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Epidemiologist living and working in Sweden, evolutionary biologist dr. Gytis Dudas cautioned that we should not be in a rush to rejoice in the usual flu epidemic so easily this year.
A large number of unborn people could become a problem starting this fall.
“All the restrictions to control SARS-CoV-2 have hit the flu extremely hard, because the incubation period for flu is much shorter and its window of infectivity is much shorter. Of course, this can also be cause problems in the future: when there are so many people who have not had the flu, there will be a fairly large sample of the population that could become infected ”, explained the researcher.
Fallen indicators
The National Center for Public Health (NVSC) reports that in the eleventh week of 2021, the total incidence of influenza and acute upper respiratory infections (CVD) in Lithuania increased slightly and reached 14 cases per 10,000. population,
By way of comparison, in the same week of 2020, this indicator was 4.5 times higher (63.1 cases per 10,000 inhabitants), while at the same time in 2019 this indicator of morbidity reached 59.9 cases per 10,000 population. population.
According to NVSC data, from March 15 to 21, 1 person was diagnosed with influenza in Lithuania, in the previous week (March 8 to 14) 1 patient with influenza also became ill.
Photo by Julius Kalinskas / 15min / Saulius Čaplinskas
Safeguards helped
Doctor of Medical Sciences prof. Saulius Čaplinskas considered that such a decrease in the incidence of influenza and VHCV may be due to the fact that the protective measures applied to control the coronavirus pandemic also helped prevent other diseases.
“On the one hand, when a virus that is transmitted by the same routes begins to spread, which spreads faster and faster and worsens more people, it seems to take the place of other viruses. The second thing, when people began to be careful, use universal protective equipment, avoid contact, keep their distance, wear masks, disinfect hands and surfaces, they simply cannot spread other diseases, ”explained the infectious disease specialist.
According to S. Čaplinskas, we could have problems because of this already this fall.
“The flu is said to migrate with birds; the disease cycle is really similar. It goes without saying that the flu will reappear in the fall. Another question is whether or not it will be displaced by a ‘worse’ coronavirus from the same way.
In any case, if there were few people with the flu this year, most people do not have natural immunity. It is likely that the flu will spread much faster next season, there will be more susceptible people ”, explained the professor.
The flu will likely spread much faster next season; there will be more susceptible people
Possibly inaccurate statistics
According to S. Čaplinskas, the flu statistics may not be reliable.
According to him, the NVSC simply does not have the resources and resources to select all confirmed cases of influenza from the electronic health system and relies on rapid tests that are performed when patients are admitted to hospitals.
“This year’s flu statistics should be viewed with great caution. On the one hand, the coronavirus actually overshadowed the flu because protective measures were activated. However, it should be noted that when the whole focus was on COVID-19, it is possible that the flu was simply not diagnosed or not included in the statistics.
It is necessary to look, maybe it is in e-health, but the NVSC simply does not take the data, then it would mean that they provide distorted information, “said the infectious diseases specialist.
According to data from the National Public Health Laboratory (NSPL), no samples have been taken for the detection of influenza virus in Lithuania in the last two weeks, therefore no influenza virus has been isolated.
AFP / Scanpix photo / Influenza vaccine injection
Vaccines May Help
“Comparing the coronavirus with influenza, on the one hand, the evolution of influenza is quite fast. On the other hand, vaccine updates have to happen quite frequently – scientists have to guess which strain of man in a year or two. The vaccine production process takes a long time. Influenza has many different unique properties, ”emphasized G. Dudas, a researcher who studies viruses.
According to the NVSC, in the 2019-2020 season, 1.1 million people were vaccinated against seasonal influenza on their own. population.
167 thousand were vaccinated with state funds. people at risk.
This flu season, residents have become much more active in vaccinating.
Comparing the number of people who received vaccines with state funds, with last year’s indicators, 41 thousand people were vaccinated against influenza. more people.
According to preliminary data for 2020-2021, 208 thousand have already been vaccinated with state funds. populations at risk.
The NVSC does not have information on how many people have been vaccinated with their own funds.
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