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The appetite does not complain
The Conservatives, who have tentatively won 50 seats, still do not speak openly about the seats, but the little “sisters” of the future coalition have not hesitated, they have said which seats they want. The liberal movement has even named some personalities.
Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen, the president of the Liberal Movement, says she is happy with the results of the Seimas elections: she won 13 parliamentary seats. According to her, the party hopes to receive the portfolios of three ministries and the position of Spokesperson for Seimas.
“The Liberal Movement believes that we could speak of three ministries in these negotiations, they are related to those points of the program: the Ministry of Education, Environment and Economy and Innovation. We also believe that we can and should run for the position of President of Seimas as a partner in the coalition that has shown the second result (13 terms). “Economy and Innovation – Simonas Kairys.
Aušrinė Armonaitė, the president of the Freedom Party (11 seats), also does not hide her ambitions. According to her, the party would like to operate in the fields of education, the economy and human rights. At the time, political scientists had no doubt that the ruling coalition would be made up of all three parties, and the leader of the Conservative list, I. Šimonytė, would be nominated as prime minister, but he did not dare to speculate further.
Conservatives won’t cut the branch
Political scientist Kęstutis Girnius believes that the tripartite coalition is not particularly disappointed by the unification of other political forces, because the formation with 74 seats will be quite sustainable.
“The coalition is likely to have the support of Remigijus Žemaitaitis, who is right, the Labor Party will not join the coalition with its 10 seats, but it will be neutral, it will not join the opposition, so it will be possible to discuss some fear with him. ” A 74-seat coalition, made up of 3 parties, will be strong enough compared to the previous ones. After all, when the most important issues are discussed in the Seimas, the rulers could not allow their own people to take business trips, so there would be no shortage of votes. Although, frankly, I really don’t think that’s the case. “All 100 senators participate in the US Congress when there is a significant vote, at least 430 out of 435 politicians in the House of Representatives. Unfortunately, I do not remember the cases where there would be at least 120 MPs in Lithuania at the same time.” K. Girnius said.
According to the interlocutor, the Liberal Movement overshadowed too many important positions.
“The second party of the coalition in terms of mandates usually receives the position of Spokesperson for Seimas, but it must be remembered that the Liberal Movement is a weak party that has only obtained 13 seats. Four years ago, when the “peasants” won even more seats than the Conservatives now, they assumed the positions of Prime Minister and President of the Seimas. I think it can be the same now. Although V. Čmilyte-Nielsen But I have serious doubts about ministerial posts, because they want very important posts, and I think the Conservatives will want to keep not only the finance minister, but also other important posts, including economics and innovation. 2-3 ministerial positions. I suspect it will be more important for her to include some of her own provisions in the coalition program: on the decriminalization of marijuana, on the recognition of gay marriages, but I don’t think the latter will work because some conservatives will hold out without losing their constituency . I would say – both A.Armonaitė and V.Čmilytė-Nielsen have announced maximalist positions – which they would like to receive. On political issues and similar issues, the Freedom Party can be left-wing, skeptical of the church, of patriotic demonstrations, and if conservatives, if they agree unconditionally, cause internal strife and deter some voters. Therefore, A. Armonaitė will achieve much less than expected, “commented K. Girnius.
In any case, the political scientist has no doubt that it will indeed be a coalition of the three parties mentioned.
“If the Freedom Party cannot agree with the conservatives, how can it reach an agreement with the ‘peasants’? And even if he agrees, the coalition will continue without votes. “When the Conservatives formed a coalition, a minister took office and was exhausted, so the Ministry of Energy was created. Let us not rule out the possibility that a new ministerial position now appears,” reasoned K. Girnius.
Won’t break the rules
The political scientist Vytautas Dumbliauskas believes that V.Čmilytė-Nielsen will be the spokesperson for the Seimas, if she herself expresses such a wish.
“It is an old unwritten rule that the ruling party with the most seats takes the post of Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, and the other party, the President of the Seimas. Yes, 4 years ago the ‘peasants’ had broken this tradition, but they had won almost 60 seats. I think the Conservatives are not going to break tradition. Let us remember even more that in 2008 they handed over the position of Speaker of the Seimas to Arūnas Valinskas. ”Dumbliauskas.
He also recalled how the Conservative Party, which formed the coalition in 2008, distributed the seats: each seat was scored, the number of seats for which a member of the coalition should receive depends on the number of seats.
“It just came to our knowledge then. The position of the Minister of Finance – 3 points, culture – 1 and the like. Probably a formula will be created so that no one is offended. This is how they will share,” reasoned V. Dumbliauskas.
Don’t believe in constructive opposition
Ramūnas Karbauskis, leader of the Peasants, said yesterday that his party in the new Seimas would show how constructive opposition should really work. V. Dumbliauskas is skeptical of such promises. Remember that 4 years ago R. Karbauskis himself promised that his coalition that is being formed will be as transparent as ever before, but it has been a failure.
“I think R. Karbauskis will hardly appear in the Seimas. When he first joined the Seimas and was a regular member of the Seimas, he did not participate in the Seimas sessions, for which he received a reprimand from the then Seimas Speaker Artūras Paulauskas. sat in Spain and did not attend meetings I can bet he will not even be at work now, unless he is the leader of the opposition for six months.
And will Saulius Skvernelis want to be a regular member of the Seimas when he has reached such heights? Will you want to go to the Seimas when no one is interested anymore, when no one even takes an interview from you? “- speculated the political scientist, according to which the constructive opposition” does not shine “just for that.
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