that the president-elect wants to “start from scratch” a disarmament campaign with allies of the United States and other countries. In a second presidential debate in October, Biden called Kim Jong Un a “bandit” but added that he would meet with the North Korean leader if he took steps to reduce his nuclear arsenal.
Biden’s planned Secretary of State Antony Blinken called Trump’s personal diplomacy a failure and advocated a multi-stage multilateral approach to disarmament.
2017 In an article published in the New York Times, Blinken supported negotiations with North Korea on an initial agreement “that would initially freeze and then close North Korea’s nuclear program, with inspectors scrutinizing compliance with the agreement.” Only then could a more complete agreement be reached.
Kim Jong Un is likely to give hints about how he will deal with the Biden administration during his New Year’s speech, one of the biggest political speeches on the country’s political calendar. Around Biden’s inauguration of the North, North Korea is expected to host a ruling party congress outlining a new five-year plan for the country’s economy, which faces the largest contraction in more than two decades due to a series of sanctions, coronavirus and natural disasters.
Pyongyang has ordered its overseas missions not to provoke any provocation until the United States hands over power, officials from the South Korean intelligence agency told parliament on Friday.
Kim Jong Uno’s decision to close borders to coronavirus has had a devastating effect on trade, which has declined by 80 percent year-over-year with China, a major partner, the Korea International Trade Association said on Friday. .
Pyongyang made it clear that it would prefer to communicate with Trump, who saw Kim Jong Un as an equivalent policy. His regime praised the “mysteriously wonderful” chemistry between the leaders of the two countries and condemned Biden as “an asshole lacking elementary human qualities.”
While Biden seeks to work with Trump’s “America First” allies, Kim Jong Un can see that he has more friends now than a few years ago.
Its relations with China and Russia have improved remarkably, though both countries in 2017, along with the United States, supported unprecedented United Nations Security Council sanctions against North Korea in response to its nuclear and missile tests.
“This time around, the new tests may no longer have the same effect at the UN,” said Ankitas Panda, a senior fellow at the Carnegie International Peace Foundation in Stanton, adding that tensions could quickly escalate if Biden responds by demonstrating military might. . “The biggest risk would be if we and North Korea reentered the vicious cycle of crisis.”
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