Johnson hopes fateful month: Brexit will attack at the wrong time

In the context of the scandal at the hands of his senior adviser, Dominic Cummings, and the fact that the new coronavir may have the highest casualties in Europe, this month will be crucial for the British prime minister, if he at least tries to regain power early 2020.

June is also very important in the context of the UK negotiations with the European Union on life after Brexit. Called the architect Brexit, Johnson has vehemently vowed not to extend the transition in a way that he simply cannot afford to capitulate, especially as problems mount in the country. In this case, weakness is not an option.

Here’s the situation: The UK officially withdrew from the European Union on January 31. Then a transition period began, when it still has to be seen as an exchange of European Union rules for things to go as they did on key issues, including trade.

The essence of the transition was to create a safe and comfortable space where both parties could safely negotiate a future relationship without causing unnecessary confusion for businesses and ordinary people. Be that as it may, the transition period will end on December 31, and sources on both sides say the deal is working quite poorly.

Find a way to break out of the political impasse as the coronavirus pandemic prevented. Negotiation teams could no longer meet face-to-face, they had to rely on video conferencing solutions. The next round of virtual negotiations began on Tuesday, but sources argue that such a format is inappropriate and undermines the quality of the negotiations, as negotiators miss out on solving some problems in private. Furthermore, the magnitude of the new coronavirus crisis has left the Brexit negotiations in the background.

So Johnson should spend June with an eye on the negotiations with the world’s largest trade bloc, but at the same time monitor the country’s success in dealing with the biggest public health crisis in decades.

Both sides agree that June will be a month to clarify whether any mutually acceptable agreement is possible, or whether we still need to be prepared to acknowledge the fact that there will be no agreement.

No agreement: worst case. The British economy is highly dependent on imports from Europe. When trade is disrupted as much as possible, it would hurt supply chains a lot – companies and automakers will face real hell because they rely heavily on them, and ordinary mortals will also have trouble with staples like food. . More than one study predicts that in this case, both the entire state and all of Britain will face a difficult time.

Although both the United Kingdom and the European Union say they do not want that result, negotiators fear that political stagnation is a bad prophet. “The European Union is acting unreasonably by demanding that if we want a free trade agreement, we can only do so if we continue to act in accordance with the rules of the European Union.” They know very well that we simply cannot agree with that. If we agree, what is Brexit for? “Says a British official who declined to appear.

The rules in question here are a particularly sensitive issue in negotiations and are known as the “guarantor of a level playing field.”

It is essentially an agreement on certain rules and standards to prevent companies on one side from harming companies on the other side of the agreement. The single market of the European Union is the largest economic bloc in the world. The courts and institutions of the European Union are responsible for ensuring that everyone plays by the same rules and is on a level playing field. If the British want to continue to have free access to this market after the end of the transition period (and that is Mr Johnson’s original idea), the European Union will insist on complying with those rules.

Securing a level playing field is not the only area where London and Brussels disagree. Nor is there common ground on fishing rights, security and governance and what will happen on the island of Ireland. The point is that both London and Brussels negotiators will make sure that an agreement is reached on these issues, which, unfortunately, cannot be said about the point of these uniform rules for trade.

According to the United Kingdom, it could also abandon its ambitions for tax-free free trade with the European Union if Brussels renounces the same rules. This idea does not seem attractive to the European Union, since, according to Brussels, there is no time to talk about tax rates during the transition period.

Theoretically, Johnson, if he just wanted to follow this path, he could buy more time. Until June 30, you still have the opportunity to request an extension of the transition period. This alone would be a politically toxic decision, and Johnson’s advisers are convinced that such a scenario is not possible at this time. It is this toxicity of the Brexit debate that poses a real threat of disagreement, since any weakening of Johnson’s position would amount to capitulation and the Prime Minister would be in trouble with his supporters.

Interestingly, the pandemic is conducive to disguising the damage that disagreement could do to the British economy. “We cannot argue: the call to logic really solves all economic problems at once,” said Anand Menon, head of the UK on a panel for Change in Europe.

“From the supply chain to the functioning of the entire economy, the virus will change everything. So even though those things are not very interconnected and can worsen each other’s situation, I see the political logic to do everything at the same time,” he says. the expert.

Furthermore, the pandemic makes it easier for the government to allocate funds to all major obstacles along the way in an attempt to protect against the worst case scenario.

“Inevitably, some sectors of the economy will be affected by both Brexit and the coronavirus. If the Johnson government were to dedicate funds to compensate for the damage in this area, it would soon become clear that it would receive less resistance than simply spending money to deal with the effects. of Brexit alone, as there is much more coherence in power, that is, the need to recover from COVID-19, says Raoul Rupareli, Johnson’s predecessor, Theresa May’s Brexit adviser.

In Brussels, Member States have recently agreed on the scenario that no agreement will be reached before the end of the year.

“Emotionally, we are no longer dependent on the UK’s decision.” This is a country that is no longer part of the European Union, and we are now focusing on how to recover from a coronavirus attack, “says a source who wants to stay on. anonymity.
This type of negligence is quite common in the institutions of the European Union, where a negotiating official, shrugging his shoulders, even said that “the UK can do what it wants” and Brussels is very well prepared for a stalemate in late June .

The European Union has believed for some time that, if an agreement is not reached, the new situation will be better than the United Kingdom. “The European Union is very aware that its position is stronger. Yes, not reaching an agreement will harm it, but the situation in the United Kingdom is much more complicated. The truth is that both parties are equal in terms of sovereignty, but both understand very well that the European Union does not need to make the same concessions that the United Kingdom will have to make, “says Thomas Cole, a former negotiator for the European Union.

And, as in the case of the United Kingdom, the coronavirus can make it easier for the European Union to swallow a significant proportion of the amounts of long-term non-negotiated damage.

“It is paradoxical that, in principle, some aspects of the attempts to reach an agreement are quite favorable for the European Union. Companies looking for ways to reduce their operations in Europe due to the coronavirus can easily decide to get rid of their offices and factories in the UK In fact, it can even help solve a number of problems, “says Fabian Zuleeg, head of the Center for European Policy.

Of course, neither side wants to disagree, and it still assures journalists that they are determined to break the impasse and find a solution acceptable to all. However, in the near future, with the acceleration in June, attempts to blame each other for political guilt will only increase.

If the negotiations fail, both sides will starve and become victims. Politically, in the short term, this is quite beneficial for Johnson, as he plays the role of a courageous leader in the fight against European terrorism. But, as Menon points out, the world after the new coronavirus will be completely different and really difficult to predict.

“Everyone is angry at China, God knows how the elections in the United States will end. Doesn’t the UK really want to be angry at Europe?” He asks.

So if Mr. Johnson is serious about avoiding a disagreement scenario, a combination of frozen conversations, a troublesome coronavirus on both sides, and a June deadline to ensure that the beginning of summer is really hot.